Trade Bait 2022

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

MLB Trade Rumors with an article hyping up Lopez as a potential trade asset.

The Orioles’ Waiver Claim All-Star (And Trade Candidate)

Quote

Beyond Lopez’s pure dominance, he’d be a multi-year fix for any team willing to pony up with a hefty offer. The right-hander has two years of club control remaining beyond the current season, and given this year’s eminently affordable $1.5MM salary, his future raises will be starting from a relatively low baseline. In other words, he ought to remain overwhelmingly affordable — especially relative to his newfound production — over the remainder of that club control.

The Orioles certainly don’t haveto trade Lopez. By the time his club control is drawing to a close, in 2024, they may well finally be back to a state of competitiveness. At the same time, reliever performance is volatile on a year-to-year basis. Just as there’s risk in selling a high-end contributor like Lopez for unproven young talent, there’s risk that Lopez will sustain an injury or simply a downturn in performance — even if that appears unlikely based on his current skill set.

 

[Brooks The Great]

I'd hang on to Lopez. His stuff has always been very good, he just needed to level it up in shorter spurts as a reliever. If we intend on competing soon, we need a reliable closer, and one that can regularly get 4 or 5 outs to close out games is valuable to a contending team.

I'd trade Dillon Tate. Ideal team to target for him: the Dodgers. They lost Daniel Hudson (who was their 8th inning man) and have a great farm system with a few blocked prospects.

Would love Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch, and I think the Dodgers would pay up for a quality setup man. 

[Orioles0615]

Will be interesting to see what Elias can actually get back since we have players to trade with value. I think the most he has gotten back for any trade has been Bradish and Varva. Normally its some low minors pitcher with a 5 era. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Orioles0615 said:

Will be interesting to see what Elias can actually get back since we have players to trade with value. I think the most he has gotten back for any trade has been Bradish and Varva. Normally its some low minors pitcher with a 5 era. 

Galvis 2021 return Tyler Burch might take that!

Lopez and Tate are almost like Mancini for me...I'd be glad for them to see them get to chase a dogpile.    I don't figure them to be year-in, year-out relief aces as I hope Bautista-Akin-Hall might be.

Anyone above Santander would be radical - Adley, Grayson and Gunnar need those guys to battle with in 2023.

Santander is the really interesting one that could go either way.    Trading him apart from the return would open a wide door for a Mancini reunion, should everyone get sentimental.   Mancini's getting the recruiting pitch from many of the best Orioles right now...he seems to be having fun.    Go get some playoff experience.

When I think about Santander, I don't really think about Cost at all...I expect the early Adley teams to afford proven major leaguers near his level.     I think more is it a Bat I want to take 550 PA next year at all.   I feel the glass is still more than Half Full, but its closer to the midpoint in a way Mullins-Hays (and say Mountcastle if you're saying them) are not.    For a while I've considered the Supporting Cast OF/1B/DH Group of Five something of a flat group in the aggregate, and Santander's the one who hasn't had a real spike year yet.    I'd hate to miss if 2020 wasn't his career year...it'd be a good deal more than I think Stowers can give in 2023, or even Cowser-Kjerstad in 2024.

[oriolediehard]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

MLBTR has article about possible trading of Jorge Lopez.

[Flash- bd]

11 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'd hang on to Lopez. His stuff has always been very good, he just needed to level it up in shorter spurts as a reliever. If we intend on competing soon, we need a reliable closer, and one that can regularly get 4 or 5 outs to close out games is valuable to a contending team.

I'd trade Dillon Tate. Ideal team to target for him: the Dodgers. They lost Daniel Hudson (who was their 8th inning man) and have a great farm system with a few blocked prospects.

Would love Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch, and I think the Dodgers would pay up for a quality setup man. 

I'd trade López for sure. For the reasons the article gives, we can get a very interesting return for him. We've seen over the years how relatively easy it is to find these very good high leverage relievers...we've got other arms like Akin that can perhaps step into that role, Vespi has come out of nowhere, Baker has a good arm even if the results aren't quite there yet (though his FIP suggests he's much better than his ERA tells us), we've got Bautista and Pérez who came out of basically nowhere and there will always be guys like this that come out of nowhere...I think Baumann can still turn into a good high leverage reliever at least, too, Kremer is a good cautionary tale for writing off these types of players. Ignacio Feliz and others in the minors look like they can turn into good relievers...there's a constant supply of good relievers (though not quite as dominant as López now). 

 

I'd probably argue, actually, that López is the player I most want to see traded this deadline, because I think we can get a significant return. Perhaps a top 50 SP prospect and a potential bullpen guy? 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

I'd trade López for sure. For the reasons the article gives, we can get a very interesting return for him. We've seen over the years how relatively easy it is to find these very good high leverage relievers...we've got other arms like Akin that can perhaps step into that role, Vespi has come out of nowhere, Baker has a good arm even if the results aren't quite there yet (though his FIP suggests he's much better than his ERA tells us), we've got Bautista and Pérez who came out of basically nowhere and there will always be guys like this that come out of nowhere...I think Baumann can still turn into a good high leverage reliever at least, too, Kremer is a good cautionary tale for writing off these types of players. Ignacio Feliz and others in the minors look like they can turn into good relievers...there's a constant supply of good relievers (though not quite as dominant as López now). 

 

I'd probably argue, actually, that López is the player I most want to see traded this deadline, because I think we can get a significant return. Perhaps a top 50 SP prospect and a potential bullpen guy? 

Would you trade DL Hall for Jorge if we needed a closer? I wouldn't and Hall isn't even top 50.

[Flash- bd]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would you trade DL Hall for Jorge if we needed a closer? I wouldn't and Hall isn't even top 50.

No, definitely not, but contenders needing closers have been known to give up that kind of package, no? Or even better, no, for closers with sub 1 ERA's? I think we could think of not a few examples there. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would you trade DL Hall for Jorge if we needed a closer? I wouldn't and Hall isn't even top 50.

This is why I don't see Lopez getting traded. I don't see any trade offers coming from other teams that value Lopez solely based on this season's performance.

Teams are going to factor in what Lopez was as a pitcher prior to this year and it's going to be reflected in any trade offer. Maybe there's a team that will give up a top prospect for Lopez and then I do think you make a deal.

 

 

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

I'd trade López for sure. For the reasons the article gives, we can get a very interesting return for him. We've seen over the years how relatively easy it is to find these very good high leverage relievers...we've got other arms like Akin that can perhaps step into that role, Vespi has come out of nowhere, Baker has a good arm even if the results aren't quite there yet (though his FIP suggests he's much better than his ERA tells us), we've got Bautista and Pérez who came out of basically nowhere and there will always be guys like this that come out of nowhere...I think Baumann can still turn into a good high leverage reliever at least, too, Kremer is a good cautionary tale for writing off these types of players. Ignacio Feliz and others in the minors look like they can turn into good relievers...there's a constant supply of good relievers (though not quite as dominant as López now). 

 

I'd probably argue, actually, that López is the player I most want to see traded this deadline, because I think we can get a significant return. Perhaps a top 50 SP prospect and a potential bullpen guy? 

I'd still keep Lopez and look to move Tate instead, even if Tate brings back much less (although I think the Dodgers would pay more than almost any other team given their need for a setup man and their abundance of blocked prospects).

If anything, I believe the best course of action is to extend Lopez to a team-friendly deal. Might give him even more value in a trade, and I think Lopez would sign an extension with the O's for a good AV given the team stuck with him despite his struggles, converted him to a reliever, and supported him during his son's medical issue.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'd still keep Lopez and look to move Tate instead, even if Tate brings back much less (although I think the Dodgers would pay more than almost any other team given their need for a setup man and their abundance of blocked prospects).

If anything, I believe the best course of action is to extend Lopez to a team-friendly deal. Might give him even more value in a trade, and I think Lopez would sign an extension with the O's for a good AV given the team stuck with him despite his struggles, converted him to a reliever, and supported him during his son's medical issue.

Jorge is a great story but there is no way I am signing him to a big extension. We have plenty of extension candidates that are higher priority than a reliever with mixed track record. 

[Orioles0615]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Galvis 2021 return Tyler Burch might take that!

Lopez and Tate are almost like Mancini for me...I'd be glad for them to see them get to chase a dogpile.    I don't figure them to be year-in, year-out relief aces as I hope Bautista-Akin-Hall might be.

Anyone above Santander would be radical - Adley, Grayson and Gunnar need those guys to battle with in 2023.

Santander is the really interesting one that could go either way.    Trading him apart from the return would open a wide door for a Mancini reunion, should everyone get sentimental.   Mancini's getting the recruiting pitch from many of the best Orioles right now...he seems to be having fun.    Go get some playoff experience.

When I think about Santander, I don't really think about Cost at all...I expect the early Adley teams to afford proven major leaguers near his level.     I think more is it a Bat I want to take 550 PA next year at all.   I feel the glass is still more than Half Full, but its closer to the midpoint in a way Mullins-Hays (and say Mountcastle if you're saying them) are not.    For a while I've considered the Supporting Cast OF/1B/DH Group of Five something of a flat group in the aggregate, and Santander's the one who hasn't had a real spike year yet.    I'd hate to miss if 2020 wasn't his career year...it'd be a good deal more than I think Stowers can give in 2023, or even Cowser-Kjerstad in 2024.

Burch is exactly the type I mentioned.  A low minors pitcher with a 5 era 

[Brooks The Great]

37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Jorge is a great story but there is no way I am signing him to a big extension. We have plenty of extension candidates that are higher priority than a reliever with mixed track record. 

I specifically said team-friendly extension. A team-friendly extension for a reliever with a half of a good season under his belt is most certainly not going to be "big".

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I specifically said team-friendly extension. A team-friendly extension for a reliever with a half of a good season under his belt is most certainly not going to be "big".

What do you have in mind? Let's use numbers instead of adjectives. Would you buy out 3 years post arb for a total of say 5 years/$45M? I think that would be team friendly but too big for me considering he is 30 next year.

[Brooks The Great]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What do you have in mind? Let's use numbers instead of adjectives. Would you buy out 3 years post arb for a total of say 5 years/$45M? I think that would be team friendly but too big for me considering he is 30 next year.

I'd do AAV of $5 million - $8 million. So if 5 years, $40 million max. I think that's reasonable for both parties.