Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

You should stop. We are done. Your flexing online is asinine. Harassment is a bad thing, and sorta against the rules. Have some respect for your fellow posters here. And yourself. 

Flexing?  If you consider asking you to backup something you said, then I'm guilty.  I respect the truth. You should too.

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Flexing?  If you consider asking you to backup something you said, then I'm guilty.  I respect the truth. You should too.

Ok

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'm losing readers!!!!

I read your posts!  I find the back and forth arguments with Can o Corn, Sports Guy and others entertaining.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I read your posts!  I find the back and forth arguments with Can o Corn, Sports Guy and others entertaining.

I find the substantive arguments informative and entertaining.   

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I read your posts!  I find the back and forth arguments with Can o Corn, Sports Guy and others entertaining.

I feel like I should say thanks but maybe not.

[OriolesMagic83]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I feel like I should say thanks but maybe not.

Can't even compliment someone.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Can't even compliment someone.

Oh boy!  Thank you and you're welcome.

[Justinlstn]

Was planning on reading through this thread but based on the past 2 pages I think I'll skip this one.

[TheWall]

Sounds like Termarr will make a solid 2B. Glad we're all in agreement. Can't wait to see the thread when we take him and save $300k. 

[Brooks The Great]

5 hours ago, jabba72 said:

To me good competition tends to mean high velocity, maybe I could have phrased it better. A 60 hit tool for a guy thats 5-9 or 5-8? I feel like we made this pick before. In 2001. Mike Fontenot. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fontemi01.shtml

Sounds like Nick Madrigal also. And Austin Martin. Pass.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Flexing?  If you consider asking you to backup something you said, then I'm guilty.  I respect the truth. You should too.

Ha, you give me a hard time too but really do appreciate your insights/opinions Sir. 

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Ha, you give me a hard time too but really do appreciate your insights/opinions Sir. 

You're one of the 3 but you've earned it.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You're one of the 3 but you've earned it.

Thank you Sir.

[foxfield]

Even with a draft that has several worthy considerations at the top...there really is still no such thing as a sure thing.  I find all of the information interesting and videos of the players exciting to see.  

As to the original question, Jones or Johnson at full slot or 1.5MM under slot.  The question depends on two equations.  The first, is what is the difference in value you expect from Jones or Johnson.  For the sake of argument let's assume the projected value of Jones is 15 WAR and the expected value of Johnson is 14.5 WAR.  IF 1 WAR is worth 7MM then the extra 1.5MM to sign Jones would still provide excess value of 3.5MM for the extra .5 WAR.

BUT, the second equation is the kicker.  IF the extra 1.5MM saved by drafting Johnson gets you a better prospect, it only needs to net .5 WAR to provide excess value for going under slot.

The reason it is done is NOT to "save" money.  It's done to leverage excess value in the draft.  I simply don't know enough to determine what values are available....and of course, the risk is that your second or third or fourth picks may not still be there when you draft again....

But if, the ORIOLES value any of the top 5 or so guys at anywhere near the same.  I think one who offers an extra 1.5 or 2MM in savings would be great.  AND if they value one of those who will take less a hair better than another guy anyway...well then that is even better.

I personally like Green because I was enamored with him last year and haven't been moved off of that, but I expect to be surprised here.

[baltfan]

Listening to Keith Law's latest podcast, he had Eric Longenhagen on.  Eric pays lots of attention to batted ball data and noted that Druw Jones seems to have an issue with pulling good fastballs.  He said that he hasn't seen one instance where he has been able to do it.  This is problematic, he said, unless you know that your development people can tweak his swing to fix the problem.  Something to keep in mind going forward.