Ask me about a prospect. (Early July)

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Pickles said:

Compare/contrast Drew Rom and Eduardo Rodriguez as prospects.

Interesting. Rom has better command than Rodriguez had at the same stage but Rodriguez threw harder. Rom has success because he does a really good job of pitching with four pitches. He has a much better changeup than Wells even though they have similar velocity of 89-90. I was hoping for a velocity bump when he came back after the year off, but from what I've heard on broadcasts, it sounds like he's still in that 88-90, t91 range. 

I still think he has a chance to be a left-handed Zach Davies.

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

Tony;

What do you see in Blaine Knights Orioles future: Do you see him as a potential starter, or more of a bullpen pitcher? 

Knight has really been impressive this year and is probably the biggest surprise in the system since 2019. He's sitting 93-96 from what I've been seeing, with swing and miss curveball and an improved change. He also adds in a slider. 

We haven't seen him throw over 82 pitches this year so we don't know how he'll hold up after that, but I have not seen a noticeable change in stuff towards that 80 range, though to be fair, I don't have radar gun readings on every pitch.

Right now he's a starter for me and has quickly moved himself into the top 20 and maybe top ten soon.

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, DanS said:

What do you think of Patrick Dorrian?

Dorrian is really interesting because he's not only showed pretty good plate discipline but has shown power to all fields. His problems offensively are that he really struggles against lefties so he might be a platoon guy and he can be fooled by good off-speed stuff. Defensively he's a bit stiff at 3B and his throws are inconsistent. Is he brutal? No, but I do think he would probably be a below average defensive third baseman without some improvements. 

The first major league comp I could think of when thinking about Dorrian was Mike Pagliarulo with the Yankees back in the 80s. Grant it Pags was already in the majors at 25-years old, but it seems like Dorrian would be that kind of player.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Interesting. Rom has better command than Rodriguez had at the same stage but Rodriguez threw harder. Rom has success because he does a really good job of pitching with four pitches. He has a much better changeup than Wells even though they have similar velocity of 89-90. I was hoping for a velocity bump when he came back after the year off, but from what I've heard on broadcasts, it sounds like he's still in that 88-90, t91 range. 

I still think he has a chance to be a left-handed Zach Davies.

And a left-handed Davies looks an awful lot like Eduardo Rodriguez.

[NCRaven]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

And a left-handed Davies looks an awful lot like Eduardo Rodriguez.

I don't think they're similar in any way.  Davies has become an average back of the rotation starter.  Rodriquez can dominate.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think they're similar in any way.  Davies has become an average back of the rotation starter.  Rodriquez can dominate.

Doesn't ERod throw a lot harder?

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Doesn't ERod throw a lot harder?

E-Rod's velocity is a little better.  Both than Davies and Rom.  That's kind of what I was hoping to get Tony to elucidate on. What made E-Rod a top 50 global prospect, already getting top 100 talk at this point in his career, and Rom basically get no play at all, despite very similar results and similar profiles.  Is it just the 3 mph difference in their fastballs?

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think they're similar in any way.  Davies has become an average back of the rotation starter.  Rodriquez can dominate.

I mean, I think E-Rod is a cut above but they're results are pretty similar.

E-Rod: 788 IP ERA+ 109 WAR 13.6

Davies: 772 IP ERA+ 111 WAR 10.3

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

E-Rod's velocity is a little better.  Both than Davies and Rom.  That's kind of what I was hoping to get Tony to elucidate on. What made E-Rod a top 50 global prospect, already getting top 100 talk at this point in his career, and Rom basically get no play at all, despite very similar results and similar profiles.  Is it just the 3 mph difference in their fastballs?

Probably.  Velocity matters to the upside.  Good reason why I think a lot of these rankings are bs.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

And a left-handed Davies looks an awful lot like Eduardo Rodriguez.

Not really.  Davies averages 6.4 K/9, Rodriguez 9.3 K/9.   Rodriguez throws a 93-94 mph fastball, Davies throws 87-88.   Rodriguez throws mostly 4-seamers, Davies mostly two seamers.   Davies throws a curve, Rodriguez doesn’t use one.   Their repertoires are not very alike at all.   

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Not really.  Davies averages 6.4 K/9, Rodriguez 9.3 K/9.   Rodriguez throws a 93-94 mph fastball, Davies throws 87-88.   Rodriguez throws mostly 4-seamers, Davies mostly two seamers.   Davies throws a curve, Rodriguez doesn’t use one.   Their repertoires are not very alike at all.   

You're not wrong.  But look at their results I posted above.  Very, very similar.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably.  Velocity matters to the upside.  Good reason why I think a lot of these rankings are bs.

I mean velocity is important.  I'm not trying to deny that.  I was just wondering if it wasn't anything more.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're not wrong.  But look at their results I posted above.  Very, very similar.

Their bottom line results are similar.   They way they get there is very different.  Rom is more stylistically similar to Davies than EdRod, though he’s a lefty.  

[Pickles]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Their bottom line results are similar.   They way they get there is very different.  Rom is more stylistically similar to Davies than EdRod, though he’s a lefty.  

Again, you're not wrong, but it is important to note that when Rodriguez started getting positive prospect writeups he didn't have the velocity he later developed.  He started getting noticed as a 19 year old- nationally- and the reports were more about "four pitches," "command/control," "pitchability."  Now Tony was in on Rodriguez a year or two before the national guys, saying much the things they would come to say.

Now, he's saying many of the same things about this kid.  And frankly Rom has better minor league numbers than Rodriguez, including significantly higher K rates.  So that's kind of what I'm asking:

1) Does this guy have that kind of upside?

2) It probably does include adding velocity.  I notice they're both listed at 6'2" but Rom is listed as 50 lbs lighter than Rodriguez.  What's the physical projection on Rom?  Does he look like he can add strength to his frame?

I guess I'm a real slut, but when I hear about a 19 year old lefty with "four pitches" and "command/control," I get all wet.

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, Pickles said:

Again, you're not wrong, but it is important to note that when Rodriguez started getting positive prospect writeups he didn't have the velocity he later developed.  He started getting noticed as a 19 year old- nationally- and the reports were more about "four pitches," "command/control," "pitchability."  Now Tony was in on Rodriguez a year or two before the national guys, saying much the things they would come to say.

Now, he's saying many of the same things about this kid.  And frankly Rom has better minor league numbers than Rodriguez, including significantly higher K rates.  So that's kind of what I'm asking:

1) Does this guy have that kind of upside?

2) It probably does include adding velocity.  I notice they're both listed at 6'2" but Rom is listed as 50 lbs lighter than Rodriguez.  What's the physical projection on Rom?  Does he look like he can add strength to his frame?

I guess I'm a real slut, but when I hear about a 19 year old lefty with "four pitches" and "command/control," I get all wet.

I am a big fan of the command/control guys.   But it’s interesting how sometimes they get to the majors and don’t exhibit the same command/control they were reputed to have in the minors. I’m not sure if it’s nerves, or just the superior ability of major league hitters to lay off pitches out of the zone.