Mariners set to sign Rodriguez?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Hallas said:

I don't think this is quite right.  Posey started his 8/159 deal before his first arb year.  If you hack off the last 2 years of his contract and substitute pre-arb numbers in place (we can assume 1 million) you get 8/121. Then from here you can add inflation (about 30%) and you get around 8/160.

Is a 30% salary inflation point just an estimate or do you have a source?

Just it seems high to me.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Keygans said:

He would not.   I’d guess he would be looking at 6/140 to start any conversation. 

That’s not even remotely realistic.  He has zero chance of making that much money in the next 6 years.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I don't think this is quite right.  Posey started his 8/159 deal before his first arb year.  If you hack off the last 2 years of his contract and substitute pre-arb numbers in place (we can assume 1 million) you get 8/121. Then from here you can add inflation (about 30%) and you get around 8/160.

For right now, let’s go off the assumption that he finishes top 2 in ROY and the Os don’t get the extra year.  Let’s also assume health and high level performance 

2023: 770k

2024: 770K

2025: 6M

2026: 15M

2027: 25M

Rough estimates for arb…let’s just, for discussion purposes, say he makes 50M (which is more than I laid out here) in the next 5 years.

3 years left…30-35M a year?  Call it 3/100.

So, that would be in the ballpark of your number.

But that’s basically giving Adley the best case scenario contract.  Usually with these types of deals, you get some kind of a discount.  If all we are doing is guaranteeing we get him for those FA years but there is no discount, I don’t see the sense in signing the contract.

The only reason I can see in signing it is that you think he’s MVP level in his free agent years and believe that those guys will be getting 45+M a year by then, which is probably true.

But I don’t think that’s enough of a savings to do an 8 year deal with a C.

[Sports Guy]

Posey also signed his deal a little later in his career and he signed it coming off an MVP year.  He had also already won ROY and was a main piece on 2 championship teams.

All of that matters.  
 

He also saw a huge raise in year 1 of the contract but according to spotrac(not the best source but all I could find), he didn’t really make more in the second year of the deal.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Posey also signed his deal a little later in his career and he signed it coming off an MVP year.  He had also already won ROY and was a main piece on 2 championship teams.

All of that matters.  
 

He also saw a huge raise in year 1 of the contract but according to spotrac(not the best source but all I could find), he didn’t really make more in the second year of the deal.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1575468-buster-posey-and-san-francisco-giants-agree-on-8-year-extension.amp.html

It looks like spotrac was wrong.  Big surprise.  That site blows.

They have Posey a lot of money in that first year of the deal, coming off the MVP.   That said, he basically made 50M those first 6 years, which is what I’m saying for Adley…ballpark wise at least. 
 

You then had Posey for 5 FA years.  I’m proposing 3 for Adley.  That makes a difference too.  
 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is a 30% salary inflation point just an estimate or do you have a source?

Just it seems high to me.

I'm using cost per WAR, which is outlined in this article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

 

I guestimated 9 million for current cost per WAR which represents quite a bit of deflation, but I felt like it was close enough for this.  If anything you could argue it's been higher.

[Hallas]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1575468-buster-posey-and-san-francisco-giants-agree-on-8-year-extension.amp.html

It looks like spotrac was wrong.  Big surprise.  That site blows.

They have Posey a lot of money in that first year of the deal, coming off the MVP.   That said, he basically made 50M those first 6 years, which is what I’m saying for Adley…ballpark wise at least. 
 

You then had Posey for 5 FA years.  I’m proposing 3 for Adley.  That makes a difference too.  
 

well that's confusing.  A usatoday article has it at 8/159.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/giants/2013/03/29/buster-posey-giants-sign-eight-year-extension/2036161/

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

well that's confusing.  A usatoday article has it at 8/159.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/giants/2013/03/29/buster-posey-giants-sign-eight-year-extension/2036161/

Yea I know.  I think we can just go off of the basic premise though.

You bring up the point about the rise in salaries and that’s true.  But the ROY and MVP and 2 titles matter a lot for Posey.  Ultimately, I think a deal in the 8/120-140 range could be hammered out.  I think I’m doing that.  Anything beyond that, I don’t see the point.

[Hallas]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For right now, let’s go off the assumption that he finishes top 2 in ROY and the Os don’t get the extra year.  Let’s also assume health and high level performance 

2023: 770k

2024: 770K

2025: 6M

2026: 15M

2027: 25M

Rough estimates for arb…let’s just, for discussion purposes, say he makes 50M (which is more than I laid out here) in the next 5 years.

3 years left…30-35M a year?  Call it 3/100.

So, that would be in the ballpark of your number.

But that’s basically giving Adley the best case scenario contract.  Usually with these types of deals, you get some kind of a discount.  If all we are doing is guaranteeing we get him for those FA years but there is no discount, I don’t see the sense in signing the contract.

The only reason I can see in signing it is that you think he’s MVP level in his free agent years and believe that those guys will be getting 45+M a year by then, which is probably true.

But I don’t think that’s enough of a savings to do an 8 year deal with a C.

I took the last 2 years of his contract number (21.5m) and replaced them with pre-arb values (1m each) which got me at 118 million. Then after that I factored inflation (1/3 or so) which ads a little less than 40 million to the total value, which gets me at around 155-160m.  You could argue that this is still inflated since you're replacing some 1-year contract numbers with guaranteed money in a position that tends to get injured a lot.  So you could probably hand wave some percentage away.  That's still at 150m.

 

I don't really know which is more accurate, by the way: using Posey's contract as a baseline or using the 2022 deals for non-catchers as a baseline.  If he wins ROY then I'd lean closer to Posey's contract, for what it's worth.  The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.  You're right that Posey winning MVP probably adds some value to his contract.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I took the last 2 years of his contract number (21.5m) and replaced them with pre-arb values (1m each) which got me at 118 million. Then after that I factored inflation (1/3 or so) which ads a little less than 40 million to the total value, which gets me at around 155-160m.  You could argue that this is still inflated since you're replacing some 1-year contract numbers with guaranteed money in a position that tends to get injured a lot.  So you could probably hand wave some percentage away.  That's still at 150m.

 

I don't really know which is more accurate, by the way: using Posey's contract as a baseline or using the 2022 deals for non-catchers as a baseline.  If he wins ROY then I'd lean closer to Posey's contract, for what it's worth.  The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.  You're right that Posey winning MVP probably adds some value to his contract.

I think it matters that a 21 year old stud OFer just got 8/120.   The Acuna deal, even if it wasn’t a great one, matters. 
 

All of these say that’s the area Adley should be in and he’s older and a much more demanding position.  
 

I think the bigger question is, does Adley even want to sign one of these deals?  As a catcher, he will be limiting his long term potential earnings by signing this deal now.

He May be on with a 6 year deal, eating up 1 year of FA, for 80-90M and then hitting the market as a FA at around age 30, hoping to get a lucrative 5 year deal.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it matters that a 21 year old stud OFer just got 8/120.   The Acuna deal, even if it wasn’t a great one, matters. 
 

All of these say that’s the area Adley should be in and he’s older and a much more demanding position.  
 

I think the bigger question is, does Adley even want to sign one of these deals?  As a catcher, he will be limiting his long term potential earnings by signing this deal now.

He May be on with a 6 year deal, eating up 1 year of FA, for 80-90M and then hitting the market as a FA at around age 30, hoping to get a lucrative 5 year deal.

I think Acuna both signed his deal during a down FA period, and also undersold himself.  Obviously Franco and Rodriguez do count.  But Rodriguez's contract is really hard to establish a baseline value for because of the escalators and the player option.  It's not *really* an 8/120 deal, because the team decides to decline the team option it becomes essentially a 13/210 with an opt-out after that 8th year.  If the team exercises the option it ranges from 16-320 to 18/470 depending on MVP voting.

 

Obviously the 5/90 player option is only getting exercised if he suffers a career-ending injury.  But it's technically there.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

I think Acuna both signed his deal during a down FA period, and also undersold himself.  Obviously Franco and Rodriguez do count.  But Rodriguez's contract is really hard to establish a baseline value for because of the escalators and the player option.  It's not *really* an 8/120 deal, because the team decides to decline the team option it becomes essentially a 13/210 with an opt-out after that 8th year.  If the team exercises the option it ranges from 16-320 to 18/470 depending on MVP voting.

 

Obviously the 5/90 player option is only getting exercised if he suffers a career-ending injury.  But it's technically there.

Yea it’s there but that isn’t definite, 100% guaranteed money.  The 8/120 seems to be that.

[Satyr3206]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Boras.   Let's hope for 4 great years from Adley.   Trade him after year 4, for prospects.   

Yep. Best strategy.

[deward]

2 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

Yep. Best strategy.

I am baffled and perplexed by anyone who is excited about the impact Adley is having now, but would sign on for this approach. That would be a last resort for me, if extension negotiations have totally broken down. 

[Hallas]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea it’s there but that isn’t definite, 100% guaranteed money.  The 8/120 seems to be that.

The 5/90 is a player option that is voided if the team exercises the 8/200 team option.    So the guaranteed amount is technically 12 or 13 (somewhat unclear) and 210m.  Though the 5/90 portion is very likely to be opted out of.  Ken Rosenthal tweeted confirmation of this.