Trade Central Station

[Intimidator301]

My issue is Sonnanstine may be "doing it" at the ML level, but he isn't really that impressive while he does it, and his production is easily replaceable.

Orioles with a higher VORP than Sonnanstine this year:

Guthrie

Johnson

I absolutely take him if I have him in my system. I don't give anything up to get him.

The bolded misses the point a bit, because the other quality pitchers on the staff have nothing to do with Sonnanstine. In fact, Jackson's production was more valuable this year than Sonnanstine. So was Howell's and Balfour's.

I mentioned the quality of the TB staff, because I got the impression that you were saying Sonnanstine is only starting, because the rest of the O's staff was so bad. If I took that the wrong way, I apologize.

Would you put David Hernandez in the #4 spot in the O's 2009 rotation, and feel comfortable? I'm not being sarcastic, I just wanr your opinion. Could David Hernandez right now, put up the numbers Andy Sonnanstine is?

[Stotle]

I mentioned the quality of the TB staff, because I got the impression that you were saying Sonnanstine is only starting, because the rest of the O's staff was so bad. If I took that the wrong way, I apologize.

Would you put David Hernandez in the #4 spot in the O's 2009 rotation, and feel comfortable? I'm not being sarcastic, I just wanr your opinion. Could David Hernandez right now, put up the numbers Andy Sonnanstine is?

No way. Not nearly enough command or development of his changeup. I'd consider him for the bullpen, though, if I didn't have the luxury of developing him further (which BAL has). And I'm not sure he wouldn't prove more valuable in the pen than Sonnanstine is starting. I wouldn't bet on it in '09, but it wouldn't surprise me, either.

[Singleton]

I agree, and I admit to erring in stating that every GM would trade Sonnastine for Hernandez. I can't back that up, and GMs are generally conservative enough that there would be more low-ceiling filler in there.

What you write is true -- DH is quite far from a sure thing, starter or pen.

I don't think I am underestimating Sonnanstine, I think I have a firm grasp. He's a great asset if you have him and need rotation filler. Someone to take the mound that you know will be around the strikezone and keep the game moving. But he isn't and will never be a difference maker.

I think I'm coming off as more down on Sonnanstine that what he really is. It's great to have a #5 starter. I hope and pray that Bergesen can come close to putting it together at the ML level like Sonnanstine has. But I don't see how the argument can be made that someone would feel good marching Sonnanstine out there to go head-to-head with Ervin Santana, John Danks or Jon Lester.

I'm not saying you are claiming this, but the argument is floating around.

There's a wide gulf between #5 starter and E. Santana, Danks and Lester -- 3 of the better young pitchers around.

[Stotle]

There's a wide gulf between #5 starter and E. Santana, Danks and Lester -- 3 of the better young pitchers around.

I absolutely agree. Which is to say there is a wide gulf between Andy Sonnanstine and the #3 pitchers around the league.

[Singleton]

I absolutely agree. Which is to say there is a wide gulf between Andy Sonnanstine and the #3 pitchers around the league.

Ah-ha. I think i see where our disagreement lies. Assuming that the O's do not make an unexpected big free agent splash in the pitching market and accounting for normal injuries and disappointments, how long do you think it will be before we have a #3 starter the quality of the 3 you mentioned above?

[Stotle]

Ah-ha. I think i see where our disagreement lies. Assuming that the O's do not make an unexpected big free agent splash in the pitching market and accounting for normal injuries and disappointments, how long do you think it will be before we have a #3 starter the quality of the 3 you mentioned above?

Without taking injuries andnormal MiL attrition into account, Arrieta is the best bet for a number 3 (if you are willing to grant me that Tillman/Matusz are being disregarded for a slightly higher ceiling). I'd put his arrival at 2010. Olson has #3 stuff, but took a bit of a step back this year. I wouldn't give up on him as a future #3, but I wouldn't bank on it either. Guthrie straddles the 2/3 line, though I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up closer to 2 or 3 -- he can go either way.

Currently in the system, Bundy, Arrieta and Spoone would fit my mold as likely #3s.

Arrieta - 2010

Spoone - 2010/11 (if healthy next year)

Bundy - 2011/12

Again, typical MiL attrition would suggest all three will not hit this projection, and perhaps Matusz/Tillman turn out to be #3s instead of front-end guys.

[Ruzious]

Without taking injuries andnormal MiL attrition into account, Arrieta is the best bet for a number 3 (if you are willing to grant me that Tillman/Matusz are being disregarded for a slightly higher ceiling). I'd put his arrival at 2010. Olson has #3 stuff, but took a bit of a step back this year. I wouldn't give up on him as a future #3, but I wouldn't bank on it either. Guthrie straddles the 2/3 line, though I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up closer to 2 or 3 -- he can go either way.

Currently in the system, Bundy, Arrieta and Spoone would fit my mold as likely #3s.

Arrieta - 2010

Spoone - 2010/11 (if healthy next year)

Bundy - 2011/12

Again, typical MiL attrition would suggest all three will not hit this projection, and perhaps Matusz/Tillman turn out to be #3s instead of front-end guys.

Good stuff. Of the pitchers I've seen, the only thing I strongly disagree with is Olson's stuff. I think I'm the only one here who has never been impressed with his stuff. He's usually got a nice curveball, but that's about it. His fastball is slow and straight. I'd bet real money that Sonnanstine will be a much more successful pitcher in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

I've addressed BABIP and BB/K plenty of times in this thread. His BB/K is great because of walks, but he gives it right back with hits (around 212 in around 190 IP). BABIP is always going to be worse for pitchers who are more hittable (as will HR rate -- how is Sonnanstines, I haven't checked). My BABIP would likely be in the .400s or .500s. Does that make me really unlucky or really hittable?

Guthrie has a higher LD% than Sonnanstine does. AS had the 5th best LD% in the AL and had he qualified last year, he would have been tied with Dice K for 19th...barely behind guys like Halladay, Haren and Bedard.

[Stotle]

Guthrie has a higher LD% than Sonnanstine does. AS had the 5th best LD% in the AL and had he qualified last year, he would have been tied with Dice K for 19th...barely behind guys like Halladay, Haren and Bedard.

We're not really resorting to LD%. An arbitrary stat marked differently by each scorekeeper? Or have there been improvements in how this stat is tracked?

[Sports Guy]

We're not really resorting to LD%. An arbitrary stat marked differently by each scorekeeper? Or have there been improvements in how this stat is tracked?

Your argument is he gets hit harder because he has poor stuff....I just showed another stat that shows you to be completely wrong.

Here is what you are coming to the table with:

1) Radar gun

2) VORP

That's it....nothing else supports your argument.

Every other peripheral stat blows your argument out of the water and you keep bringing up excuses as to why those stats don't matter.

We get it, you would prefer the DCab's of the world...Glad to hear it...You can continue to field teams where the starters throw 100 miles per hour and has no idea where it is going to go.

[Stotle]

Your argument is he gets hit harder because he has poor stuff....I just showed another stat that shows you to be completely wrong.

Here is what you are coming to the table with:

1) Radar gun

2) VORP

That's it....nothing else supports your argument.

Every other peripheral stat blows your argument out of the water and you keep bringing up excuses as to why those stats don't matter.

We get it, you would prefer the DCab's of the world...Glad to hear it...You can continue to field teams where the starters throw 100 miles per hour and has no idea where it is going to go.

Oh I don't think my argument is limited to that. I was just thinking we could do better than using an stat that is inconsistently applied on a nightly basis. We may just be at the end of the line with the back-and-forth, but I had fun. Sounds like you're getting a little touchy, though. I prefer a rotation of DCabs? Hyperbole for effect should be beneath you...

[Sports Guy]

Oh I don't think my argument is limited to that. I was just thinking we could do better than using an stat that is inconsistently applied on a nightly basis. We may just be at the end of the line with the back-and-forth, but I had fun. Sounds like you're getting a little touchy, though. I prefer a rotation of DCabs? Hyperbole for effect should be beneath you...

Well, you do prefer Hernandez and you seem to clearly prefer "Scout guys"...Radar gun guys, etc....

BTW, David Hernandez, thus far, averages more hits per 9 IP than Sonnanstine did in the minors.(i know, another stat that doesn't matter...just saying it anyway)

[Jimbo81]

I'm going to throw a question out there. If Jake peavy is available which all reports say he is, does that mean that maybe Chris Young is out there as well? I would we be interested in a Young and Greene trade.

Let's start with Reimold, D Hernandez, and maybe someone else. I'm not really sure of the value of Young and the down year for Greene.

I guess my thinking is this would almost be like the Garza, Bartlett trade. Although I might just be really tired.

[Jimbo81]

Please delete

[SteelerG]

I need Pete to open the wallet this offseason...

Here is my Free Agent Wish List:

1B: Mark Teixeira: 6/102

SS: Cesar Izturis: 3/10

3B: Joe Crede 3/18

OF: Pat Burrell 4/64

SP: A.J. Burnett 5/75

SP: Ben Sheets 5/65

Lineup:

2B: Roberts

RF: Markakis

LF: Burrell

1B: Teixeira

DH: Huff

3B: Crede

C: Wieters

CF: Jones

SS: Izturis