What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Trey Mancini?

[Frobby]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

It would be cool to come up with the average Hangout predicted OPS and compare it to the predicted OPS by the experts.

I plan to do this.   I already posted a thread showing projections from various third party sources, and when these polls close on Feb. 28, I’m going to calculate a weighted average “consensus” OH projection for each player and add it to the spreadsheet.   I’m sure the OH projections will be a bit higher.    

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

Eh.  In this thread the vase majority have shared the same projection you did.

Nobody is going to predict somebody having a terrible year, though that will surely happen.

I didn’t say I’m not guilty of this. I’m saying we are all overestimating what the team will be offensively.

[wildcard]

I'm optimistic about Mullins, Mountcastle, Mancini, Adley and Stowers.  I think  Hays and Santander will be hurt part of the season and their OPS depends on how much they have to play hurt.   

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t say I’m not guilty of this. I’m saying we are all overestimating what the team will be offensively.

Fair enough.

You know what I do?  I always take about 10% off what I "feel."  My heart has long shown itself to be overly optimistic in regards to the O's and their players.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Fair enough.

You know what I do?  I always take about 10% off what I "feel."  My heart has long shown itself to be overly optimistic in regards to the O's and their players.

If this team has a combined OPS of even 730, that would have been in the top 13 or so last year and a 25 point improvement. 
 

It could happen.  But I think it’s more likely they are closer to 720 as a team, which would still be around league average (at least based off of last years numbers).

But the numbers projected here for these hitters will have us way over that.  I mean, I get that this isn’t counting the bottom feeders on the roster but they don’t account for as many at bats unless there are a lot of injuries.  
 

Only 5 players had an OPs over 750 last year, 1 of which was Urias who had less than 300 at bats.  Of the other 4, only Mullins was over 800, with Mountcastle just missing.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

If this team has a combined OPS of even 730, that would have been in the top 13 or so last year and a 25 point improvement. 
 

It could happen.  But I think it’s more likely they are closer to 720 as a team, which would still be around league average (at least based off of last years numbers).

But the numbers projected here for these hitters will have us way over that.  I mean, I get that this isn’t counting the bottom feeders on the roster but they don’t account for as many at bats unless there are a lot of injuries.  
 

Only 5 players had an OPs over 750 last year, 1 of which was Urias who had less than 300 at bats.  Of the other 4, only Mullins was over 800, with Mountcastle just missing.

As frobby said earlier, there will be hundreds of abs to guys not projected to get them.  In addition to the "bottom feeders" like Odor, Guitierrez, McKenna who will get 1000+.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If this team has a combined OPS of even 730, that would have been in the top 13 or so last year and a 25 point improvement. 
 

It could happen.  But I think it’s more likely they are closer to 720 as a team, which would still be around league average (at least based off of last years numbers).

But the numbers projected here for these hitters will have us way over that.  I mean, I get that this isn’t counting the bottom feeders on the roster but they don’t account for as many at bats unless there are a lot of injuries.  
 

Only 5 players had an OPs over 750 last year, 1 of which was Urias who had less than 300 at bats.  Of the other 4, only Mullins was over 800, with Mountcastle just missing.

A developing team should improve year over year.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

A developing team should improve year over year.

We aren’t really developing yet.  

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We aren’t really developing yet.  

The arrival of two top 10 global prospects this year suggests otherwise.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The arrival of two top 10 global prospects this year suggests otherwise.

Is Grayson batting?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Is Grayson batting?

If we're narrowly speaking about offense, then no.

Ok, then I'd say the arrival of a global top 2 prospects suggests the development starts now.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If this team has a combined OPS of even 730, that would have been in the top 13 or so last year and a 25 point improvement. 
 

It could happen.  But I think it’s more likely they are closer to 720 as a team, which would still be around league average (at least based off of last years numbers).

The various third party projections I’ve run range between .721 and .757.   Mostly towards the low/middle part of that range, with Clay Davenport being the high outlier.   All of those are using my assumptions about how the PA get allocated, which of course could turn out completely wrong.   
https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/43930-the-2022-ops-projections-thread/#comment-2733307

 

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Pickles said:

If we're narrowly speaking about offense, then no.

Ok, then I'd say the arrival of a global top 2 prospects suggests the development starts now.

Well considering we were talking about team OpS, I think it’s fair to say we are talking about offense.  

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well considering we were talking about team OpS, I think it’s fair to say we are talking about offense.  

Fair enough.

But it's not just Adley.  It's the continuing development of guys like Hays and Mountcastle.

This is a developing team, offensively and in all other ways.  And if it isn't, then your complaints will start to have a lot more sway with  me.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Fair enough.

But it's not just Adley.  It's the continuing development of guys like Hays and Mountcastle.

This is a developing team, offensively and in all other ways.  And if it isn't, then your complaints will start to have a lot more sway with  me.

I don’t think it’s a developing team yet…They still have way too many players that shouldn’t be getting significant at bats.  I think they are a season away from being a developing team.  If guys like Henderson and Westburg move fast this year and Stowers is also up, that changes but I don’t think they are there yet.