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Who's the #18 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who's the number 18 prospect?  

97 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the number 18 prospect?

    • Ryan Adams
      20
    • Brad Bergesen
      65
    • Oliver Drake
      1
    • Greg Miclat
      11
    • Chad Thall
      0


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I think Bergesen can be a solid 5th starter starting next year, which I would think is deserving of the 18th spot on this list.

If by "next year" you mean 2009, I don't think he is ready. He should spend most of the year at AAA and work on developing an out pitch vs. lefties. We could see him in Baltimore after the all-star break if things go well but I don't see him breaking camp with the team.

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If by "next year" you mean 2009, I don't think he is ready. He should spend most of the year at AAA and work on developing an out pitch vs. lefties. We could see him in Baltimore after the all-star break if things go well but I don't see him breaking camp with the team.

Sorry, should have said "at some point next year", I agree with you.

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Silva is a pretty good comp for Bergesen and I agree, if Bergesen can have a Silva-like career we should be pretty happy about it.

Like I'll say in his wrap up, I believe Bergesen may be able to have a decent career as a 5th starter if he can figure a way to get lefties out a little bit more. I'm more worried about his inability to get lefties out than his poor K/9 rate. He's a groundball pitcher who doesn't walk many guys so he should able to have some success. It might not come right away, but he's shown the ability to make adjustments and I believe he's got the pitchability to do that.

Frankly, considering his change up is a pretty good pitch, I'm surprised he doesn't use it more against the lefties since it would seem to give him the best chance to get them out.

That's encouraging news.

In other encouraging news, Brad Bergesen is in the 18-20 range on our prospect list. I'd say 3 or 4 years ago, he woulda be in our top 10 or damn close to it.

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And, I know this means very little, but if Bergesen is our back of the rotation guy, then sadly MANY much more talented guys will have failed ofr us, namely Guthrie, Olson, Penn, Liz, Patton, Albers, Tillman, Matusz, Erbe, Spoone, Butler and even Cabrera.

I disagree with that. We don't know if he'll develop a pitch to get lefties out. If he does that one thing... he'll be a solid major league starter, imo - maybe even a number 3 starter. I'm not saying the odds are that he'll develop that pitch, but it's the unknown that prevents us from making a conclusion either way on him.

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Well, I do realize that, but it's hard to see Bergesen's 2008 performance as anything other than extremely positive.

Yeah, but I agree with Tony... the pool is deeper. Last year the minors were sparse enough he could've been a 10-15 type guy. Bergesen this year, even with his great 2008 season could fall lower despite being better. If he had a lesser year, he wouldn't make the top 40.

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I disagree with that. We don't know if he'll develop a pitch to get lefties out. If he does that one thing... he'll be a solid major league starter, imo - maybe even a number 3 starter. I'm not saying the odds are that he'll develop that pitch, but it's the unknown that prevents us from making a conclusion either way on him.

He's done enough now to make me believe that he can pitch in the major leagues, at least as a RH reliever. If he continues to learn and becomes more effective against lefties, his command (excellent k/bb ratio), ability to get ground balls (also extremely good), and corresponding ability to keep the ball in the yard he could also be a solid back end of the rotation starter. I don't see him beating out Tillman, Matusz or Arrieta for a top 3 spot, but he could follow those guys and be a solid, innings eating #4 or 5.

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And, I know this means very little, but if Bergesen is our back of the rotation guy, then sadly MANY much more talented guys will have failed ofr us, namely Guthrie, Olson, Penn, Liz, Patton, Albers, Tillman, Matusz, Erbe, Spoone, Butler and even Cabrera.

Olson and Liz have already displayed plenty of chinks in their armor; Patton, Albers, Butler and Spoone have been injured already; Cabrera may not even be offered arbitration; and when they commit a spot Penn, he'll come down with the bubonic plague or something. That leaves Guthrie, Tilman, Matusz, Erbe - and you left out Arrieta. Is Bergesen better than any of those 5? I don't think so, but could you see a scenario were Guthrie is traded for a quality short stop prospect - Andrus, Escobar, Wood?

Actually, I think Guthrie is the only player, other than Roberts or Markakis (and he ain't going anywhere unless he makes it plain he doesn't want to sign long-term), that would get us a major return in a trade. If we signed Burnett or Garland and another starter like Byrd or Lowe, I could see us trading Guthrie to get a Jones-like player at SS, 3B or 1B.

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Brad Bergeson's 2008 stat line actually reminds me of Jeff Ballard's 1987 stat line to some extent.

Ballard was a prospect back in the late 80s for those that remember. He was drafted out of Stanford and ascended quickly through the minor leagues system, making it to the Orioles within two years. At the time, the Orioles were no longer the team that had experienced sustained success over 25 years. Their major league team was floundering and the farm system was bare. Ballard was one of the few prospects the team had at the time. Here was his abbreviated stat line from his AAA year in 1987, where he went 13-4:

Ballard

age 23, AAA, 160.1 IP, 8.48 H/9, 1.96 BB/9, 6.40 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 3.09 ERA

Bergeson

age 22, AA, 148 IP, 8.70 H/9, 1.64 BB/9, 4.38 K/9, 1.15 WHIP, 3.22 ERA

Ballard did have a very fine 1989 season with the Orioles, which was the year that the Orioles had their "Why not" season. He actually received some Cy Young consideration that year, finishing 6th in the voting. But that proved to be a fluky season and Ballard was a nondescript below average major league pitcher the rest of his career. By 1992, he was back in the minors. The Pirates gave him a chance for a couple of years but he was out of baseball at age 30.

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Olson and Liz have already displayed plenty of chinks in their armor; Patton, Albers, Butler and Spoone have been injured already; Cabrera may not even be offered arbitration; and when they commit a spot Penn, he'll come down with the bubonic plague or something. That leaves Guthrie, Tilman, Matusz, Erbe - and you left out Arrieta. Is Bergesen better than any of those 5? I don't think so, but could you see a scenario were Guthrie is traded for a quality short stop prospect - Andrus, Escobar, Wood?

Actually, I think Guthrie is the only player, other than Roberts or Markakis (and he ain't going anywhere unless he makes it plain he doesn't want to sign long-term), that would get us a major return in a trade. If we signed Burnett or Garland and another starter like Byrd or Lowe, I could see us trading Guthrie to get a Jones-like player at SS, 3B or 1B.

And you continue to forget about Hernandez and Britton!!!

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