BP Orioles list

[Just Regular]

They published their BAL list today

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/79288/2023-prospects-baltimore-orioles-top-prospects/

Someone there really likes Hudson Haskin, who they gave the 10th spot to.    Haskin's okay AA year kind of makes a benchmark for Beavers and Fabian to chase and hopefully eclipse.

They had a DL Hall trivia bit I wasn't familiar with:

Hall’s major league cameo is the only level he’s thrown more than 10 innings at and had a walk rate under 10%.

Story of the year on our FARM Gunnar going from starting the year with Swing Decisions questions to ending it near MLB best at that aspect of performance in his cup of coffee.  

Some swooning in that respect for the upgraded Jackson Holliday model, starting I guess at a much higher point than Gunnar did.

For low-minors players I like to delineate between having a good eye and taking major-league at-bats. The former doesn’t always play as well up the ladder—if you have a good eye at these levels, you can just keep the bat on your shoulder and draw walks. Holiday does the latter. He is fine being aggressive early in counts and comfortable working back from two strikes. He can hold up against breaking balls diving out of the zone, foul off stuff that catches a bit of plate. When he gets something to drive he has the kind of bat whip that can spray line drives from line-to-line. He can stay back on offspeed and drive it to the left-center gap, and should grow into 25+ home run power in time. He’s a complete hitter, a plus hit/plus power shortstop that will be a nightmare for any pitcher that likes to nibble.

 

[Frobby]

So what’s the order of their top 10 (or whatever number it is)?

[Just Regular]

They went:

OFP 70 - Gunnar-Grayson-Holliday

OFP 60 - Cowser-Mayo

OFP 55 - Westburg-Norby-Hall-Kjerstad-Haskin

That feels super generous in Haskin's case, though their lead writer Jeff Paternostro mentioned a couple times in the piece how his hit tool evaluations feel in flux given how BAL and some others are helping players to excellent results a scout can't as easily tell.

I know Tony's tougher in general, and on Haskin in particular, but this piece did make me wonder if Haskin has a shot to outplay Ryan McKenna sometime in the not too distant future.

[RZNJ]

Haskin in. Ortiz out?    That’s an interesting take. I do agree with Mayo and Cowser with more upside offensively than the next tier, though I’d be tempted to put Kjerstad in there too.

Edited December 13, 2022 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Just Regular said:

They went:

OFP 70 - Gunnar-Grayson-Holliday

OFP 60 - Cowser-Mayo

OFP 55 - Westburg-Norby-Hall-Kjerstad-Haskin

That feels super generous in Haskin's case, though their lead writer Jeff Paternostro mentioned a couple times in the piece how his hit tool evaluations feel in flux given how BAL and some others are helping players to excellent results a scout can't as easily tell.

I know Tony's tougher in general, and on Haskin in particular, but this piece did make me wonder if Haskin has a shot to outplay Ryan McKenna sometime in the not too distant future.

Haskin is similar to McKenna in that they are both 4th/5th outfielder types. McKenna is faster and probably a better defender overall, but maybe Haskin gets the nod with the hit tool.

If you take away Haskin's white hot first seven games, his .243/.353/.406/.759 line in 430 PAS at 23 years old looks close to McKenna's .232/.321/.365/.686 in 569 PAs as a 22-year old at Bowie. 

McKenna's 23 year old season was lost to COVID. 

McKenna is not the worse comp for Haskin when it comes to most likely outcomes. 

Making Haskin the 10th ranked prospects in this deep system is a head scratcher, but hey, everyone is allowed an opinion.

[Frobby]

BP always likes to go out on a limb on one guy.  This year it’s Haskin.  I do think he’s somewhat overlooked around here.  No way he’s top 10 though.  

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

BP always likes to go out on a limb on one guy.  This year it’s Haskin.  I do think he’s somewhat overlooked around here.  No way he’s top 10 though.  

That's your opinion and its now marked. Haskin is your new Fiorentino.

I'll take the under.

[interloper]

It's wild that Ortiz isn't on here. If Norby is on here, you almost have to include Ortiz by law. 

[Pickles]

First, I'd say the grades are very high given out by BP this year, and it hasn't been just confined to the O's guys.  Those 70s/60s above are not aligned with Fangraphs for instance, and Tony can speak for himself, but I'd say with him as well.  So that's something to keep in mind.

Overall, however, the list is very much in line with industry consensus, including Tony's, with one or two exceptions.

I'd like to quote some interesting statements about individual players, usually prompted by conversations we've had here.

All the glowing and expected were said about the top 3.

Point of contention here about Grayson.

This hasn’t been an unusually conservative development track for a prep arm

It got interesting with Cowser at #4.  This about his start at Aberdeen:

taking and swinging through too many hittable strikes

Cowser was widely seen as a likely corner outfielder coming out of the draft. But he played the vast majority of the time in center in 2022 and looked pretty competent out there.

Basically, he profiles better defensibly and worse offensively than when drafted, specifically cited are the swing and miss and the platoon issues.

They have Mayo at #5.  They're a lot higher on his defense than Tony.  I tend to trust Tony

sometimes flashy defense at third 

he’s a gigantic kid with some reliability issues

First-division third baseman

Westburg:

serviceable at shortstop, more than that at second or third.

That's assuring considering some of the other reports.  It also lines up with what many on this board have said.

Interesting and maybe worrying fact about Hall:

Hall’s major league cameo is the only level he’s thrown more than 10 innings at and had a walk rate under 10%

Now the most contentious placement is Haskin at 10.  I won't pretend the expertise to go crazy one way or another.  But BP's justification is interesting.  

two of the sea changes in the Orioles draft evaluation and acquisition over the last few years have been (1) modeling college performance with less regard given to strength of conference or schedule, and (2) moving away from visual hit tool evaluation. 

This is intriguing on multiple levels.  Threads could be written about this alone.

Joey Ortiz comes in at number 14.   They love his defense as much as everyone else.

It is pretty clear Ortiz is an at least above-average shortstop

I'm going to apologize for however long this post is and quit abruptly, but this evaluation should really excite one about the future of O's baseball.

[Frobby]

Thanks for those tidbits, @Pickles.  BP is usually good for one outlier pick, and this year it’s Haskin.  I personally find him quirky and interesting.   I wouldn’t have him in my top 10, but he’s worth following.  

[Pickles]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for those tidbits, @Pickles.  BP is usually good for one outlier pick, and this year it’s Haskin.  I personally find him quirky and interesting.   I wouldn’t have him in my top 10, but he’s worth following.  

Well the idea that they're modelling less for strength of schedule and "moving away from visual hit tool evaluation" I find more interesting than Haskin.

As far as the tidbits, they really were very positive.  Their grades seem high across the board this year, but even adjusting for that, they're really high on a lot of the O's guys.

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, Pickles said:

Well the idea that they're modelling less for strength of schedule and "moving away from visual hit tool evaluation" I find more interesting than Haskin.

 

The only thing I can think of when they say that is with the draft picks of Haskins and Beavers. I'm assuming when they say "visual hit tool evaluation" they are talking about not being worried about hitters having those really pretty swings. 

If they go into more detail let me know. 

 

 

[Pickles]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The only thing I can think of when they say that is with the draft picks of Haskins and Beavers. I'm assuming when they say "visual hit tool evaluation" they are talking about not being worried about hitters having those really pretty swings. 

If they go into more detail let me know. 

 

 

Yeah, they don't go into detail about what they mean by that, but I surmise they mean they don't care what a guy looks like when swinging the bat, they care about the results.

I'll be sure to update any further clarifications.