What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, hutchead said:

It's not a misrepresentation at all. That's simply your comeback every time you lose an argument with anyone on here.

Lol..ok.

I have not advocated anything remotely like what the Os did in the 2000s.

In fact, since you know my argument so well..how about you tell me specifically what I have said that is like what we did in the 2000s?  
 

where have I said to not have a good farm system?  To sign mediocre players to long term middling deals? To give relievers 3-4 year deals that aren’t worth it?  To keep players that are decent but have no long term viability with the club or being part of a contender here?  Where I have said to ignore the intl market?  
 

Show me all of that stuff because that’s what the team did in the 2000s.  So when you show me where I have said that, then you will have a leg to stand on.

[Justinlstn]

It's hard to lump 1998 all the way to 2011. That's last year of Pat Gillick, one Frank Wren, Syd Thrift and his confederate money, Flanagan and co, then Andy McPhail. 14 losing seasons yes, but the later part of those years we had an actual direction that we didn't have before. 

[hutchead]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So those three players weren't on the 2012 team?

Those were all players we drafted. That's not what I was talking about. I was talking about the countless times Sports Guy has said over the past three years that we should sign free agent x or free agent y because that wouldn't hurt the rebuild and it would make the team more presentable and give us 15 more wins a season. Yes, they could have signed those types of players and got those additional wins but in the end it would have cost us some of these high draft picks which is exactly what our approach was during the 14 losing seasons. All I'm saying is let's see if Elias' different approach will work. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't but it's at least worth trying since the other way didn't work. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, hutchead said:

Those were all players we drafted. That's not what I was talking about. I was talking about the countless times Sports Guy has said over the past three years that we should sign free agent x or free agent y because that wouldn't hurt the rebuild and it would make the team more presentable and give us 15 more wins a season. Yes, they could have signed those types of players and got those additional wins but in the end it would have cost us some of these high draft picks which is exactly what our approach was during the 14 losing seasons. All I'm saying is let's see if Elias' different approach will work. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't but it's at least worth trying since the other way didn't work. 

Those seasons you are talking about led to those draft picks.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, hutchead said:

Those were all players we drafted. That's not what I was talking about. I was talking about the countless times Sports Guy has said over the past three years that we should sign free agent x or free agent y because that wouldn't hurt the rebuild and it would make the team more presentable and give us 15 more wins a season. Yes, they could have signed those types of players and got those additional wins but in the end it would have cost us some of these high draft picks which is exactly what our approach was during the 14 losing seasons. All I'm saying is let's see if Elias' different approach will work. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't but it's at least worth trying since the other way didn't work. 

First of all, I wasn’t on this board 3 years ago.  Secondly, 3 years ago I wasn’t asking for FAs.  I was fine with tanking then.  Even heading into last year I wasn’t as much for free agents, especially on any kind of long term deals. 

Again, zero similarities to the 2000s.  You are just wrong.

[hutchead]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Those seasons you are talking about led to those draft picks.

Well, yes, and that's proving my point. Those three picks were 7th, 5th, and 3rd overall so those three picks were the results of teams that were bad enough to draft players that could move the needle. But that was rare during that time frame. It only happened three times in 14 years. Name some other picks from the middle of the rounds that moved the needle from the other 11 years. That's where we would be drafting now if we went with Sports Guy's approach of signing free agents that merely got us 15 more wins a season but no post season play instead of drafting the AR's and Kjerstad's and Cowser's of the world. 

[hutchead]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I wasn’t on this board 3 years ago.  Secondly, 3 years ago I wasn’t asking for FAs.  I was fine with tanking then.  Even heading into last year I wasn’t as much for free agents, especially on any kind of long term deals. 

Again, zero similarities to the 2000s.  You are just wrong.

Okay, so one or two years - whatever it is. It just seems like three years because you hijack every thread here with the same old talk. No, not everything is identical to that time frame but the most important part is the same - and that's your absurd insistence that we sign free agents that give us 15 more wins a season just so we're more "presentable." I could care less if we're more presentable if we still aren't a .500 team. Especially if it costs us the draft picks we need to finally get out of this conundrum. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, hutchead said:

Well, yes, and that's proving my point. Those three picks were 7th, 5th, and 3rd overall so those three picks were the results of teams that were bad enough to draft players that could move the needle. But that was rare during that time frame. It only happened three times in 14 years. Name some other picks from the middle of the rounds that moved the needle from the other 11 years. That's where we would be drafting now if we went with Sports Guy's approach of signing free agents that merely got us 15 more wins a season but no post season play instead of drafting the AR's and Kjerstad's and Cowser's of the world. 

So what you said earlier wasn't your point?

Then why did you say it so emphatically?

As to your point, Matusz and Loewen were #4 picks, as were Bundy and Gausman.  Hobgood was an underslot pick at #5 so they could sign a couple overslots late...

They got underwhelming results from plenty of top 5 picks during this same general time period.

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, hutchead said:

Okay, so one or two years - whatever it is. It just seems like three years because you hijack every thread here with the same old talk. No, not everything is identical to that time frame but the most important part is the same - and that's your absurd insistence that we sign free agents that give us 15 more wins a season just so we're more "presentable." I could care less if we're more presentable if we still aren't a .500 team. Especially if it costs us the draft picks we need to finally get out of this conundrum. 

Yea but we would be signing guys while also having an elite farm system and the continuing building of that system.  We are signing guys who don’t hurt us long term and don’t block any long term plans.

In the 2000s, the Os signed mediocre guys to big contracts and did so with no intl program, no farm system and no semblance of a long term plan.  There was zero forward thinking.  It was band aid after band aid while not going to the heart of the issue.

I still want to deal Mancini and Mullins with eyes on the long term while also getting very good players to help now.

So no, it’s nothing similar at all.  You aren’t providing any context to any of the situations.

Oh and btw, I’m talking about doing this now. Not 3 years ago and not 2 years ago.  That’s another misrepresentation of what I’m saying.  Right now..as in when we are on the cusp of bringing up our best prospects and have a very good farm system and the ability to add more long term talent.  As in when we have zero long term payroll commitments.  As in when we are about to get the first pick in the draft and should bring in more talent.

This idea and plan is zero like what happened in the 2000s. 

[hutchead]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So what you said earlier wasn't your point?

Then why did you say it so emphatically?

As to your point, Matusz and Loewen were #4 picks, as were Bundy and Gausman.  Hobgood was an underslot pick at #5 so they could sign a couple overslots late...

They got underwhelming results from plenty of top 5 picks during this same general time period.

 

You can play word games all you want. My point couldn't be any simpler. I disagree with signing free agents that aren't going to be with the team long term, just so we're more presentable and win 15 more games a year. I'd rather lose those 15 games and get the higher draft picks just to see if that approach works better than the old way. And apparently Mike Elias agrees with this approach because that's what he's doing. So all I'm saying is let's give him that chance and if it doesn't work then I'll be on the bandwagon to run him out of town the same as you and try something different. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, hutchead said:

You can play word games all you want. My point couldn't be any simpler. I disagree with signing free agents that aren't going to be with the team long term, just so we're more presentable and win 15 more games a year. I'd rather lose those 15 games and get the higher draft picks just to see if that approach works better than the old way. And apparently Mike Elias agrees with this approach because that's what he's doing. So all I'm saying is let's give him that chance and if it doesn't work then I'll be on the bandwagon to run him out of town the same as you and try something different. 

Ok first of all, stop moving the goal posts.  You started this by trying to frame my point and plan as the same as the 2000s.  I’m not playing word games, Im explaining to you why you are completely wrong.

If you feel it’s the same, that is on you and shows me that you don’t understand the differences between now and then.  And just because you disagree with me doesn’t mean it’s the same as the 2000s.
 

Now, you are moving onto a totally different conversation..one that has zero to do with how you originally started this.  If you would rather lose intentionally for a higher pick, still..4 years later, that’s on you.  Just because you want that doesn’t mean I do and it certainly doesn’t mean that 4 years into this I’m trying to do something that is the same as the 2000s.  It just means I’m ready to take the next step because we are ready to do so but that next step doesn’t mean blowing up what they have done.  It means augmenting what we have and trying to actually be competitive.

 

[Barnaby Graves]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well if I engaged in normal talk, that'd make me like everyone else.  I'm sorry I don't treat sports message board warfare like it's a real job.  I know this is serious business for you.

Sure we're crazy for supporting this franchise.  But you could stop caring as much like Drungo and me.  It's pretty nice.

I've become a complete fairweather fan and I'm not ashamed of it.  I used to follow this team to the degree that I would get excited about the progress of, like, Brandon Erbe or something.

Elias' plan to contend should be to go 29-9 in 1-run games and 16-2 in extra inning games.  That was a neat trick for the 2012 team.  I think every single fringe player found a way to win at least one game by themselves in miraculous fashion, Taylor Teagarden won at least two, and the bullpen had a collective career year.  Duquette could hardly miss on his signings and there was always a 26th man coming up to deliver something big.  And he wasn't afraid to deploy Machado at age 19 if he thought it could help the team, or make constructive moves like Guthrie for Hammel/Lindstrom pre-season and then Lindstrom for Saunders in August.  There was a core there, of course, but he made moves that largely paid off.

Elias' rebuild is so grinding and deliberate that I guess the plan is to knock the door down all at once with the Orioles' minor leaguers in 2024, but I haven't seen much of Duquette's talent/luck for bringing in a few smaller pieces at a time to build to a greater whole.  For the last few years the roster could basically be described as baseball's debris, and the talent promoted from within is sometimes pretty good but mostly abject failures to launch.  Which doesn't give me a whole lot of hope you're going to see these guys get thrown into it in 2023 and 2024 and succeed, and not much hope Elias has the ability to supplement.

So yeah wake me when it starts working I guess.

[hutchead]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

  I’m not playing word games

 

I wasn't talking to you. I was talking to Can of Corn.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, hutchead said:

I wasn't talking to you. I was talking to Can of Corn.

Oh sh!t.  I’m sorry.  My mistake.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh sh!t.  I’m sorry.  My mistake.

I was playing word games either.  I was just throwing his own words back at him.

He made specific statements but evidently meant to say something else.   Me pointing that out is playing word games.  I guess I'm out of line for expecting what one says to match what one means.

 

I didn't bother to reply because how do your reply to that?