Battle for opening day become clearer (28-man roster analysis)

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/battles-for-opening-day-become-clearer/

So do you agree? 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t see Perez as a lock but would agree that the lack of options gives him a leg up.  Still, I think you could keep him as I’m not sure he will be a highly sought after arm.  Figure every team has guys like him.

[interloper]

I basically agree. I had Bemboom as the 2nd catcher, but I think you're right that it will be Nottingham based on playing time. 

I do feel that Paul Fry is about as much of a lock as Perez - that's probably my biggest difference. He's looked pretty much like Good Paul Fry so far this spring. Leash might be short though. 

[interloper]

I am eager to see what they do with Odor. Back in the fun times when we thought we'd maybe sign Correa, I was starting to come around to a plus-defensive veteran middle infield with Correa and Odor. That made some sense to me. But now it's like, what is the point exactly? Is it just the fact that he bats lefty? Is it to help protect the pitching since he plays good D at 2B? Don't we want to see as much of Urias and Mateo as possible? Maybe he was insurance in case Urias or Mateo got injured or fell on their faces. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Pretty good read on things. We’ll need to drop two players off the 40 right away. And then more for Rutschman, Rodriguez, Stowers, and others when they’re ready. So my curiosity is the pecking order for players to be dropped. I think it’s more complicated than just “I’ve got 8 guys I’d drop…no problem” because you still have to field a team and maintain usable depth. We’re certainly not yet in a roster crunch where we’re going to shed players that we come to regret, but I do think that we’re nearing a place where guys like Vespi/Neustrom have a higher hurdle to clear before the team commits a spot for them, compared to prior seasons. 

[Aristotelian]

I thought Odor was being brought in as a possible 3B. Has he played there at all this spring and how confident are we in Kelvin to call him a lock?

If Kelvin is everyday 3B then where does Odor go? I do not want him to take a single AB from Urias. That would leave him platooning at SS pushing Mateo to the bench most days. That doesn't sound good either.

I have to think Baker is a lock with his resume and how he has pitched.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I thought Odor was being brought in as a possible 3B. Has he played there at all this spring and how confident are we in Kelvin to call him a lock?

If Kelvin is everyday 3B then where does Odor go? I do not want him to take a single AB from Urias. That would leave him platooning at SS pushing Mateo to the bench most days. That doesn't sound good either.

I have to think Baker is a lock with his resume and how he has pitched.

Odor immediately said he was "uncomfortable" playing 3B and he has not played there at all this spring to my knowledge. 

[now]

Tony this is no knock on you but your take on Odor is revealing... basically that the guy can't hit but the O's like his left-handed bat. This kind of rationale is common but to me is nonsensical. On par with a crappy pitcher being somehow defended as an "innings eater," LOL.

[wildcard]

Tony, I am trying to figure out who are the 10 you think will go.  From what you said I see:

1: Ellis,  2: Lakins, 3:Watkins, 4: Bemboom,  5:Taylor,  6: Nevin, 7: McKenna

Who are the other 3?

I know Mateo can play the outfield.  But has he played it this spring?  If he did  I missed  it.

My Opinion:  Agree that McKenna has not hit but with the bigger LF I think he wins a spot for defense.

I have seen zip from Odor. I hope he is DFA'd before opening day.

 

[interloper]

22 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Pretty good read on things. We’ll need to drop two players off the 40 right away. And then more for Rutschman, Rodriguez, Stowers, and others when they’re ready. So my curiosity is the pecking order for players to be dropped. I think it’s more complicated than just “I’ve got 8 guys I’d drop…no problem” because you still have to field a team and maintain usable depth. We’re certainly not yet in a roster crunch where we’re going to shed players that we come to regret, but I do think that we’re nearing a place where guys like Vespi/Neustrom have a higher hurdle to clear before the team commits a spot for them, compared to prior seasons. 

The 40-man is getting tough finally.

The most at-risk guys to me, in whatever order, are Mattson, Gillaspie, Odor, and Jones. It seems to me that 2 of these guys will go to get Nottingham and Owings on the roster.

Adley is an easy one because you just DFA Nottingham.

After that? It's really tough. You're getting into guys like Krehbiel, Perez, and Baker - all promising high-velo arms. Or Stewart. Bannon. But with 5 guys more DFA-able than this group, they are relatively safe for now I think. 

The O's should try to make some trades to clear space: Sulser, Fry, Scott, and Santander would be at the top of my list. 

[seak05]

This is partially my own bias, but I don't get Stewart on the roster. Having a player on the bench who can't play defense seems wasteful, he can barely hit, and he should be nowhere near that new left field at Camden. They also haven't played Mateo or Owings in the OF yet this spring. I'm also sort of over Akin.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Pretty good read on things. We’ll need to drop two players off the 40 right away. And then more for Rutschman, Rodriguez, Stowers, and others when they’re ready. So my curiosity is the pecking order for players to be dropped. I think it’s more complicated than just “I’ve got 8 guys I’d drop…no problem” because you still have to field a team and maintain usable depth. We’re certainly not yet in a roster crunch where we’re going to shed players that we come to regret, but I do think that we’re nearing a place where guys like Vespi/Neustrom have a higher hurdle to clear before the team commits a spot for them, compared to prior seasons. 

My drop list is:  1. Odor,  2 Bannon.    The 2nd catcher goes when Adley is ready.  It will be nearly a month before we see  Grayson or Bradish and probably 2 months for Stowers are promoted.  So players preformance will determine who goes for them.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I thought Odor was being brought in as a possible 3B. Has he played there at all this spring and how confident are we in Kelvin to call him a lock?

If Kelvin is everyday 3B then where does Odor go? I do not want him to take a single AB from Urias. That would leave him platooning at SS pushing Mateo to the bench most days. That doesn't sound good either.

I have to think Baker is a lock with his resume and how he has pitched.

And Owings has looked better than Odor and Owings plays 2B/SS/3B.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

And Owings has looked better than Odor and Owings plays 2B/SS/3B.

Yeah he's such a more useful player than Odor, it's not even close IMO. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

The 40-man is getting tough finally.

The most at-risk guys to me, in whatever order, are Mattson, Gillaspie, Odor, and Jones.

Adley is an easy one because you just DFA Nottingham.

After that? It's really tough. You're getting into guys like Krehbiel, Perez, and Baker - all promising high-velo arms. Or Stewart. 

The O's should try to make some trades to clear space: Sulser, Fry, Scott, and Santander would be at the top of my list. 

JMO but I think Mattson is injured as begins on the 10 day IL.   I don't see Gillaspie or Jones being DFA'd.

No need for trades IMO.  DFA'd Odor and Bannon.  There are plenty of guys with options to get to 28.