2022 10th Round Pick (#287): Wyatt Cheney. RHP McLennan CC (Tx)

[DirtyBird]

Steal of the draft. 

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Steal of the draft. 

How so?

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

To be 100% clear, I think that the organization is in significantly better shape under Elias than the previous regime and I’m not saying that I would take Rajsich over Elias’ crew. I was only saying that I would like a few more high school swings notwithstanding that college players can also be upside swings.

When you say you can’t find fault in Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, and Mayo, I can’t either, and 3/5 were high school players. The staff is good at identifying high school players! I also wonder if their hands are a bit tied because ownership won’t approve spending the 5% overage. 

With respect to Rajsich he wasn’t perfect, and you identified some of his hits. Others included Mountcastle and Hader, and college players like Mancini, Hays, and Mullins. I thought he did pretty well despite forfeited picks and the interference you identified. But again, I’m happy with Elias and his team, and wasn’t trying to say I was wish he was still running the draft.

I’m sure what @owknowssaid about college players being more likely to have a 3 year career is true. What does a three year career mean? Does it mean they produced replacement level or better production?

I’m not saying it’s wrong to look at the draft that way, just that you can look at it differently. One can make a number of arguments based on career WAR, prospect lists, etc. For example, with respect to Fangraphs current Top 100, 42 were drafted out of high school players, 28 were international signings, and 30 were drafted out of college or JUCO.

I also don’t disagree that he can’t afford to miss on high expenditures. I don’t know what the numbers are for the players selected, but I would just like to see one more high school player rather than a physically maxed out college performer in the 7th because a 3 year below replacement level career from a 7th rounder is less valuable to me than taking one shot on finding a Hader. I have no problem with a whiff on Willems (though I think it’s way too early to write him off) because they took a shot.

In conclusion, I have no problem with the draft. They know more than me. I hope the draft has good results. I think they’re good at drafting high school players and I’d rather take a swing on a high school player than Ryan Higgins or Johnny Rizer.

Some of what I wrote there was not entirely directed at you. I was being lazy. I think we are essentially on the same page. I want those kinds of prospects too. Elias' process obviously does not like HS pitchers. Very picky on HS hitters, so far so good. I too have not given up on Willems, but not a great start for him. He needs to mature and take things seriously. 

Fangraphs having that many HS players in the top 100 does not surprise me. A few of them (Rodriguez, Henderson, DL and Mayo) are Orioles, two were picked by Elias. Soon, they can add Jackson Holliday. When Elilas took over, this organization lacked athletic prospects up the middle. We now have them in abundance. I think his idea is to mitigate risk by developing those he can to trade for the pitchers he wants after they show they are legit.

As a side note, I looked but could not locate an article I read a few years ago. IIRC, I believe HS players were outnumbered by college guys in MLB, overall. I am not great with search engines, unfortunately. But, to your point, I believe more of the star players were not college guys. I wonder what effect COVID will have overall on that, along with the 20 round draft.

I think Elias is still looking to stock quality depth in his inventory. He is going to have to make some moves soon to get the pitching he needs, and this draft is to restock the system behind those moves. At least he did not play it safe and take Lee or Berry. Holliday was a pretty big HS play. 

Until we know more about the guys he picked, hard to say they did or did not go with high upside. We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

[IPlayGM]

I also wonder if he gets to the point where he feels there is a “full stock” of talent in the system if they would then alter their plan and maybe take a few more of the riskier picks. 

[Sydnor]

9 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Some of what I wrote there was not entirely directed at you. I was being lazy. I think we are essentially on the same page. I want those kinds of prospects too. Elias' process obviously does not like HS pitchers. Very picky on HS hitters, so far so good. I too have not given up on Willems, but not a great start for him. He needs to mature and take things seriously. 

Fangraphs having that many HS players in the top 100 does not surprise me. A few of them (Rodriguez, Henderson, DL and Mayo) are Orioles, two were picked by Elias. Soon, they can add Jackson Holliday. When Elilas took over, this organization lacked athletic prospects up the middle. We now have them in abundance. I think his idea is to mitigate risk by developing those he can to trade for the pitchers he wants after they show they are legit.

As a side note, I looked but could not locate an article I read a few years ago. IIRC, I believe HS players were outnumbered by college guys in MLB, overall. I am not great with search engines, unfortunately. But, to your point, I believe more of the star players were not college guys. I wonder what effect COVID will have overall on that, along with the 20 round draft.

I think Elias is still looking to stock quality depth in his inventory. He is going to have to make some moves soon to get the pitching he needs, and this draft is to restock the system behind those moves. At least he did not play it safe and take Lee or Berry. Holliday was a pretty big HS play. 

Until we know more about the guys he picked, hard to say they did or did not go with high upside. We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

I think we are essentially on the same page. Holliday is definitely a big swing, and I’m also happy they didn’t play it safe.

You make a great point about quality depth. In Houston, they took shots on high school players like Whitley, Tucker, McCullers, Cameron, our old friend Rio Ruiz, and now emerging Patrick Sandoval. It will be interesting to see where things go as the system continues to build up. Perhaps they will be more willing to draft some of those high school players when they’re comfortable with the system depth.

I am also certain they will always analyze things they could have done better. If the results from the last two drafts where they are clearly drafting a type aren’t where they want them, I have full confidence they’ll alter their model. It’s nice to have that confidence in the decision makers.

[Tony-OH]