Bedard appears to be recovering well

[Frobby]

Zduriencik said the team's trainers are encouraged by the recovery from shoulder surgery by left-handed starter Erik Bedard, who is expected to be in the rotation in 2009.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/390210_mari02.html?source=mypi

[sangar]

Good for him. I hope he has a long and successful career.

[NewMarketSean]

Now that I am officially the Mariners team analyst, allow me to weigh in!

With Bedard healthy, the M's could find themselves with a solid rotation in 2009 if things go their way.

Hernandez, Bedard and Morrow aren't a bad top 3 and that isn't even including Jarrod Washburn (who is trade bait) and Carlos Silva (who was awful last year but should improve only because he can't get any worse).

If Washburn this offseason and Bedard is traded at the deadline, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend are also possibilities for the rotation. Robert Rohrbaugh is also a guy who could fill in for the rotation down the road too.

After researching the organization, the M's and O's have a lot in common.

[Frobby]

Some quotes from Seattle's GM after he saw Bedard at the winter meetings:

Bedard flew into Las Vegas on Sunday, had lunch with new manager Don Wakamatsu and met with the man who surgically repaired his shoulder in September, Dr. Lewis Yocum, and then left Monday.

* * *

Bedard had little success in 2008 because of injuries. He went 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 15 starts. But his left shoulder, surgically repaired Sept. 26, is progressing to the point where he will start throwing this week. He expressed nothing but optimism in his talks with Zduriencik.

"He will be in our rotation," Zduriencik said Monday. "We need him to be the Erik Bedard we traded for."

The Mariners gave up five players, including outfielder Adam Jones and short reliever George Sherrill to land Bedard.

"He's not going to be traded," Zduriencik said, adding there was no chance the club would non-tender (decline to give a contract to) Bedard. The deadline is this weekend. "Trades are based on value, and after last year, he doesn't have the (same) value."

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/391270_mari09.html

[Migrant Redbird]

That link took me to an old article, dating to Dec 1st, long before Ibanez was signed by the Phillies yesterday. I did a google search and came up with an article from 2 days ago, which I assume is the one to which you were referring.

Playing catch: For Erik Bedard, it's a start

By the end of the season, Bedard was a bit paranoid – certain the Mariners didn’t want him back, that the media didn’t believe he was injured, and that fans believed the media.

Since then, he has been rehabilitating three days a week with a trainer near home, stretching.

“Right now, because of the stretching, I have more range of motion in my shoulder than I had last year,” Bedard said.

And today, with his brother Mark, Bedard will do something he hasn’t done in more than three months. He’ll play catch.

“It’ll be good just to start with four minutes,” Bedard said. “I remember when I was coming back from Tommy John surgery (2002), how weird it was to try to throw again.

“You wonder if your arm is going to hurt, if it’s going to blow up. You’re kind of like ‘Oh my God, will it hold up?’ I got through that, I’ll get through this. I’ll build up my strength and endurance and be ready for spring training.”

If that happens, Zduriencik said, the Mariners might see the Bedard they traded for.

Unfortunately, the history for recoveries from shoulder surgery isn't very good. The Cardinals hit the jackpot with Chris Carpenter, who recovered from two surgeries (the 2nd one to clear up scar tissue from the first) to win the Cy Young award 2 years later.

However, Scott Rolen went through 3 shoulder surgeries without fully regaining full motion in his non-throwing shoulder that would allow him to swing a bat freely with power.

Mark Mulder's recuperation from shoulder surgery took a year longer than expected and he still couldn't pitch effectively at the end of June last year, making 2 relief appearances and 1 start -- in which he struck out 1 hitter and walked 2 more -- before hanging it up for the season.

The Cardinals physicians examined Matt Clement last spring and pronounced him fully recovered from shoulder surgery before the Cardinals signed him. However, Clement was never able to recover his velocity in spring training and only made a few futile rehab starts in the minors before giving it up for 2008. He has now signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays and will give it at least one more shot this coming spring before retiring.

Getting figures on the success of shoulder surgery is a little more difficult than for Tommy John surgery, which is generally cited as 85-90 percent successful, with the pitcher returning to the performance level he had before the injury -- or better! I once found an article coauthored by Dr. James Andrews which said that the success rate for TJ and shoulder surgeries combined was about 50 percent, which implies that the success rate for shoulder surgeries alone might be only 10-25 percent -- depending on the relative number of shoulder surgeries in the study sample. I haven't relocated the article on the study, but I think it only had fewer than a hundred cases total.

In other words, it's far from assured that Bedard will return to pitching effectively after his recuperation. Not all shoulder surgeries are the same and I'm unfamiliar with the details off Bedard's surgery -- and not professionally competent to evaluate them anyhow -- so it's possible the outlook for Bedard is rosier than I describe.

[Frobby]

This was exploratory surgery and they found far less damage than was feared, and made a routine minor repair. Bedard has a pretty decent shot at a full recovery.

[PaulBako]

I hope Bedard has another injury filled year. That would make that trade even better for us!

I know. I'm bad!

[JGuthrie46]

haha it wouldn't be fair if he stayed unhealthy after what we've got in return for him. I hope he can put up solid numbers and get traded for prospects which Seattle seems to be doing these days.

[Frobby]

Count BP's Will Carroll as someone who is skeptcal that Bedard will return to form:

Nick (Portland): Any thoughts on the return of Erik Bedard? What are our chances of seeing a dominant Felix/Bedard combo in the next 2-3 years?

Will Carroll: Zero. Maybe Hernandez/Strasbourg.

---

Ameer (Bloomington, IN): I'm pretty shocked that you said there was a zero chance of a dominant Bedard/Hernandez combo in the next few years. You really think there's zero chance of Bedard coming back strong in the next couple years?

Will Carroll: I don't think I'm allowed to use negative numbers.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=556

[PaulBako]

Count BP's Will Carroll as someone who is skeptcal that Bedard will return to form:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=556

Why is this guy talking about Strasburg?

1. They dont have Strasburg yet.

2. The M's only have the 2nd pick in the draft, so they probably won't get Strasburg.

[MChance]

I don't typically root for former Orioles for one reason or another, but Erik's a guy that I hope does well in Seattle. Now if he eventually becomes a Yankee or a Devil Ray, I'll boo him endlessly and wish for bad things to happen to his elbow.

[cindyluvsbrady]

I don't typically root for former Orioles for one reason or another, but Erik's a guy that I hope does well in Seattle. Now if he eventually becomes a Yankee or a Devil Ray, I'll boo him endlessly and wish for bad things to happen to his elbow.

LOL:laughlol:!

I want Erikkkkkkkkkkkkkk to do well:)I miss him:(

I do understand how Mchance feels though;)

[sangar]

I hope Bedard has another injury filled year. That would make that trade even better for us!

I know. I'm bad!

I'm having trouble believing you would say something like this. You hope the man is hurt? From some of these people yes, its not like you.

[Migrant Redbird]

... You hope the man is hurt?

I'm having difficulties suppressing feelings that I'd like for Sabathia and Burnett to miss a lot of starts next year, and for the duration of their contracts. I don't wish that upon them, but I have to admit being susceptible to sentiments like that.

[allstar1579]

Now that I am officially the Mariners team analyst, allow me to weigh in!

With Bedard healthy, the M's could find themselves with a solid rotation in 2009 if things go their way.

Hernandez, Bedard and Morrow aren't a bad top 3 and that isn't even including Jarrod Washburn (who is trade bait) and Carlos Silva (who was awful last year but should improve only because he can't get any worse).

If Washburn this offseason and Bedard is traded at the deadline, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend are also possibilities for the rotation. Robert Rohrbaugh is also a guy who could fill in for the rotation down the road too.

After researching the organization, the M's and O's have a lot in common.

Now that Putz has been traded, I'd look for Morrow to get shifted to closer. They are far from getting started on the rebuild, and I'd look for sort of a firesale this season. They will take offers on anything not bolted down, and Bedard is a certainty to go if he recovers half way decent.