Jud Fabian

[RZNJ]

It has been said that the Orioles were poised to take the college CF at #42 and had tentatively agreed to an overslot bonus of 3M.  When Boston picked him at #41, they offered slot and Fabian turned them down.  I don't believe Fabian is in play for the top pick BUT I have to wonder what happens if he slides to their next draft position. 

[CharmCityHokie]

I'm still shocked that Fabian didn't sign for slot at #41. He's lost his leverage now that he's a Senior, and he has such a boom-or-bust batting profile that he's going to have to stay hot all season to really get attention, especially with the depth of high level outfielders in the '22 draft class. 

I agree with those that say never draft for need, take the best player available, but Fabian at 2-1 (do we have a competitive balance pick this year? I can't remember) seems like adding to depth in the OF when we have alot of other holes (i.e. pitching)

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I'm still shocked that Fabian didn't sign for slot at #41. He's lost his leverage now that he's a Senior, and he has such a boom-or-bust batting profile that he's going to have to stay hot all season to really get attention, especially with the depth of high level outfielders in the '22 draft class. 

I agree with those that say never draft for need, take the best player available, but Fabian at 2-1 (do we have a competitive balance pick this year? I can't remember) seems like adding to depth in the OF when we have alot of other holes (i.e. pitching)

If the story is true the Orioles might have had something to do with it.

If you are told you are worth 3M by one team and another team only offers you $1,856,700 I can see how that might have an impact.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If the story is true the Orioles might have had something to do with it.

If you are told you are worth 3M by one team and another team only offers you $1,856,700 I can see how that might have an impact.

 

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If the story is true the Orioles might have had something to do with it.

If you are told you are worth 3M by one team and another team only offers you $1,856,700 I can see how that might have an impact.

Why offer him overslot unless he had a number in mind to keep him from going back to school?  Seems odd that the O's would start at that number 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

Why offer him overslot unless he had a number in mind to keep him from going back to school?  Seems odd that the O's would start at that number 

I'm sure he had a number.

That doesn't mean that it might not have been easier to talk him down off of that number if he hadn't been told (allegedly) that the O's would go that high.

That's all I'm saying and all I'm going to say.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure he had a number.

That doesn't mean that it might not have been easier to talk him down off of that number if he hadn't been told (allegedly) that the O's would go that high.

That's all I'm saying and all I'm going to say.

Actually it looks like a case of the Orioles doing their homework and the Red Sox not. 

[Yossarian]

Is he on the O's board?  I have to think our needs are:  P, P, P, P, RF, P, P, 2B, P, P

[Yossarian]

Just now, Yossarian said:

Is he on the O's board?  I have to think our needs are:  P, P, P, P, RF, P, P, 2B, P, P

Add in a SS in the case of Westburg, Henderson, or an international player not working out.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

Is he on the O's board?  I have to think our needs are:  P, P, P, P, RF, P, P, 2B, P, P

O's will take the best player available, which will be OF, OF, 2B, C, OF, 3B, OF, 1B, OF, P

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

O's will take the best player available, which will be OF, OF, 2B, C, OF, 3B, OF, 1B, OF, P

They might take a guy ranked a bit lower to save money to spend elsewhere in the draft.

They might avoid taking a pitcher even if he's the BPA.

[Jammer7]

Jud enrolled at UF in Spring 2019 after graduating early from HS. He has played 1.5 years of college baseball and will not be 22 yoa until 9/27. He is a COVID junior this season, so he did not give up his leverage as someone suggested. He bet on himself, sure. We’ll see how it turns out. He also gets to play with his brother this season, which is special for Jud and his family. 

He certainly needs to make more contact, but the BB rate is not bad. There is legit CF tools and power there. I would point out that all of the UF hitters had serious issues in 2021, not just Jud. My son played with and against many of these kids, but I have not had an opportunity to ask them this year.

If it is true that the Orioles were going to draft him, based on what we know about Elias and co, they must have seen a swing alteration and/or a way to improve his swing decisions. His fly-ball/ground-ball rate was pretty high as well.

The only thing I find to be a negative, and it is a superstition, an unwritten baseball axiom, is that he is a LH thrower and RH bat. For whatever reason, that failure of that profile is a weird thing that gets brought up because so few players excel with that profile. I hope he proves that to be a silly thought.

[Just Regular]

26 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

The only thing I find to be a negative, and it is a superstition, an unwritten baseball axiom, is that he is a LH thrower and RH bat. For whatever reason, that failure of that profile is a weird thing that gets brought up because so few players excel with that profile. I hope he proves that to be a silly thought.

I know that's a rare combo but had never heard it superstition-bad.   I know there have only been a handful* in baseball history, but I always kind of imagined it good in case you get a 1-in-a-handful chance at Rickey Henderson.

*Pitchers pretending to "bat" don't count towards handful calculation.

[Jammer7]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I know that's a rare combo but had never heard it superstition-bad.   I know there have only been a handful* in baseball history, but I always kind of imagined it good in case you get a 1-in-a-handful chance at Rickey Henderson.

*Pitchers pretending to "bat" don't count towards handful calculation.

The only reason I brought this up was I heard and read this on his from some lesser outlets. I find it anecdotal, at best. It was something I heard old school baseball guys talk about years ago. Rickey is the first one I bring up, but it is odd that there isn't many. Joey Rickard was one Oriole who came to mind.

[bobmc]

10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I know that's a rare combo but had never heard it superstition-bad.   I know there have only been a handful* in baseball history, but I always kind of imagined it good in case you get a 1-in-a-handful chance at Rickey Henderson.

*Pitchers pretending to "bat" don't count towards handful calculation.

Joey Rickard jumps out at me but I would guess "failure" in his case right?

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Joey Rickard jumps out at me but I would guess "failure" in his case right?

He has a few years on an MLB roster, so for me, Joey is not a failure for what was spent/invested on him. If we spent a high round pick on him, or something like that, then yeah, I guess.