Orioles 2022 31-50 Prospects

[Tony-OH]

As always, don't get too caught up in the the rankings at this point. As deep as the system is there are still interesting guys we haven't covered so lets look at the 31-50 prospects.

31. Carlos Tavera – RHP (A+): The 23-year old righthander may have been forgotten a bit due to his injury plagued 2022 season that was cut short by the end of July, but he misses bats and has three solid pitches. Tavera’s best pitch is his changeup it may have the best changeup in the system. He pairs it with a 93-95 MPH fastball and a slider that can flash average, but is his 3rd right now. Put up a 32.9% K% and a 15.6%  swinging strike percentage, but he struggles with his consistency. If he can stay healthy and can find more consistency he has a starter ceiling, but may be better in a reliever role overall.

32. Silas Ardoin – C (CPX/A): The Orioles 4^th round pick in the 2022 draft, Ardoin is considered a plus defender behind the plate but also a guy with an improving bat. Didn’t hit much in his professional debut, but did slash .271/.391/.513/.904 with 12 homers and 20 doubles in 294 PAs at Texas University in his junior year. Has a back up vibe if his bat doesn’t translate, but could potentially have a starting catcher upside if the bat comes around.

33. Maverick Handley – C (AA): Finally got out of Aberdeen and put up career highs hitting, slashing .236/.352/.417/.769 in 308 PAs in Bowie. Considered a plus defender behind the plate, his caught stealing percentage went down to 29% and he committed a career high seven passed balls in his 68 games behind the plate. Has a backup catcher ceiling and should start the year in Norfolk (AAA) next year.

34. Juan De Los Santos – RHP (A): The 6-2, 250 pound right-hander sits 93-96 MPH and can touch 98-99 at times. He offsets that velocity with a slider, curveball and change though none are average major league pitches at this time. The slider is his best offspeed offering and he may be better suited in relief role ultimately. He’ll start next season at Aberdeen. At 21-years old.

35. Jean Pinto – (RHP) (A+): Short right-hander’s stuff didn’t play quite as well against High-A hitters but still missed bats with a slider and split-change that can each flash plus. His change is a weapon against lefties, but needs to find consistency in his slider. Walk rate shot up with is a bit of yellow flag. Needs to prove he can find more consistency and better command while in AA next season. Pitches much better in relief and that could be his best role.

36. John Rhodes – (OF) (A+/AA): In his first full minor league season, this former 3^rd round pick showed the ability to get base, but struggles to find his game power and hit just five home runs in 352 PAs between Aberdeen and Bowie. More of a line drive hitter and probably needs to make some swing adjustments to get more lift consistency. Decent defensive corner outfielder. Has a 4^th outfielder vibe, but played at 21-years old last year so still has a chance to be more.

37. Brandon Young – (RHP) (AA): Would have been a shoo-in for the top 30 had he not gone down with an elbow injury early in the season. Ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss some of next season but could be back by mid-season. Young has four pitches that he can throw for strikes with his fastball (92-94, t95) and changeup being his best offerings. He works his fastball well up in the zone and at six foot six, he looks like he gets good extension which may help his fastball play up and contribute to a good amount swings and misses. His change has good drop and arm side run giving him a weapon against lefties. He also throws a mid-70s curveball and low 80’s slider.  

38. Justin Armbruester – (RHP) (A+/AA): The 6-foot-4, 235 pound right-hander with a 92-95 MPH fastball, slider and below average change. His slider can flash solid average or even plus on occasion, but its not consistent and not sure it’s a pitch that will miss major league bats. He gets some swing and miss with the fastball up in the zone, but he can get barreled when he makes mistakes. His changeup must improve in order to give him a weapon against lefties who hit him pretty well. Probably more of a middle reliever, but if his changeup can come around he might end up a 5^th starter.

39. Cade Strowd – RHP (A+): When you talk about raw stuff, This 6-foot-2 right-hander brings some of the best in the organization. Fastball can sit 95-96 though when he came back from a mid-season injury, he was sitting 96-98, touching 99 mph. Throws a hard slider at 87-89 that will flash plus and even has a high rate curveball. So why is he 39 on this list? Command is something that needs to improve and he’s been used only as 1-2 inning reliever and he missed time last season due to injury. Without a doubt, he’s a guy to keep an eye on next year at AA.

40. Raul Rangel – RHP (CPX/A): Tall lanky right-hander that had a bunch of nagging injury that cost most of his 2022 season. Fastball can sit 92-95 and there may be more in there once he fills out a bit. Shows a real good change and will use his slider well against lefties. This is all about projection and we’re giving him a mulligan for last year.

41. Xavier Moore – RHP (A): No one put up more dominant numbers this season than this 23-year old did, but gets most of his success with a plus almost bugs bunny change up that give left-handers a fit. He does have a slider and a 91-94 MPH fastball as well, but the question is whether his repertoire will work with better more mature hitters. We’ll find out next year in AA.

42. Moises Chace – RHP (A): Pitched at just 19-years old last year in A ball, holding his own against mostly older competition. Throws 91-94 MPH, with a decent slider and change. Obviously with a 6.3 BB/9, command is an issue and that will determine is outcome.

43. Luis DeLeon – LHP (DSL): 6-foot-3, 170 pound lefty with a 89-93 MPH, and a feel for the curveball and change. Missed a ton of bats, but will pitch at 20-years old next year and has not pitched in the states yet. Scouts seem to think there’s more in the tank velocity wise, but the question is will he be able to command?

44. Juan Nunez – RHP (FCL/A): Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, brings a fastball that sits 94-96, but can touch 98 on occasion. His best offspeed pitch is his slider, though he also has a curveball and change. Has a long way to go command wise, but when he’s on, he has a starter’s repertoire.

45. Alfred Vega – RHP (FCL): Picked up in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft from the Yankees, the 21-year old Vega has a 92-95 t97, fastball, two breaking balls and feel for a change. Has a lower ¾ release that allows his fastball to play up a bit. He’s a scrawny late bloomer who may have more in that arm.

46. Collin Burns – SS (A+): Above average defense at SS is his calling card along with the ability to play effectively at 2B. The stick is ok, but a little light giving him a utility possibility since he hits left-handed and has average wheels.

47. Deivy Cruz – LHP (CPX/A): At just 18-years old, this left-hander shows four pitches and pretty solid feel for pitching. He’s a little guy so there may not be a lot more in the arm, though his 91-93 MPH fastball is not too bad. While he can miss bats, it’s more because of his ability to mix pitches than quality of stuff. His command needs to improve as well, but he’s got youth on his side.

48. Creed Willems – C/1B (A): His first full professional system was not very good, but he did slash .284/.355/.494/.849 over his last 93 PAs. The left-handed hitter didn’t show the power that was expected and struggles to hit lefties. Defensively he moves well behind the plate, but his receiving and blocking need improving and he only threw out 22% of runners attempting to steal. He was one of the youngest players in the league so don’t give up on him yet. He’ll probably repeat with Delmarva in 2023.

49. Juan Rojas – LHP (FCL): Acquired in the Jorge Lopez deal, this short, young pitchability lefty missed some bats in the Florida Complex League with his ability throw multiple pitches for strikes. Similair to Deivy Cruz but Cruz is more athletic.

50. Cristian Benavides – SS (DSL): Young athletic SS who has a good chance of sticking at SS according to scouts who saw him in his first professional season in the DSL. Put up high line drive rates but also high swinging strike % rates so it’s unclear how that will work when he gets over to the states. Despite the good LD rate, only had 8 extra base hits to include two homers. Worth keeping an eye on though in 2023.

[RZNJ]

I count 9 Latin American FA pitchers on the list.  Pinto, Vega, Rojas, and Núñez acquired from other teams.  Cute move getting Vega in the minor league Rule 5.

[Tony-OH]

I'll be finishing it off with 51-75 shortly.

[Frobby]

14 of the 20 are pitchers.  Good to see given the dominance of bats towards the top of the list.   And I was glad to see Creed Willems on here given your criticism of him at times, especially in the first half of the season.   Ardoin was a bit of a surprise for me, but glad to see him just off the top 30.  It would be nice if we had a solid backup for Adley without having to sort through other teams’ trash.   

[now]

From these evaluations it looks like a list of 21-40 in past years, bumped to 31-50 by now.

[btdart20]

I saw Tavera this summer.  I was not overwhelmed but the Philly minor leaguers weren’t having good ABs either.  But that tends to be the case with plus CH pitchers.  

That same game was part of Adley’s rehab and he was  man among kids.  But Burns was one of the few other guys who had quality ABs and loud contact.  Feels like Burns and Rhodes need to pick Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo’s brain for hitting to maximize their skills.  Some guys aren’t power hitters but they can improve their own strengths/approach.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Ardoin was a bit of a surprise for me, but glad to see him just off the top 30.  It would be nice if we had a solid backup for Adley without having to sort through other teams’ trash.   

I had the same thought on Ardoin.  

 

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

14 of the 20 are pitchers.  Good to see given the dominance of bats towards the top of the list.   And I was glad to see Creed Willems on here given your criticism of him at times, especially in the first half of the season.   Ardoin was a bit of a surprise for me, but glad to see him just off the top 30.  It would be nice if we had a solid backup for Adley without having to sort through other teams’ trash.   

Agreed on the #of pitchers.  And on Ardoin.  I’m not sure what to make of him yet.

[Jammer7]

Great stuff, Tony! Really well done. Would you pin this one in the minors forum? 

[Jammer7]

It is good to see Luis DeLeon re-emerge in the top 50 discussion. Even if it’s all projection, it is encouraging to know that Tony’s contacts believe in him in the same breath as Rangel.

Equally disappointing to not see Maikol Hernandez in the top 50. I have read many of your previous comments on him, so not a shock. It’s disappointing when the team spends over a million on a kid who is not excelling yet. There is still time and all, and hopefully he is working hard on his game. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Equally disappointing to not see Maikol Hernandez in the top 50. I have read many of your previous comments on him, so not a shock. It’s disappointing when the team spends over a million on a kid who is not excelling yet. There is still time and all, and hopefully he is working hard on his game. 

Goes to show you what a crapshoot these big international signings can be.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Great stuff, Tony! Really well done. Would you pin this one in the minors forum? 

I'll move it soon and pin it there.

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Goes to show you what a crapshoot these big international signings can be.  

Sure. Orioles fans aren’t used to big dollar international signees. And Elias’ track record now makes us surprised when they don’t work out. I guess we’re getting spoiled. lol

In all seriousness, I get it that even the bigger hyped signees don’t usually work out. There is still time, hopefully. We know so little about the international guys until they come to the states. 

[linedrive]

The one guy I would like to have seen make the top 75 is our 7 foot tall, 2022 13th round pick, Jared Beck. I know he has a long way to go to be a prospect, but it's intriguing to watch someone that tall on a pitchers mound, and I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch in 2023. Hope he stays healthy and improves across the board.

Edited December 12, 2022 by linedrive

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Sure. Orioles fans aren’t used to big dollar international signees. And Elias’ track record now makes us surprised when they don’t work out. I guess we’re getting spoiled. lol

In all seriousness, I get it that even the bigger hyped signees don’t usually work out. There is still time, hopefully. We know so little about the international guys until they come to the states. 

There is a huge difference between the Amateur draft and the international signing class.

Let's start in the DR where top talent is brought to teams for workouts as early as 13 years old. Teams have academies where they try and get as much talent as possible to attend in hopes of getting them excited about playing for the organization. 

By 14-15 years old, many of the top talent have "agreements" in place with teams and while they are not binding until they officially sign, teams start to figure out where their budget will be spent two years out. 

That means they are making decisions on kids that would be High school Freshmen or Sophomores. 

Now add in the political turmoil in Venezuela and you have some kids that are malnourished or unable to be seen as much as the DR kids. Still, the top kids still are typically signed to agreements way before they officially signed in January of their 17th birthday year. 

So considering all that, you can see why it's a pretty big crap shoot and why you get late bloomers who signed for relatively little, but end up the much better prospects.

There are 9 DSL players in the top 75 and three in the top 30 who haven't even reached the states yet. That shows the Orioles are starting to identify good tools and players that can have some initial success.

Now, most likely, at least half may not be on this list next year if they implode in the FCL like Hernandez did, but it does show the Orioles (Koby Perez) are doing a pretty good job of identifying talent down there.

Now the proof will be in the pudding when one of the international players makes an impact at the major league level or is traded for major league ready talent.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, linedrive said:

The one guy I would like to have seen make the top 75 is our 7 foot tall, 2022 13th round pick, Jared Beck. I know he has a long way to go to be a prospect, but it's intriguing to watch someone that tall on a pitchers mound, and I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch in 2023. Hope he stays healthy and improves across the board.

I wanted to really like him too, but after watching him in his debut, I went away very unimpressed with the stuff. It's certainly a unique angle and it's worth seeing what he can improve upon under an offseason with the Orioles development, but for now, he's going to have to earn his way on next season.