The Biggest Fallacy: We Need a 1B or DH

[Hank Scorpio]

No, more like "over priced talent."

Put it this way, I am not nearly as enamored with Texeira as a player as what seems to be the norm here on the OH. Same with Nick Markakis. I just don't see it. No way either of these two are worth huge long term contracts.

Then your eyes must be closed.

[Old#5fan]

Then your eyes must be closed.

I view Markakis as not enough of a power hitter to command an all-star outfielder salary. He cannot even hold down the third spot in the lineup. Texiera, is good and could hold down the third or even fourth spot, but no way I would pay him AROD type money. He's not that good. If he was all of that he should have almost singlehandedly propelled the Angels to the WS. Obviously, he wasn't that much of a factor.

[Fan4Life]

I view Markakis as not enough of a power hitter to command an all-star outfielder salary. Texiera, is good but no way I would pay him AROD type money. He's not that good. If he was all of that he should have almost singlehandedly propelled the Angels to the WS. Obviously, he wasn't that much of a factor.

I agree with your assessment in general as long as you don't care where you end up in the standings each year. If you care, then there is a cost associated with it whether we agree with that cost or not.

[Lucky Jim]

I view Markakis as not enough of a power hitter to command an all-star outfielder salary. Texiera, is good but no way I would pay him AROD type money. He's not that good. If he was all of that he should have almost singlehandedly propelled the Angels to the WS. Obviously, he wasn't that much of a factor.

Not to get nit-picky, but how many World Series has A-Rod single-handedly propeled his team to?

[Old#5fan]

I agree with your assessment in general as long as you don't care where you end up in the standings each year. If you care, then there is a cost associated with it whether we agree with that cost or not.

I do care which is why I want the focus to be on the horrendous, terrible, lousy, aweful starting pitching that is the worst I have seen since I have been watching the Orioles starting with my first game in 1963.

[Old#5fan]

Not to get nit-picky, but how many World Series has A-Rod single-handedly propeled his team to?

Well, he has had a few MVP seasons. How many has Texeira had?

[bluedog]

How about Glen Davis? Was there a lesson learned in that? I can only imagine what would happen on this board if the Orioles vastly overpaid and signed Texeira and something happend to him and he physically was done like Davis and Belle. It would not be pretty.

So in effect you suggest we become the Royals or Pirates and never offer anyone a significant contract ever again in the fear that they may get hurt? Do you advocate that the O's never again offer a contract sufficient to sign or retain Hall of Fame caliber talent? Because these are the types of contracts that are required to do that - big money over a long term.

Why do you insist on only using the most devastatingly horrible career ending injuries as examples instead of also factoring in players like Albert Pujols, ARod and Manny Rodriguez - all of whom signed massive contracts for their clubs in recent years and have performed primarily injury free, at or above expectations? It seems that your using Davis and Belle to stack the deck so that your opinion has seeming merit, when in fact those types of career ending injuries right on the heals of big contracts are very much the exception, not the rule.

The best way to never achieve anything (in life as in pro sports) is to give in to fear. Fear of failure, fear of losing money, fear of injury, fear of rejection. The teams and organization that give into fear are the ones that never achieve anything of lasting note.

I certainly hope the O's don't pass up on the chance to sign a hall of fame caliber player like Teixeira because of fear.

[Maverick2143]

Oh, so once players like Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, and AROD hit 30 just stick a fork in them? :rolleyestf: I think you need to revisit history.

Think of a typical players production as a bell curve with it rising in his early 20's, reaching its highest point in their late twenty's, plateauing at that level for several years and then starting to decline in their low to mid 30's. Now, every player is different and the rate of decline can vary greatly. Also just because a player is in decline that doesn't mean that he is no longer productive, it just means he isn't producing at peak. (Ex. If Huff stays with the O's and in 2010 he hits 20 HR 75 RBI with .280 BA he would have declined from 2008, but he would still be producing at an acceptable level.)

The difference between normal players (ala Huff, Millar) and HOF caliber players (ARod,) is that the HOF players reach their peak levels earlier and are able to maintain them later than typical players and generally their decline is very gradual.

Every player is different and there are always going to be exceptions, but as a general rule of thumb players like Huff have much higher chance of regressing from age 32-35 than they do of maintaining or improving. The key is to determine to what degree and speed a player is going to regress. Is he going to decline like Julio France or like Jim Lemon?

[Old#5fan]

Think of a typical players production as a bell curve with it rising in his early 20's, reaching its highest point in their late twenty's, plateauing at that level for several years and then starting to decline in their low to mid 30's. Now, every player is different and the rate of decline can vary greatly. Also just because a player is in decline that doesn't mean that he is no longer productive, it just means he isn't producing at peak. (Ex. If Huff stays with the O's and in 2010 he hits 20 HR 75 RBI with .280 BA he would have declined from 2008, but he would still be producing at an acceptable level.)

The difference between normal players (ala Huff, Millar) and HOF caliber players (ARod,) is that the HOF players reach their peak levels earlier and are able to maintain them later than typical players and generally their decline is very gradual.

Every player is different and there are always going to be exceptions, but as a general rule of thumb players like Huff have much higher chance of regressing from age 32-35 than they do of maintaining or improving. The key is to determine to what degree and speed a player is going to regress. Is he going to decline like Julio France or like Jim Lemon?

I understand what you posted but I don't agree with "general rule of thumb" thinking. I personally think Huff will do better than 20 homers and 75 rbi next season.

[Maverick2143]

I understand what you posted but I don't agree with "general rule of thumb" thinking. I personally think Huff will do better than 20 homers and 75 rbi next season.

That wooshing sound is my point going right over your head.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, he has had a few MVP seasons. How many has Texeira had?

How is that relevant to your original point?

[Old#5fan]

So in effect you suggest we become the Royals or Pirates and never offer anyone a significant contract ever again in the fear that they may get hurt? Do you advocate that the O's never again offer a contract sufficient to sign or retain Hall of Fame caliber talent? Because these are the types of contracts that are required to do that - big money over a long term.

Why do you insist on only using the most devastatingly horrible career ending injuries as examples instead of also factoring in players like Albert Pujols, ARod and Manny Rodriguez - all of whom signed massive contracts for their clubs in recent years and have performed primarily injury free, at or above expectations? It seems that your using Davis and Belle to stack the deck so that your opinion has seeming merit, when in fact those types of career ending injuries right on the heals of big contracts are very much the exception, not the rule.

The best way to never achieve anything (in life as in pro sports) is to give in to fear. Fear of failure, fear of losing money, fear of injury, fear of rejection. The teams and organization that give into fear are the ones that never achieve anything of lasting note.

I certainly hope the O's don't pass up on the chance to sign a hall of fame caliber player like Teixeira because of fear.

Two things. One, I don't view Texiera as a HOF caliber player, although he might be. Two, I could see spending that kind of money on him if I were the Angels, Yankees, or Boston as they are already in playoff contention. The Orioles however, need pitching so badly that spending their wad on a firstbaseman is simply an unwise use of resources. I think they should hold onto their wad and try to purchase an ace pitcher each of the next two or three seasons or several number two starters. I simply don't see anything coming up from the minors any better than what they usually trot out there in the Cabrera's, Olsons, and Liz's variety which are inferior quality.

[Fan4Life]

I do care which is why I want the focus to be on the horrendous, terrible, lousy, aweful starting pitching that is the worst I have seen since I have been watching the Orioles starting with my first game in 1963.

I agree completely. I believe we need 3 new starting pitchers next season not from our organization. Olson/Penn/Liz/insert name should all be competing for one slot, #5. That being said, we have a hole at 1b that needs to be filled. One of the best players at that position is available now, I think we should get him. Now, if getting him is at the expense of adding pitching, then I may rethink it somewhat. But here is no reason we can't, and shouldn't, do both.

[Old#5fan]

How is that relevant to your original point?

The point being when you put up an MVP season you are doing the utmost to propel your team to a WS. Albeit in AROD's case his regular seasons fit that mold but his post seasons are abysmal, so I see where you are coming from. Even so, AROD is one of the few players who has earned his money in the regular season, but realistically should get a pay cut for the post season!:laughlol:

[Lucky Jim]

Two things. One, I don't view Texiera as a HOF caliber player, although he might be. Two, I could see spending that kind of money on him if I were the Angels, Yankees, or Boston as they are already in playoff contention. The Orioles however, need pitching so badly that spending their wad on a firstbaseman is simply an unwise use of resources. I think they should hold onto their wad and try to purchase an ace pitcher each of the next two or three seasons or several number two starters. I simply don't see anything coming up from the minors any better than what they usually trot out there in the Cabrera's, Olsons, and Liz's variety which are inferior quality.

The first point is excellent: leverage is extremely important in determining how and when to spend on big contracts.

Then you lose it with the second point. You completely negate the logical point in the first part by adopting the very course of action you claim isn't prudent to the pitching context.

If you don't see our minors as being better than what it's been, then you're not paying attention. And if you're not paying attention, just admit it and move on. Quit pretending to be informed.