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Who's the #18 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who's the number 18 prospect?  

97 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the number 18 prospect?

    • Ryan Adams
      20
    • Brad Bergesen
      65
    • Oliver Drake
      1
    • Greg Miclat
      11
    • Chad Thall
      0


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I don't care. It's not that drastically different.

Honestly, I don't look at the previous year's list when I put together the new list for the most part. I have a whole other year of data to go off of and sometimes that means guys slip and sometimes it means they rise

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Honestly, I don't look at the previous year's list when I put together the new list for the most part. I have a whole other year of data to go off of and sometimes that means guys slip and sometimes it means they rise.

Well, I do realize that, but it's hard to see Bergesen's 2008 performance as anything other than extremely positive. I mean the guy was Eastern League pitcher of the year, led the league in wins (even though he didn't join the league until he had pitched 4 games at Frederick) and was 6th in the league in ERA. He goes much deeper into games than any of our other pitchers, has the best K/BB ratio and the lowest BB rate. At this point I feel he's being overlooked because he doesn't strike out a lot of batters. I've never been someone who believes that a low K rate dooms a pitcher so long as he does other things well. And Bergesen did a lot of other things very well this year.

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Low K rate plus the inability to get Double-A left-handers out concerns me very much. It is almost unheard of to see a guy with his K rate have long term success in the major leagues. Now, maybe with his very good control or his ability to make some adjustments he'll find a way to get left-handers out more effectively, but until I see it, I have concerns.

Also, you know better than to use minor league awards to make an argument. Go take a look at John Stephens Double-A stats and make the same argument for him.

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Low K rate plus the inability to get Double-A left-handers out concerns me very much. It is almost unheard of to see a guy with his K rate have long term success in the major leagues. Now, maybe with his very good control or his ability to make some adjustments he'll find a way to get left-handers out more effectively, but until I see it, I have concerns.

Also, you know better than to use minor league awards to make an argument. Go take a look at John Stephens Double-A stats and make the same argument for him.

I had blocked John Stephens out of my mind... ;)

I have concerns about Bergesen, too. Frankly, Bergesen's difficulties vs. lefties worries me more than his K rate. By the way, of his 27 BB's (already a very low rate), only 9 were vs. RHB.

I just think that when we're on this part of the list, it's time to focus on what a player can do and has done. I prefer a guy who has had good success despite having some limitations, to a guy who hasn't really had a chance to show what his limitations are and whether he can succeed against higher-level competition.

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I had blocked John Stephens out of my mind... ;)

I have concerns about Bergesen, too. Frankly, Bergesen's difficulties vs. lefties worries me more than his K rate. By the way, of his 27 BB's (already a very low rate), only 9 were vs. RHB.

I just think that when we're on this part of the list, it's time to focus on what a player can do and has done. I prefer a guy who has had good success despite having some limitations, to a guy who hasn't really had a chance to show what his limitations are and whether he can succeed against higher-level competition.

You mean like Montanez?? ;) Looks like I may agree with you.. :D

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You mean like Montanez?? ;) Looks like I may agree with you.. :D

I have no problem with where you put Montanez. I would have ranked Bergesen ahead of him, but that's a pretty close call. Montanez has shown us that he can go to the majors and not embarass himself at the plate. That is no small thing. Whether he's got any upside beyond the game he showed in the majors this year is a question, but even if he doesn't, he's a decent ML 4th OF.

I guess you can just say I'm more optimistic about Bergesen than you are, despite his flaws. I'm not sure he'll make it, but to me what he did in 2008 was impressive, and I've always liked control pitchers.

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I have concerns about Bergesen, too. Frankly, Bergesen's difficulties vs. lefties worries me more than his K rate. By the way, of his 27 BB's (already a very low rate), only 9 were vs. RHB.

This shouldn't be discounted. When you have a hard time getting hitters out, you try to be too perfect and you walk more guys.

Unless Bergesen can develop some sort of out pitch against LHers, I'll be very worried. I'd expect his BB rate to go up, and thus his effectiveness to go down if/when he's promoted to Baltimore.

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Then go look at Josh Towers' stats, which are similar as 22 year olds in AA.

Towers is the guy I think of when we debate Brad. And that is not becuase I have an analytical sense of their stuff, but rather I remember yearning for a guy on the O's staff that threw strikes (seems like things never change) and watching Twoers get guys out with his control in the MiLs. I must admit if we could get one season out of Brad in 2009 or 2010 as good as Towers 2005 season for Toronto, I would take it.

For you guys that are more knowledgeable, are there similarities in the scouting reports on the two of them. I seem to remember that Towers was more of a fly ball guy, which is clearly an advantage that Brad has.

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Then go look at Josh Towers' stats, which are similar as 22 year olds in AA.

I'd say that's a very fair comp. The main difference I see is that Bergesen gives up fewer hits and a lot fewer HRs. But I'd say that I wouldn't expect Bergesen to have a much better major league career than Towers - he'd probably be pretty similar.

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