Kevin Goldstein 10/4 chat on O’s topics

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Trading Hays because of either of those two would be incredibly stupid. 

Right because they are not ready.   By July they made look like much better players.  Look how much Mullins improved in 3 months.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The idea is to fill holes not create them.

No, the idea is to build the best team possible both short and long term.  It’s way harder to find what we need than what we have.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

Funny how whenever one of the position players that are in favor struggle it's injuries.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Right because they are not ready.   By July they made look like much better players.  Look how much Mullins improved in 3 months.

You don’t hold onto a guy, who has been up and down in his career and struggled to stay healthy,  for a few months worth of production if you can solve a greater position of need.

I really like Hays as a player and he finally stayed healthy for a majority of a season.  The question is, if someone values him enough to be part of a trade for a bigger piece of the pie, do you cash that chip in now?  For me, I would because as good as he is, OBP and injuries are still a concern (especially the injuries) and at age 26, I’m not sure I expect those things to get a whole lot better.  They certainly may but I wouldn’t bank on it if we can get the right guy back in trade.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny how whenever one of the position players that are in favor struggle it's injuries.

Hays can struggle himself to 3+ wins all he wants.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I agree with you. I think that was a lazy assessment. 

26 and somewhat healthy this season and he put up a 3.2bWAR. I don't know how much higher he can go, but that's a pretty decent full season.

If he's just THIS for the next few years he is quite valuable.  He isn't no second-division starter.  He may not have MVP upside, but I believe he has All-Star upside, though I don't expect him to have an extended run of half a decade like that.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Right because they are not ready.   By July they made look like much better players.  Look how much Mullins improved in 3 months.

My personal opinion is that Hays is better than either Neustrom or Stowers will be.   Especially Neustrom.   But it’s just my opinion, and there’s no way to know unless and until those two reach the majors and have several hundred at bats, if they get that far.   

That said, we need pitching very badly and if Hays couid bring a solid pitcher you’d have to consider it.  
 

[HowAboutThat]

When Trumbo was fumbling around in the outfield, I screamed constantly to put him at first base. His defense was about average at first, but we.had.someone.there………..ANYWAY…if we’d been able to put Trumbo at first, his time here would have been happier. MC is much faster and apparently more agile as well, so I think he’s going to do better at first than Trumbo did.

[MarCakes21]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays should be dangled in trades this offseason for a cost controlled starter or IFer…use him as part of the deal.

Really like Hays and would be happy if he was an everyday OFer for us next year but I don’t trust him to stay healthy.

Hays for Mondesi or Ketel Marte.  Who bites?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Hays for Mondesi or Ketel Marte.  Who bites?

I would guess KC says no and I would guess the Os say no to Marte.

Mondesi has shown well at SS but they keep moving him around.  His offense has dropped too but I don’t think that’s an unreasonable deal.  I would try to do better though.  I think Hays has more value as part of a package vs straight up.

Talked about him at the deadline but Brice Turang makes sense to me.  Avisail Garcia has a 10M mutual option for 2022.  Figure he walks.  Cain is declining and a FA after 2022.  Hays could make sense there.  Mancini also makes sense for them.  Those 2 to Milwaukee for Turang+ makes some sense. 

[jamalshw]

We went from thinking the team had too many OF options going into 2021 to being just enough without injuries. We saw Mountcastle is not an outfielder. We saw Stewart is what he is (which is a defensive liability with contact issues). We really have 3 outfielder starters ready for 2022: Hays, Mullins and Santander. Two of the three have injury issues. I like McKenna has a 4th OF and wouldn't mind him getting some regular ABs to see if he can find a middle ground between his 2021 AAA numbers and MLB numbers, but don't see the need to give him the spot right away. With Nuestrom and Stowers close and some others not far behind, it seems we have depth, but Hays still has some questions given his splits and Santander's health and regression from 2020 gives me pause. 

Given the quantity of options we have for the OF that figure to be ready within the next 18 months, we should be set there so I'm not opposed to trading someone if we get something of value back, but I'm not really looking at the infield as a spot of huge need. For 2022, sure, we are lacking, but Westburg, Henderson, Mayo, Norby, and Vavra may all be factors by sometime in the 2023 season. We can see what, if anything, we have in Mateo, Jones, Nevin, 

If I can trade Hays and/or Santander and get a solid ready now pitching option, I would take it, but short of that, I'm holding pat.  Ideally, I hold all the young pieces and look to add via free agency with fingers crossed the team will finally start spending. 

[Ruzious]

12 hours ago, Pickles said:

If he's just THIS for the next few years he is quite valuable.  He isn't no second-division starter.  He may not have MVP upside, but I believe he has All-Star upside, though I don't expect him to have an extended run of half a decade like that.

Amen.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if he represents the O's in an All-Star game or 2 before he's done.  From his comments in interviews, I think he's a student of the game who will will continue to improve his approach to at bats.   

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I would guess KC says no and I would guess the Os say no to Marte.

Mondesi has shown well at SS but they keep moving him around.  His offense has dropped too but I don’t think that’s an unreasonable deal.  I would try to do better though.  I think Hays has more value as part of a package vs straight up.

Talked about him at the deadline but Brice Turang makes sense to me.  Avisail Garcia has a 10M mutual option for 2022.  Figure he walks.  Cain is declining and a FA after 2022.  Hays could make sense there.  Mancini also makes sense for them.  Those 2 to Milwaukee for Turang+ makes some sense. 

Maybe I'm missing it because I don't follow other teams prospects, but what do you see in Turang other than a top pick and he's still young?  He's got a mediocre OPS, poor SB%, and yes he's a MIF at AA.

 

I figured many would say the other way around on Mondesi vs. Marte.  O's say no on Mondesi, yes to Marte.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Maybe I'm missing it because I don't follow other teams prospects, but what do you see in Turang other than a top pick and he's still young?  He's got a mediocre OPS, poor SB%, and yes he's a MIF at AA.

 

I figured many would say the other way around on Mondesi vs. Marte.  O's say no on Mondesi, yes to Marte.

Turang is a top 100 guy.  Keep in mind he was just 21 playing in AA and AAA this year, so he was young for the leagues.

Good glove reputation and solid offensive upside.  

[Roll Tide]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

For some reason, Kevin Goldstein got a lot of questions about the O’s today (forgive the formatting):

Cakes&Kakes: I know comps are lazy, but I’m going to ask anyways. Is Ryan Mountcastle the second coming of Mark Trumbo?

:01

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t hate this at all, which is about the strongest compliment I can give a comp.   Marc: If the Orioles make the highest bid on a SP, how likely is he to decline due to losing/strength of schedule/small park factors? Or do most FAs just care about the highest bid?     Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, it’s tough to go from 0 to 60 that quick. Big FAs want to win or think that they can. First step for BAL would be signing a good FA as opposed to an elite one.   Angelus Novus: How sold are you on Hays as maybe a second division regular? Any upside there?   Kevin Goldstein: Yes; not really.   Marc: Why’d the Britton trade fall through for Houston?   Kevin Goldstein: LONG STORY. Ugh. You just ruined my day, Marc!   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-10-4-2021/

Hopefully Mountcastle hits for way more long ball power than Nick. Nick hit 23 in his 2nd season and never eclipsed that. In fact, he never got close to 20 again after hitting 18 in his 4th season.