The big arbitration cases, 2023

[Frobby]

Here are the largest gaps in the amounts demanded and offered in arbitration this year:

Bo Bichette $7.5 mm, Blue Jays $5 mm

Kyle Tucker $7.5 mm, Astros $5 mm

Teoscar Hernandez $16 mm, Mariners $14 mm

Gio Urshella $10 mm, Angels $8.4 mm

Max Fried $15 mm, Braves $13.5 mm

Jeff McNeil $7.75 mm, Mets $6.25 mm

Luis Arraez $6.1 mm, Twins $5 mm

That’s an interesting group of cases and I’ll try my hand at guessing the outcomes over the next couple of days.  Notably, Bichette, Tucker and Arraez all are Arb-eligible for the first time, and each of them were offered $5 mm by their teams.  Their cases are all pretty comparable.  

[Frobby]

Let’s take the Tucker, Bichette and Arraez cases together.  All three were offered $5 mm by their clubs.

Kyle Tucker

Service time: 3.079

Career rWAR/fWAR: 12.8, 11.1

2022 rWAR/fWAR 5.2, 4.7

Player demand: $7.5 mm

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $5.6 mm/$4.75 mm

Bo Bichette 

Service time: 3.063

Career rWAR/fWAR: 12.9, 11.8

2022 rWAR/fWAR: 3.6, 4.5

Player demand: $7.5 mm

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $6.1 mm/$5.75 mm

Luis Arraez

Service time: 3.121

Career rWAR/fWAR: 10.4, 7.1

2022 rWAR/fWAR: 4.4, 3.2

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $5 mm/$6 mm

It’s a pretty interesting comparison.  Tucker and Bichette are very close in career value, with a slight edge to Bichette.   Tucker had the better 2022 - rWAR says it was by a wide margin, fWAR says it was by a small margin.  Both MLBTR and Cot’s think Bichette is worth more than Tucker, though I’m not sure I agree.

Arraez is behind both Tucker and Bichette in career value, though the fWAR margin is much bigger than the rWAR margin.  fWAR also places him significantly below the others in 2022 value, though rWAR places him solidly ahead of Bichette in 2022.   MLBTR has him getting the least of the three; Cot’s has him getting the most (though I can’t imagine why).   

All three players have demanded more than MLBTR and Cot’s think they should get.   In the case of both Tucker and Bichette, their demands are further above the estimates than their teams’ offers are below it.   In Arraez’s case, he’s only $100 k above the Cot’s estimate, but he’s $1.1 mm above the MLBTR estimate, which matches what the Twins have offered.   

Looking around, the best comps in this year’s Arb 1 class are Cedric Mullins (who got $4.1 mm), Luis Urias ($4.75 mm) and Ty France ($4.1 mm).   Bichette, Tucker and Arraez are better than those three, but I think they’ve all overreached with their demands.   

If I’m handicapping this, I think the teams will win all three cases.   I won’t be surprised to see these cases go to a hearing without a compromise, especially the Bichette and Tucker cases, where I really think the players overplayed their hands.   If those cases settle, it should be well below the midpoint between the $7.5 mm demand and the $5 mm offer.   In Arraez’s case I could see a midpoint type settlement, but I’m still betting on the Twins if it goes to a hearing.   


 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Teoscar Hernandez $16 mm, Mariners $14 mm

Simply put, I think Hernandez will get his clock cleaned here.  Here’s Hernandez and three comparable players from his class:

Teoscar Hernandez - demands $16 mm

Service time: 5.097

Career rWAR/fWAR: 10.8/10.7

2022 rWAR/fWAR: 2.8/2.4

Career/2022 OPS+: 121/127

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $14.1 mm/$15 mm

Rafael Devers - agreed to $17.5 mm

Service time: 5.070

Career rWAR/fWAR 15.4, 18.1

2022 rWAR/fWAR 4.4, 4.9

Career/2022 OPS+: 124/141

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $16.9 mm/$16.5 mm

Ian Happ - agreed to $10.85 mm

Service time: 5.036

Career rWAR/fWAR: 11.0, 10.5 

2022 rWAR/fWAR: 4.4/3.5

Career/2022 OPS+: 113/119

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $10.6 mm/$11.5 mm

Rhys Hoskins  - agreed to $12.0 mm

Service time: 5.053

Career rWAR/fWAR: 11.1, 11.5

2022 rWAR/fWAR: 2.9, 2.2

Career/2022 OPS+: 125/122

MLBTR/Cot’s estimates: $12.6 mm/$11.0 mm

Bottom line, Hernandez is much more akin to Happ and Hoskins than he is to Devers.   In my opinion, the Mariners’ $14 mm offer is generous, and they should win the case if it goes to a hearing.   I wouldn’t settle if I were Seattle, but if they do, it should be for well under the $15 mm midpoint.

 

 

[Frobby]

Gio Urshela $10 mm, Angels $8.4 mm

This is a tough one to diagnose.  Urshela is in his fourth year of arbitration, which is pretty rare.  Last year he made $6.55 mm, so he’s looking for a roughly 50%, $3.45 mm raise in Arb 4.   The Angels are offering a 28%, $1.85 mm raise.  MLBTR estimated his salary at $9.2 mm, which is the exact midpoint between the demand and offer.  Cot’s $8.45 mm estimate strongly favors the Angels.  

Urshela has been worth 8.3 rWAR, 5.8 fWAR in his career.  He had a good 2022 season, worth 3.1 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR.  He has a 104 OPS+ in his career, 121 in 2022.  

I’ve been hunting around for comps and haven’t found any great ones.  Interestingly, the best one is probably Hunter Renfroe, who like Urshela, is in Arb 4, was traded to the Angels this offseason, and did not reach agreement with the Angels.  But unlike Urshela, the Angels offered Renfroe a $3.6 mm raise, from $7.65 mm to $11.25 mm, after a 2.7 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR season for Renfroe.  I really don’t see the justification to offer Renfroe a $3.6 mm raise while offering Urshela only a $1.85 mm raise.  (Renfroe is seeking a $4.25 mm raise to $11.9 mm.)

This is a close one, but I’m inclined to side with the player here.   This would be a good case to settle right in the middle, which coincides with the MLBTR estimate, but if not, I think the odds slightly favor Urshela.  

 

[Just Regular]

I haven't heard of the entire CBA being published yet or seen any digests of if MLB and the MLBPA have modernized criteria to go with anything a little more WAR-oriented.    With the old "RBIzzz" sensibilities, the Teoscar and Renfroe type guys doing a little better than the Happs and Urshelas who contribute some with the glove feel like outcomes the old system could have produced.

Jorge Mateo getting up over $2mm by agreement hinted to me raw counting stats still carry some clout.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Just Regular

[CharmCityHokie]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Gio Urshela $10 mm, Angels $8.4 mm

This is a tough one to diagnose.  Urshela is in his fourth year of arbitration, which is pretty rare.  Last year he made $6.55 mm, so he’s looking for a roughly 50%, $3.45 mm raise in Arb 4.   The Angels are offering a 28%, $1.85 mm raise.  MLBTR estimated his salary at $9.2 mm, which is the exact midpoint between the demand and offer.  Cot’s $8.45 mm estimate strongly favors the Angels.  

Urshela has been worth 8.3 rWAR, 5.8 fWAR in his career.  He had a good 2022 season, worth 3.1 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR.  He has a 104 OPS+ in his career, 121 in 2022.  

I’ve been hunting around for comps and haven’t found any great ones.  Interestingly, the best one is probably Hunter Renfroe, who like Urshela, is in Arb 4, was traded to the Angels this offseason, and did not reach agreement with the Angels.  But unlike Urshela, the Angels offered Renfroe a $3.6 mm raise, from $7.65 mm to $11.25 mm, after a 2.7 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR season for Renfroe.  I really don’t see the justification to offer Renfroe a $3.6 mm raise while offering Urshela only a $1.85 mm raise.  (Renfroe is seeking a $4.25 mm raise to $11.9 mm.)

This is a close one, but I’m inclined to side with the player here.   This would be a good case to settle right in the middle, which coincides with the MLBTR estimate, but if not, I think the odds slightly favor Urshela.  

 

First and foremost, thanks for all of the posts on this, I find it remarkably fascinating and the comps are super interesting. 

Do you (or anyone else) know when it comes to arbitration hearings if there is a set list of arbiters or does MLB/MLBPA do a request for procurement every off season and lawyers are chosen? As someone who does federal government procurement and contract negotiation for a living, I'm fascinated by the behind the scenes element. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 1/15/2023 at 5:50 PM, Just Regular said:

I haven't heard of the entire CBA being published yet or seen any digests of if MLB and the MLBPA have modernized criteria to go with anything a little more WAR-oriented.    With the old "RBIzzz" sensibilities, the Teoscar and Renfroe type guys doing a little better than the Happs and Urshelas who contribute some with the glove feel like outcomes the old system could have produced.

Jorge Mateo getting up over $2mm by agreement hinted to me raw counting stats still carry some clout.

Teoscar seems quite high.  I don't think I would want the O's paying him that as a free agent.

[Frobby]

Max Fried $15 mm, Braves $13.5 mm

Fried and the Braves went to arbitration last year over a $250 k gap, with Fried prevailing on his $6.85 mm demand over the Braves’ $6.6 mm offer.   There’s a lot more at stake this time, with a $1.5 mm gap.

Fried is a Super-4 (4.168 years of service) in his third year of arbitration eligibility, and put up an excellent season, finishing 2nd for the NL Cy Young Award by going 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA, good for 5.9 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR.  For his career, he’s at 18.1 rWAR, 13.8 fWAR.

There are not a ton of good comps for Fried, who is 3rd in his debut class in career rWAR, 1st among pitchers, and a Super-4.   These are the closest I have:

Brandon Woodruff has 4.161 years of service and has been worth 15.0 rWAR, 14.6 fWAR in his career.  He had a solid 2022 campaign in which he went 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA, good for 2.7 rWAR, 3.5 fWAR.  He earned almost as much as Fried in 2022 ($6.8 mm to $6.85 mm).   This year, he accepted an increase to $10.8 mm.

Walker Buehler has 4.168 years of service and has been worth 13.2 rWAR, 15.1 fWAR in his career.  He was injured for part of 2023, going 6-3 with a 4.02 ERA, worth 0.4 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR.   Paid $4.25 mm in 2022, he agreed to an increase to $8.025 mm for 2023.

Based on those comps, my feeling is that Fried has overreached this time.  It’s rare for a player to more than double his previous arbitration salary, especially in his third year of arbitration.  Fried had a better 2022 than either Woodruff or Buehler, but is reasonably comparable on a career basis.   Even with the Braves’ offer he’ll be making 30% more than Woodruff, 70% more than Buehler.   That seems like plenty enough to me.   MLBTR has estimated Fried at $12.2 mm, Cot’s had him at $12.75 mm.  I think the Braves win this one if it doesn’t settle.  

[Frobby]

Jeff McNeil $7.75 mm, Mets $6.25 mm

McNeil had a banner year in 2022, posting an .836 OPS good for 5.7 rWAR, 5.9 fWAR.   In his career, he’s been worth 16.9 rWAR, 16.1 fWAR.   He had a very poor 2021, a real outlier in his career, and settled for $3 mm in Arb 1.   So, he’s seeking more than a 250% raise in 2022.    He’s had 4.069 years of service.

There are lots of possible comps for McNeil out there, though arguably none are quite as good a player.  Probably the best comp IMO is Willy Adames, who’s been worth 15.4 rWAR, 13.7 fWAR in his career, 4.4 and 4.7 in 2022.  He has 4.105 years of service.  Adames had a good 2021 and earned $4.6 mm in Arb 1.   He settled at $8.7 mm for 2022.  

Our old friend Christian Walker has 4.124 years of service, and has been worth 8.8 rWAR, 8.5 fWAR in his career, 5.1 and 4.1 last year.  After making $2.6 mm in 2022, he accepted a raise to $6.5 mm in 2023. 

Tyler O’Neill has been worth 9.9 rWAR, 8.9 fWAR in 4.059 years of service.   He had a mediocre 1.3 rWAR, 1.3 fWAR 2022 in which he only played 96 games with a .701 OPS.   He received a raise from $3.4 mm to $4.95 mm in 2023.

Austin Meadows has 4.074 years of service and has been worth 6.7 rWAR, 6.3 fWAR in his career.  He had a rough 2022, worth 0.7 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR, playing only 36 games to a .675 OPS.  He took a modest raise from $4.0 mm to $4.3 mm.

Obviously, the Adames and Walker comps are much closer to McNeil’s situation, and in my opinion they reveal the Mets’ offer to McNeill to be too low.  Adames got a $4.1 mm raise coming off a 4.4 rWAR, 4.7 fWAR season, while Walker got a $3.9 mm raise coming off a 5.1 rWAR, 4.1 fWAR season.   The Mets are offering McNeil only a $3.25 mm raise though he had a better season, and has had a better career, than either Adames or Walker.   Plus, McNeil’s 2022 salary was low to begin with for a guy with his career accomplishments, mainly due to a poor 2021 season.   

So, while McNeill has been a bit aggressive here, I think he wins his case if it goes to a hearing.   If the case settles, it should certainly be north of $7 mm in my opinion.  It seems that MLBTR ($6.2 mm estimate) and Cot’s ($6.0 mm) both think the Mets were generous, but I flatly disagree.   



 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Frobby

[Just Regular]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

Walker Buehler has 4.168 years of service and has been worth 13.2 rWAR, 15.1 fWAR in his career.  He was injured for part of 2023, going 6-3 with a 4.02 ERA, worth 0.4 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR.   Paid $4.25 mm in 2022, he agreed to an increase to $8.025 mm for 2023.

Based on those comps, my feeling is that Fried has overreached this time.  It’s rare for a player to more than double his previous arbitration salary, especially in his third year of arbitration.  Fried had a better 2022 than either Woodruff or Buehler, but is reasonably comparable on a career basis.   Even with the Braves’ offer he’ll be making 30% more than Woodruff, 70% more than Buehler.

Buehler's ~$8mm number for 2023 is a "rich man's John Means scenario" - he was an August 2022 Tommy John, so maybe he's a reliever in the playoffs if they feel frisky.     

Enjoying these write-ups, you'll be well honed by the very high Orioles years later this decade if Angelos/Elias completely strike out with their best players.

Grayson Rodriguez has 4.168 years of service and has been worth <LOTS and LOTS> of WAR.....

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Buehler's ~$8mm number for 2023 is a "rich man's John Means scenario" - he was an August 2022 Tommy John, so maybe he's a reliever in the playoffs if they feel frisky.     

Enjoying these write-ups, you'll be well honed by the very high Orioles years later this decade if Angelos/Elias completely strike out with their best players.

Grayson Rodriguez has 4.168 years of service and has been worth <LOTS and LOTS> of WAR.....

Good point about Buehler, so he’s not really much of a comp.  Super-4 Arb cases for pitchers in the same ballpark as Fried are hard to find, so I posted it, but Woodruff is much more relevant.  If I really wanted to do a deep dive, I’d go back a few years for some other comps. I still doubt there are many.  

[Frobby]

I actually found a great past comp for Fried: Trevor Bauer in 2019 was a Super-4 who went to arbitration for the second straight year with Cleveland.  He was coming off a 6.0 rWAR, 5.8 fWAR campaign in which he’d gone 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, and had made $6.525 mm that season after winning his arbitration case.  To that point in his career he’d been worth 14.0 rWAR, 14.0 fWAR.  Cleveland offered a raise to $11 mm; he demanded $13 mm which was a 99% raise, and prevailed.  

The Braves’ $13.5 mm offer to Fried is a 97% raise and a slightly bigger raise in absolute dollars ($6.65 mm to $6.475 mm) than Bauer was awarded in 2019.   This reinforces my view that the Braves will prevail if the case goes to a hearing.  
 

[Frobby]

On 1/22/2023 at 11:59 AM, Frobby said:

Max Fried $15 mm, Braves $13.5 mm

* * *
I think the Braves win this one if it doesn’t settle.  

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35587625/pitcher-max-fried-loses-braves-salary-arbitration

  Got that one right.   

[Frobby]

On 1/15/2023 at 11:07 AM, Frobby said:

In Arraez’s case I could see a midpoint type settlement, but I’m still betting on the Twins if it goes to a hearing.   

Wrong.  That’s my first miss in a few years.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/luis-arraez-wins-arbitration-case-with-marlins.html

 

[Frobby]

 “I won’t be surprised to see these cases go to a hearing without a compromise, especially the Bichette and Tucker cases, where I really think the players overplayed theirhands.   If those cases settle, it should be well below the midpoint between the $7.5 mm demand and the $5 mm offer.”

Tucker loses his case to the Astros, so I’m 2 for 3 on my predictions so far.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/kyle-tucker-loses-arbitration-hearing-against-astros.html

Bichette and the Blue Jays reached a three-year deal, so that case is off the table.  Ditto for Jeff McNeill and the Mets.   Still waiting on the Hernandez and Urshela cases.