2023 Steamer projections up at Fangraphs

[Just Regular]

They forecast Adley 6th MLB-wide in projected 2023 WAR among position players.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer

Adley 5.7, Gunnar 4.3, Mullins 3.1, Urias 2.2, Mountcastle 2.1, Hays 2.0, Santander 1.8, Mateo 1.6 for your eight regulars.    Westburg 1.2 and Stowers 0.7 depending on your DH preference.

Grayson 1.7, Bradish 1.4, Hall 0.9, Kremer 0.9, Bautista 0.8, T. Wells 0.8 the only six projected over half a win.

The Grayson forecast is 129 innings - Steamer I believe just does rates, playing time guesses from Fangraphs staff - I believe RosterResource affiliated with them now.

Current personnel they cobble together a season's worth of innings like:

Kremer 170, Bradish 160, Wells 140, Grayson 130, Voth 120, Zimmermann 100

10 others forecast between 50 and 70 innings; John Means at 35 the most notable name <50.

[tntoriole]

14 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

They forecast Adley 6th MLB-wide in projected 2023 WAR among position players.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer

Adley 5.7, Gunnar 4.3, Mullins 3.1, Urias 2.2, Mountcastle 2.1, Hays 2.0, Santander 1.8, Mateo 1.6 for your eight regulars.    Westburg 1.2 and Stowers 0.7 depending on your DH preference.

Grayson 1.7, Bradish 1.4, Hall 0.9, Kremer 0.9, Bautista 0.8, T. Wells 0.8 the only six projected over half a win.

The Grayson forecast is 129 innings - Steamer I believe just does rates, playing time guesses from Fangraphs staff - I believe RosterResource affiliated with them now.

Current personnel they cobble together a season's worth of innings like:

Kremer 170, Bradish 160, Wells 140, Grayson 130, Voth 120, Zimmermann 100

10 others forecast between 50 and 70 innings; John Means at 35 the most notable name <50.

No pressure Adley boy!!  … just produce more than Manny and Trout lol … gulp!! 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

No pressure Adley boy!!  … just produce more than Manny and Trout lol … gulp!! 

Projecting him at 5.7 isn’t exactly a stretch.  He was at 5.3 this year in 3/4 of a season, and that includes the first 3-4 weeks while he was still adjusting offensively.  As to ranking above Trout, I don’t see how they can project Trout to play 150 games and yet be worth only 5.6 fWAR.  He was worth 6.0 fWAR in 119 games last year, which would be anout 7.5 per 150 games, and that’s a pretty typical Trout season.  

[Just Regular]

Starting pitching options

QO Excellence: deGrom 5.5, Rodon 4.5, Bassitt 2.5, Eovaldi 2.4, M. Perez 1.9, Ty. Anderson 1.7

Non-QO Safe: Kershaw 3.3, Heaney 2.6, Quintana 2.0, Taillon 1.9, Manaea 1.9, Kluber 1.7, Eflin 1.7, K. Gibson 1.6, Stripling 1.5, Wacha 1.5, Syndergaard 1.4, Clevinger 1.4, Taijuan 1.4, Smyly 1.3, M. Boyd 1.2, D. Duffy 1.2, Miley 1.1, Lorenzen 1.1, Minor 1.1, Greinke 1.0, R. Hill 0.9, Cueto 0.9, Lyles 0.8, Pineda 0.7, Davies 0.6

Continuing the looong tradition of Projections Love Andrew Heaney.

The dozen safe pitchers between Heaney and Taijuan, plus Kodai Senga of course, until trades I hope have two Orioles in there.

[Just Regular]

The Depth Charts guesses give the Teams an Average of 1790 innings when 2022 MLB actuals were 1436 per Team, and 6261 PA when actuals were 6068, so I had to do algebra to get results per 1436 IP and 6068 PA, but using the personnel as of tonight, it sees BAL 18th MLB-wide at projected 2023 run differential.

This forecast is Yankees without Judge, deGrom and Rodon playing for "nobody", BAL giving a lot of innings to Zimmermann, Watkins, etc.

East - TOR 105, TBR 95, NYY 50, BAL 20, BOS 10

Central - CLE 35, MIN 30, CHW 20, KCR -25, DET -55

West - HOU 105, SEA 95, LAA 50, TEX -15, OAK -45

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

The Depth Charts guesses give the Teams an Average of 1790 innings when 2022 MLB actuals were 1436 per Team, and 6261 PA when actuals were 6068, so I had to do algebra to get results per 1436 IP and 6068 PA, but using the personnel as of tonight, it sees BAL 18th MLB-wide at projected 2023 run differential.

This forecast is Yankees without Judge, deGrom and Rodon playing for "nobody", BAL giving a lot of innings to Zimmermann, Watkins, etc.

East - TOR 105, TBR 95, NYY 50, BAL 20, BOS 10

Central - CLE 35, MIN 30, CHW 20, KCR -25, DET -55

West - HOU 105, SEA 95, LAA 50, TEX -15, OAK -45

This is a really interesting post.  I'm sure I could pick apart the process to arrive at the number, but intuitively, that feels right: The O's need to add about 80 runs to the roster to be in the top echelon of the American League, and those 80 runs must come above and beyond the increased playing time for the youngsters, notably our two best players Adley and Gunnar.

That's the question of the offseason: How do we gain eight wins reasonably and without hampering future considerations?

A TOR should be projected to provide 40-50 of those runs.  A DH/COF/1b should be to add 20-30.

This team is not far off.  It doesn't need massive turnover.  Two-three good signings should see this team into the playoffs.

 

[MarCakes21]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

This is a really interesting post.  I'm sure I could pick apart the process to arrive at the number, but intuitively, that feels right: The O's need to add about 80 runs to the roster to be in the top echelon of the American League, and those 80 runs must come above and beyond the increased playing time for the youngsters, notably our two best players Adley and Gunnar.

That's the question of the offseason: How do we gain eight wins reasonably and without hampering future considerations?

A TOR should be projected to provide 40-50 of those runs.  A DH/COF/1b should be to add 20-30.

This team is not far off.  It doesn't need massive turnover.  Two-three good signings should see this team into the playoffs.

 

A TOR gives you 40-50, but no way if Hays/Santander/Mountcastle are all worth about 2 WAR, you’re getting a 4 WAR player in FA unless it’s one of the big SS. Abreu won’t bring that back.

So focus on where you can gain. Two SP can quickly grab you 7-10 wins over Wells/Voth/Watkins projections of replacement level approximately. And all of those run differentials.

[MarCakes21]

For reference, with the same tool Abreu is projected for 2.6 WAR. Not much of an upgrade over Mountcastle/Santander, but way more expensive.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

A TOR gives you 40-50, but no way if Hays/Santander/Mountcastle are all worth about 2 WAR, you’re getting a 4 WAR player in FA unless it’s one of the big SS. Abreu won’t bring that back.

So focus on where you can gain. Two SP can quickly grab you 7-10 wins over Wells/Voth/Watkins projections of replacement level approximately. And all of those run differentials.

Well, there will be a diminshing return with starters as well, though I agree it's not as announced as it is on the positional side of the roster.

Notice I projected more like 20-30 for the positional upgrade.  Basically, we need to upgrade a lot of Mancini's and Odor's (and Chirinos') at bats.  Of course, a lot of of the upgrade to Odor's abs is cooked into the formula for next year already, with Henderson getting most of them.

But a guy like Abreu certainly could do 20 runs for this lineup.  Guys need days off.  Guys get injured.

[Pickles]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

For reference, with the same tool Abreu is projected for 2.6 WAR. Not much of an upgrade over Mountcastle/Santander, but way more expensive.

But he's in addition to them.  I guess it really boils down to how you feel about Stowers.  I'd rather have 650 abs of Abreu than 650 abs of Stowers, and the difference there may well be getting to 20 runs or so.

[Just Regular]

11 hours ago, Pickles said:

those 80 runs must come above and beyond the increased playing time for the youngsters, notably our two best players Adley and Gunnar.

And then whatever is inside the fanciest box of chocolates - Grayson Rodriguez.

Last year the biggest discovery was whether 3-win Adley or 7-win Adley shows up.    Same basic deal with '23 Rodriguez.      If Grayson delivers 5.7 wins instead of 1.7, it provides half that distance from the middle to the lead in one roster spot.     

DL Hall forecast under 1 win another one where its all upside.    If he sucks its just more Norfolk shuttle, and Driveline Students of the Week can almost indefinitely produce at a 0.5-1.0 WAR pace if your organization is sharp enough.    Please no one get too attached to Joey Krehbiel as the roster gets stronger.

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Just Regular

[Pickles]

44 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

And then whatever is inside the fanciest box of chocolates - Grayson Rodriguez.

Last year the biggest discovery was whether 3-win Adley or 7-win Adley shows up.    Same basic deal with '23 Rodriguez.      If Grayson delivers 5.7 wins instead of 1.7, it provides half that distance from the middle to the lead in one roster spot.     

DL Hall forecast under 1 win another one where its all upside.    If he sucks its just more Norfolk shuttle, and Driveline Students of the Week can almost indefinitely produce at a 0.5-1.0 WAR pace if your organization is sharp enough.    Please no one get too attached to Joey Krehbiel as the roster gets stronger.

 

The issue with Rodriguez putting up a monster season like that is that even though he might very well perform admirably he isn't going to be anywhere near a full season's workload.

But yeah, I could definitely see scenarios where he far exceeds the 1.7 WAR projection.  

[sportsfan8703]

In what world is Zimmerman throwing 100 IP?  All the predictions are going to be light on Kremer, Bradish, and Voth. All three guys made significant adjustments mid season and those stayed true till the end of the season. 
 

HOU could not touch Bradish in two starts and they also struggled against Voth. 

[Just Regular]

Anyone can do this anytime, its about Five Good Minutes with Excel.

Download Steamer Arms.    Pivot-table by Club, Sum of IP and Sum of ER.

Repeat with Bats, Sum of PA and Sum of R.

Paste the 30 lines across columns, do algebra to force Runs to scale to 2022 actual IP and PA, plus one minus the other and you're done.

On the 100+ innings for Bruce Zimmermann, everyone knows the '23 Orioles don't want to do that, its just the state of rosters today.     You, me, Mike Elias, Jordan Lyles, Taijuan Walker's agent, Adley Rutschman, Kim Ng....we all know.

[Frobby]

BB-ref has projections up that I believe come from Marcel.   Here’s some OPS projections, Steamer first, Marcel second.  

Rutschman .799/.781

Mountcastle .764/.763

Mateo .644/.658

Urias .721/.732

Henderson .790/.757

Hays .734/.732

Mullins .733/.766

Santander .760/.752

Stowers .750/.717

McKenna .635/.664

Vavra .708/.701