Trade Central Station

[Stotle]

The K's are nice and why I like his BP upside...if you can't go deep into games in the minors, you won't in the majors....if you can't command your pitches against single and double a hitters, you can't in the majors and there really isn't much of a sign that is going to change.

I think DH has the potential to be a big time arm out of the pen but that's about it.

I doubt you would find a GM in baseball who would say DH is worth more than Sonnanstine is.

See my post directly prior. There were 111 pitchers more valuable than Sonnanstine this year. DH has enough upside that I'd wager every GM would take him over Sonnanstine.

[Intimidator301]

Yeah, it's all really a mental exercise. The question is one of valuation, and whether or not you trade something of value for Sonnanstine. I don't disagree for one minute that Sonnanstine would be one of BAL's best five starters on last year's staff. That is more an indictment on BAL's staff than a ringing endorsement for Sonnanstine. You should be able to fill your staff with Sonnanstine-like production without giving up a power arm like Hernandez. If TAM would take a platoon OF/DH like Scott for Sonnanstine, I have no problem with it.

True, our starting staff was hideous last year. But, saying that Sonnanstine being part of our staff is an indictment of how bad it is isn't being fair. Sonnanstine is part of a staff now that includes Kazmir, Shields, and Garza. Would you not trade our current staff for that any day of the week?

I'd hate to give up on Hernandez, but there's no guarantee he will make it. You point out that guys like Sonnanstine are easy to find, yet the minors are full of arms like David Hernandez that never makes it. Ill take a chance on a guy who's actually doing it at the ML level over a maybe.

Now, would I rather give up a lesser guy to get Sonnanstine? Absolutely. You are correct there.

Sonnanstine may be getting pushed out the door by possibly the best prospect in all of baseball, and definately the best pitching prospect. So, that's not a knock against him.

If we had him, maybe in 2 years he's being pushed out the door by Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta. But, ill take him until then.

[Sports Guy]

I didn't want to resort to stats, mainly because I think they are being incorrectly applied here, but I'm giving in. The argument has been made that Sonnanstine is better/more valuable than Guthrie.

VORP for all pitchers in ML this year:

Guthrie - 39.9 (Rank 31 among all ML pitchers)

Sonnanstine - 19.1 (Rank 112 among all ML pitchers)

If you shrink the list to include only pitchers with 125+ IP, Guthrie stays at 31 and Sonnanstine jumps to 72. So, the good news is there were only 40 pitchers with under 125 IP more valuable than Sonnanstine this year.

Again I say, this is not a good pitcher and it is not a mid-rotation pitcher. He's adequate filler for the back of a rotation.

K rate(stats for 2007 and 2008):

AS: 6.68/5.77

JG: 6.31/5.66

BB rate:

AS: 1.79/1.72

JG: 2.41/2.74

K/BB:

AS: 3.73/3.35

JG: 2.62/2.07

HR rate:

AS: 1.24/.98

JG: 1.18/1.13

So, after that, you can start to pile on the LOB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, etc...

This year, Sonnanstine threw 3 more innings in 2 more starts....Guthrie average about 1/3 of an inning pitched more per start than Sonnanstine did. A difference but a minimal one.

So really, OTHER THAN ERA, there really isn't a stat that suggest Guthrie is any better than Sonnanstine right now.

Sonnanstine has future predictors and age all in his favor as well.

BTW, Sonnanstine has a higher strike %, throws more first pitch strikes and they pretty much miss the same amount of bats

[Mackus]

I didn't want to resort to stats, mainly because I think they are being incorrectly applied here, but I'm giving in. The argument has been made that Sonnanstine is better/more valuable than Guthrie.

VORP for all pitchers in ML this year:

Guthrie - 39.9 (Rank 31 among all ML pitchers)

Sonnanstine - 19.1 (Rank 112 among all ML pitchers)

If you shrink the list to include only pitchers with 125+ IP, Guthrie stays at 31 and Sonnanstine jumps to 72. So, the good news is there were only 40 pitchers with under 125 IP more valuable than Sonnanstine this year.

Again I say, this is not a good pitcher and it is not a mid-rotation pitcher. He's adequate filler for the back of a rotation.

I totally agree that Guthrie is a level or two above Sonnanstine. Guthrie is a solid #2, IMO, Sonnanstine more of a #4.

[Sports Guy]

See my post directly prior. There were 111 pitchers more valuable than Sonnanstine this year. DH has enough upside that I'd wager every GM would take him over Sonnanstine.

LOL...That is so foolish but whatever.

[GeorgiaBird]

See my post directly prior. There were 111 pitchers more valuable than Sonnanstine this year. DH has enough upside that I'd wager every GM would take him over Sonnanstine.

This discussion is all over the place, but I don't understand this at all. It seems you are saying Guthrie is better than Sonnanstine (and I would agree), so therefore DH is better than Sonnanstine? How do you figure?

And are you saying that you believe every GM would trade Sonnanstine for DH straight up right now? I would wager not a single one would.

[Stotle]

True, our starting staff was hideous last year. But, saying that Sonnanstine being part of our staff is an indictment of how bad it is isn't being fair. Sonnanstine is part of a staff now that includes Kazmir, Shields, and Garza. Would you not trade our current staff for that any day of the week?

I'd hate to give up on Hernandez, but there's no guarantee he will make it. You point out that guys like Sonnanstine are easy to find, yet the minors are full of arms like David Hernandez that never makes it. Ill take a chance on a guy who's actually doing it at the ML level over a maybe.

Now, would I rather give up a lesser guy to get Sonnanstine? Absolutely. You are correct there.

Sonnanstine may be getting pushed out the door by possibly the best prospect in all of baseball, and definately the best pitching prospect. So, that's not a knock against him.

If we had him, maybe in 2 years he's being pushed out the door by Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta. But, ill take him until then.

My issue is Sonnanstine may be "doing it" at the ML level, but he isn't really that impressive while he does it, and his production is easily replaceable.

Orioles with a higher VORP than Sonnanstine this year:

Guthrie

Johnson

I absolutely take him if I have him in my system. I don't give anything up to get him.

The bolded misses the point a bit, because the other quality pitchers on the staff have nothing to do with Sonnanstine. In fact, Jackson's production was more valuable this year than Sonnanstine. So was Howell's and Balfour's.

[Sports Guy]

This discussion is all over the place, but I don't understand this at all. It seems you are saying Guthrie is better than Sonnanstine (and I would agree), so therefore DH is better than Sonnanstine? How do you figure?

And are you saying that you believe every GM would trade Sonnanstine for DH straight up right now? I would wager not a single one would.

There is no doubt that every GM would say no to that deal.

[Stotle]

This discussion is all over the place, but I don't understand this at all. It seems you are saying Guthrie is better than Sonnanstine (and I would agree), so therefore DH is better than Sonnanstine? How do you figure?

And are you saying that you believe every GM would trade Sonnanstine for DH straight up right now? I would wager not a single one would.

No, two separate points. One was that Guthrie's production was more valuable than Sonnanstine's by a very wide margin.

The second was that there are 40 pitchers with fewer than 125 IP that had more valuable production than Sonnanstine. This is noteworthy in that pitchers with more IP have a leg up in VORP, since they have a bigger impact over the season.

DH still has starter potential, and could certainly be a 2-pitch power arm in the pen. Sonnanstine is what he is and isn't bringing that much to the table at the end of the day.

[Sports Guy]

No, two separate points. One was that Guthrie's production was more valuable than Sonnanstine's by a very wide margin.

The second was that there are 40 pitchers with fewer than 125 IP that had more valuable production than Sonnanstine. This is noteworthy in that pitchers with more IP have a leg up in VORP, since they have a bigger impact over the season.

DH still has starter potential, and could certainly be a 2-pitch power arm in the pen. Sonnanstine is what he is and isn't bringing that much to the table at the end of the day.

I find it funny that you are picking and choosing the one stat you want to use while ignoring the better stats out there and the ones with more predictive value.

[Stotle]

I find it funny that you are picking and choosing the one stat you want to use while ignoring the better stats out there and the ones with more predictive value.

VORP is a metric, not a stat. It incorporates, I believe, every stat you have referenced. Why is it funny?

[GeorgiaBird]

No, two separate points. One was that Guthrie's production was more valuable than Sonnanstine's by a very wide margin.

The second was that there are 40 pitchers with fewer than 125 IP that had more valuable production than Sonnanstine. This is noteworthy in that pitchers with more IP have a leg up in VORP, since they have a bigger impact over the season.

DH still has starter potential, and could certainly be a 2-pitch power arm in the pen. Sonnanstine is what he is and isn't bringing that much to the table at the end of the day.

I love potential, and potential is really what discussion boards are all about. But I would caution against putting too much into potential. To turn things around from your last graph, DH, you are right, could be anything. He could turn into a 2-pitch power arm, or he could freak out in AAA and never get a cup of coffee. Sonnanstine, as you say, is what he is. He is getting outs in the majors, and as we saw first hand with all of our kids with great arms who struggled this year that is worth its weight in gold.

It isn't very sexy, and he doesn't have potential that makes one daydream, perhaps, but be careful not to underestimate what he is, and what he brings, when focusing too much on what he isn't.

[Sports Guy]

VORP is a metric, not a stat. It incorporates, I believe, every stat you have referenced. Why is it funny?

It doesn't incorporate FIP, BABIP and LOB%.

It also doesn't give you the best predictive measure.

And it is very funny that they have Edwin Jackson as the better starter this year when AS is better in practically every stat.

As 1970 has shown several times, K/BB ratio is the best stat to look at(and yes i know you don't want to look at that stat because it blows a hole in yoru argument...you only want to find a stat that says he isn't good..we got it).

[Stotle]

I love potential, and potential is really what discussion boards are all about. But I would caution against putting too much into potential. To turn things around from your last graph, DH, you are right, could be anything. He could turn into a 2-pitch power arm, or he could freak out in AAA and never get a cup of coffee. Sonnanstine, as you say, is what he is. He is getting outs in the majors, and as we saw first hand with all of our kids with great arms who struggled this year that is worth its weight in gold.

It isn't very sexy, and he doesn't have potential that makes one daydream, perhaps, but be careful not to underestimate what he is, and what he brings, when focusing too much on what he isn't.

I agree, and I admit to erring in stating that every GM would trade Sonnastine for Hernandez. I can't back that up, and GMs are generally conservative enough that there would be more low-ceiling filler in there.

What you write is true -- DH is quite far from a sure thing, starter or pen.

I don't think I am underestimating Sonnanstine, I think I have a firm grasp. He's a great asset if you have him and need rotation filler. Someone to take the mound that you know will be around the strikezone and keep the game moving. But he isn't and will never be a difference maker.

I think I'm coming off as more down on Sonnanstine that what he really is. It's great to have a #5 starter. I hope and pray that Bergesen can come close to putting it together at the ML level like Sonnanstine has. But I don't see how the argument can be made that someone would feel good marching Sonnanstine out there to go head-to-head with Ervin Santana, John Danks or Jon Lester.

I'm not saying you are claiming this, but the argument is floating around.

[Stotle]

It doesn't incorporate FIP, BABIP and LOB%.

It also doesn't give you the best predictive measure.

And it is very funny that they have Edwin Jackson as the better starter this year when AS is better in practically every stat.

As 1970 has shown several times, K/BB ratio is the best stat to look at(and yes i know you don't want to look at that stat because it blows a hole in yoru argument...you only want to find a stat that says he isn't good..we got it).

I've addressed BABIP and BB/K plenty of times in this thread. His BB/K is great because of walks, but he gives it right back with hits (around 212 in around 190 IP). BABIP is always going to be worse for pitchers who are more hittable (as will HR rate -- how is Sonnanstines, I haven't checked). My BABIP would likely be in the .400s or .500s. Does that make me really unlucky or really hittable?