Kiley McDaniel’s FA contract predictions

[OriolesMagic83]

27 minutes ago, interloper said:

I expected more for E-Rod honestly, so I was wrong about that one. He ends up getting almost exactly what MLBTR predicted, but a bit more. I still think as the offseason goes along and teams get desperate for pitching, this is going to end up looking like kind of a bargain.

I am always surprised by how much more starting pitchers get than I think they will get.  Years of mediocrity followed by one great year can pay off tremendously.  I'm thinking of Gausman this year, but there are many examples. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I do.  I love opt outs.  
 

That being said, I would rather see it after 3 years than 2 for this deal but still, no issues at all there.

For who? the team?

They are unambiguously a benefit to the player.

[BohKnowsBmore]

The $77M over 5 years sounds just about right in line with the Fangraphs projections:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/

Quote

 

Type	Years	AAV	Total
Ben Clemens	4	$20.0 M	$80.0 M
Median Crowdsource	4	$18.0 M	$72.0 M

 

The AAV is a little lower (considering the 5th year), but I think it's roughly equivalent when you consider the potential fair value of the opt-out provision.

[Frobby]

Have we heard how the $77 mm is structured?   In these deals with opt outs, it matters a lot whether the contract is frontloaded, backloaded, or evenly spread out.   

Edit: “Rodríguez is guaranteed $28MM over the first two seasons of his contract, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (Twitter link). He can earn an additional $2MM over the first two years in incentives based on innings totals. Rodríguez’s deal will have $49MM in remaining guarantees from 2023-25, at which point he’ll have to decide whether to trigger his opt-out provision.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/tigers-nearing-deal-with-eduardo-rodriguez.html

So, mildly backloaded.   Makes it a little tougher for EdRod to back out, and if he does, Detroit got two prime years pretty cheaply.  

[Just Regular]

i guess now the book is closed on the Andrew Miller trade.

Seems like the guaranteed 5th year is as good a plum as the opt-out.   He is an innings stud, but career over 1.3 baserunners per inning.

They feel a mini-generation apart as Orioles, but he and John Means were both born in April 1993.

 

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

For who? the team?

They are unambiguously a benefit to the player.

I know..but more often than not, I prefer to not have the FA beyond 3 of 4 years.  So, let someone else deal with those declining, expensive  years.

[BohKnowsBmore]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know..but more often than not, I prefer to not have the FA beyond 3 of 4 years.  So, let someone else deal with those declining, expensive  years.

Right, but you typically only get someone else to deal with those years if they were outperforming the original deal. If they're just holding serve or underperforming, you're more likely to be holding the bag on them. Nature of it being an option for the player.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Right, but you typically only get someone else to deal with those years if they were outperforming the original deal. If they're just holding serve or underperforming, you're more likely to be holding the bag on them. Nature of it being an option for the player.

Yep..but it’s a risk I’m more than happy to take.  No issues with the player having the power.

The only thing for me, especially if I’m a rebuilding team, is that I would like to have the third year guaranteed, at least in this case.

But to me it signals that they are going to spend and between that and their farm system, that they feel they can contend sooner than later.

[Sports Guy]

Angels sign Syndegaard to a 1 year deal for 21M.

BJs also extended Berrios for 7/140.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Angels sign Syndegaard to a 1 year deal for 21M.

BJs also extended Berrios for 7/140.

Interesting. I wonder if they are out on Ray. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Angels sign Syndegaard to a 1 year deal for 21M.

BJs also extended Berrios for 7/140.

The Angels deal makes little sense to me.  $21 mm for a guy who basically hasn’t pitched in two years, plus they give up a draft pick to have Syndergaard for one season.   Even if he’s pretty good, that seems shortsighted to me.    

I like the Berrios deal pretty well.   He’s young enough (28 next season) where a 7-year commitment doesn’t seem too outrageous, and he’s been both good and durable.   The last year or two might be a stretch but they’ll get his best remaining years at a very reasonable cost.   
 

[Sports Guy]

I like the Thor deal for the Angels.  Not really any long term risk and it’s a potential huge reward.  He’s healthy and you figure he will be good if he remains that way.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting. I wonder if they are out on Ray. 

They shouldn’t be on him to begin with.  They should sign Stroman if they are going after someone like that.

[Just Regular]

36 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting. I wonder if they are out on Ray. 

I think they are.   After the Berrios trade, I figured the Jays would have to pick one or the other to keep long term, and I think they made the right choice.   I'd be surprised from here if they put a third $20M pitcher on payroll for next couple years - Vlad will be Arb3 the first year Ryu is off the ledger.

I'd be buying relief aces now if I have piles of pitching money left.

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They shouldn’t be on him to begin with.  They should sign Stroman if they are going after someone like that.

Pretty much every site I've seen had them as the favorite to sign him. What don't you like about Ray? Potential overpay for a career year?