Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, first of all, I’m not furious.  I’m discussing the merits of a baseball move and why I hate it.

Secondly, the limited impact to the team isn’t my concern. I have already said I wouldn’t be shocked if he bounces back. I have already said even if he was good in 2022 I still wouldn’t want him.  
 

I have a huge problem with the thought process and the decision. That bothers me. It bothers me that this team has proven that they will stick to vets not performing well because of leadership, perceived good defense, etc..All of that is wrong. The whole thought process to making this decision is wrong.  
 

 

Perceived good defense is probably another thread, but clearly the Orioles evaluate defense differently the then the metrics we have.

[Jammer7]

51 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The go select yes, because you haven't voted yet.

BTW, what makes you think Elias will bench an $8 million player. He wouldn't bench Odor and he was making the bare minimum. At the end of the day, buckle up for at least 475 PAs of Frazier next year regardless of his output.

I will not be categorized or pigeon-holed into an opinion. I will be content to sit here on this fence.
 

Did anyone really beat out Odor defensively in 2022? They tried Vavra, and he was well below average at 2B. They wanted him to work out, but it’s just not good. They tried Gunnar, and that was just a thing where he was not prepared at 2B. Made a few costly errors. Hyde admitted he put Gunnar is a bad position there.

I think Odor had a role in the clubhouse that made them “ride or die” with Rougie. Kind of a play the ones who got you here. Managerial loyalty, especially after the failures of prospects to unseat him. I would have liked to have seen Urias at 2B more with Gunnar at 3B, personally. I will say that like Urias at 3B better than 2B.

I firmly believe that there is a trade coming involving an infielder, and maybe a reliever. Mateo makes sense. Gunnar to SS, maybe Westburg to 3B and Frazier to 2B for now. If Ortiz or Norby checks the boxes at Norfolk after 200 at bats or so by June and Frazier is still hitting weak fly balls, then yes, I think he gets sat much more. But he’ll have to be beaten out. Competition is what drives a team in this position to be better. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Actually, I only called what they've done a fact, not how they will move forward. What I said was that we have to go off how they've operated in the past as the expected way they will move forward to otherwise proven differently. 

I even said perhaps they will learn. But at the end of the day, Elias did not spend $8 million to sit Frazier on the bench.

Saying that, Elias could change how he operates in 2023 and beyond as legitimate prospects show they are ready. But so far, besides Rutschman and Henderson, two obvious immediate everyday plays, he has not shown the willingness to play prospects over his vets of choice even while the team is in contention for a wildcard and the veterans were failing.

Now he has paid a veteran to play over Westburg at 2B. Now maybe the team doesn't like Westburg's defense enough to play him there everyday (I disagree because I think his bat would outweigh his defensive limitations and while he was inconsistent, he's not that bad at 2B) or maybe they plan to trade him? 

Either way, I think Elias has shown a preference to play veterans or at least his acquisitions even when he went against the stats and metrics and signed them anyways (We were all wondering why he signed Odor at the time but most thought it was just a depth signing more then he was going to be the everyday 2B, and no one thought Aguilar was necessary).

Until he does something otherwise, Elias believes his system of analysis is better then conventional thinking. In the case of Odor and Aguilar and Phillips to a much lesser extent, he was wrong.

We shall see how it plays out. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think we need to be clear.  Nobody knows whether Frazier will rebound (and by how much), stagnate, or deteriorate further.   There’s only probabilities.  

Per ZiPS, Frazier’s median projection is a significant but not full rebound, to 91 OPS+ and 1.8 fWAR.   That projection has taken into account the batted ball metrics, etc.   So based on that (and Steamer/Marcel), I believe it is more probable than not that Frazier will have some degree of rebound.  But it’s not a certainty.  ZIPS also says there’s a 30% chance that Frazier will be stagnant or worse in 2023.   That’s not negligible.   There’s also a 20% chance he’s a 3+ fWAR player.   That’s not negligible either.  Neither of those outcomes would shock me.   
 

I don’t really know what the point of this post is. We all know there is a wide range of outcomes for him.

His WAR is likely going to be driven by his defense in 2023. That was still above average. The odds are he can still be worth .5-1 WAR defensively.  But I’m guessing Ortiz can be worth at least that too, just defensively.

He’s a completely unnecessary signing.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

a team trying to get to the playoffs

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Yes. Plus Frazier gets on base better and can play the OF. I’m happy. 

Yeah, that .305ish OBP that he has posted over his last 800+ PAs is going to be a BIG help next year. 

[Jammer7]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'm not sure they are betting on a mechanical adjustment to bump the EV.  I bet it's more about quality of contact (in the Jeff McNeil mold) vs. loud contact.  If Frazier can square up the ball consistently (even without the added umph), he'll likely get on base more often (i.e. the Babip will rebound). 

I've been digging for pitches per PA, but haven't been able to find it.  I suspect it's better than average.  Combined with low K% and (potentially) rebounding Babip, he's a good candidate to be a .260/.330/.370 type hitter.

@Can_of_corn - I saw that EV piece too.  It was well done.  That seems to be the cutting edge of the unknowns.  Interesting that Vavra was called out specifically in that article as well.

In his interviews, he has talked about the mechanics adjustments. I went and looked at video and saw what he was talking about. Take a look at his fly ball to ground ball ratios. That is maybe the biggest reason he has struggled. I don’t see the value in trying to make him hit 350 foot fly balls. Let him get back to a line drive approach. I know, gasp, such an old school thought. lol

[Jammer7]

10 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Well…. 

I couldn’t find the green font in my phone menu. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Why sign a middle infielder when the strength of your prospects is middle infield?  If the stated reason is that he is LH and Westburg is RH we should all raise the BS flag. IMHO this signing does nothing to advance the development of the team. I'm going to root for him, but the signing is a real head-scratcher.

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Yeah, that .305ish OBP that he has posted over his last 800+ PAs is going to be a BIG help next year. 

I was comparing him directly to Odor. That’s it. Man has a lifetime career OBP of .336. If his BABIP returns to normal from last year you are right there. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I was comparing him directly to Odor. That’s it. Man has a lifetime career OBP of .336. If his BABIP returns to normal from last year you are right there. 

Their overall offensive value was almost identical last year. Maybe Frazier miraculously bounces back after 1.5 mediocre years in spite of his declining skills and metrics, but it probably would have been more advisable to just sign a good player at an actual position of need instead of an expensive, redundant reclamation project like Frazier if making the playoffs was actually a priority for next year.

[jamalshw]

I voted no on the poll because I don't think he's all that necessary of an add and I wouldn't have made the move, but I don't think it's a terrible move depending on his usage. If he's the starting 2B to open the year with Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS and Mateo traded (or sprinkled in there) then it's fine as long as Westburg and/or Ortiz are promoted when they knock down the door at AAA. His ability to play the OF helps if Hays struggles and if Westburg earns a promotion, Mountcastle is struggling and Frazier is playing well, it allows the flexibility to maybe try Westburg at 1B. There's versatility there and if he's used as a filler piece with that versatility it's fine. If he becomes penciled into 2B most games like Odor (particularly once we get into mid-May and beyond), then that's an issue. 

[Brooks The Great]

16 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I voted no on the poll because I don't think he's all that necessary of an add and I wouldn't have made the move, but I don't think it's a terrible move depending on his usage. If he's the starting 2B to open the year with Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS and Mateo traded (or sprinkled in there) then it's fine as long as Westburg and/or Ortiz are promoted when they knock down the door at AAA. His ability to play the OF helps if Hays struggles and if Westburg earns a promotion, Mountcastle is struggling and Frazier is playing well, it allows the flexibility to maybe try Westburg at 1B. There's versatility there and if he's used as a filler piece with that versatility it's fine. If he becomes penciled into 2B most games like Odor (particularly once we get into mid-May and beyond), then that's an issue. 

There are always going to be injuries, but this is what will happen if there are no trades and no injuries. Which is a big part of what makes the signing terrible as everything stands right now.

[Frobby]

I want to address the point about Frazier’s foot speed, which I believe could be a legitimate concern.  The drop was drastic enough (0.3 ft/sec after holding steady from 2020 to 2021) that it almost makes me wonder if Frazier was playing hurt part of the year.   But I haven’t heard that he was.  

Anyway, it made me wonder if it impacted Frazier’s ability to beat out ground balls.  The answer is yes, but beating out grounders wasn’t a big part of his game.  He had 10 infield hits in 2021, 5 in 2022.   That’s maybe 8 points on his BA.  So, it’s not the main cause of his drop in hitting performance in 2022, but certainly could have been a contributing factor. 
 

[Orioles0615]

2 hours ago, eddie83 said:

What about Urias?  GG winner is doing what?

playing 3b

[LTO's]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Their overall offensive value was almost identical last year. Maybe Frazier miraculously bounces back after 1.5 mediocre years in spite of his declining skills and metrics, but it probably would have been more advisable to just sign a good player at an actual position of need instead of an expensive, redundant reclamation project like Frazier if making the playoffs was actually a priority for next year.

Why would it be miraculous for him to bounce back? He was an all star a season ago and was solid for basically his entire time with Pittsburgh before that.  Many of the Padres recent acquisitions have struggled initially for whatever reason but it's not even like he was bad there. He had a somewhat crappy year last year but that's more of the outlier than anything. Also, the metrics that are his carrying tools aren't declining.