Chayce McDermott 2023

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Anything on his curve?  It’s one of those 12-6 that breaks about 2 feet straight down. Unhittable at times.

Admittedly, I don't really know how to measure breaking pitches well, but it looks like he gets serious separation btwn his 4 seam and curve.  Same with the slider which generated a lot of his whiffs today.

[Jim'sKid26]

37 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

I would say this article from Alex Chamberlain is the best place to start on VAA (vertical approach angle). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visualized-primer-on-vertical-approach-angle-vaa/

In essence, fastballs that have a higher (or closer to 0 since we're dealing with negative numbers) VAA, or approach the plate at a flatter angle are more effective than steeper fastballs.  In contrast, you'd want your sinkers to approach the plate at a steeper angle.

Pitchers can impact their VAAs.  First, a fastball higher in the zone will tend to come in flatter than one thrown below the knees. But the arm slot has to do a lot with how a pitcher's average fastballs crosses the plate.  Lower the arm slot, the flatter (think Paul Sewald) and conversely the higher the fastball the steeper (Felix Bautista).

This chart is all fastballs thrown this year, and there is a noticeable negative relationship between release point and VAA (-0.34 correlation for the numerically curious).

 

And given that there isn't a perfect correlation, that means there's room to exploit the relationship and be on the good side of the equation.  Its purely my hunch, but given that McDermott already has a release point (around 5.75 ft) that favors a flatter fastball, and he also posts above average IVBs on his fastball, it should lend to a fastball with a flatter VAA (independent of location).

Spencer Strider is the poster child of this, and it makes sense seeing how dominant he is with his fastball.

The beauty of this all comes together when seeing what a pitch with above average ride (IVB) and flatness can do.  The chart below measures swinging strike rate.  IVB is on the x-axis and VAA is on the y-axis.  You can see even if your fastball has limited ride, but has insane VAA (like > -4) you can still generate significant swing and miss.  A lot of that has to do with flatter fastballs being higher in the zone and more prone to swinging strikes, but you can still have an effective fastball if its flat with just average ride (kind of like Freddy Peralta).  But when you pair a flat VAA with good ride, it's game over for the hitter.

McDermott's 16-18 IVB, paired with (let's say) a -4.75 to -4.25 VAA (I'll try to pull the real numbers soon) has him close to or in the coveted red spot on the chart below.

Let me know if something isn't clear and I can try to explain further.  Its not the most intuitive thing to think about, but just another reason why velo isn't the primary factor when grading a pitcher's 4-seam.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the time you took to explain this and the reference. This is really fascinating. Will spend some time to get my head around it. Awesome work.

[Flash- bd]

Amazing that we got this arm for Trey Mancini. Really brilliant work at the deadline last season. Fuji looks similarly astute. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Amazing that we got this arm for Trey Mancini. Really brilliant work at the deadline last season. Fuji looks similarly astute. 

Seth Johnson might be flirting with beating John Means back into games even though his procedure was I believe a couple months later.     My guess would be if he's up for it Elias will want him to get one of those tastes before the offseason.

[Tony-OH]

This was a great appearance for McDermott overall and shows when he commands his stuff, he's quite good when it comes to missing bats. A 40% Whiff rate is pretty impressive especially the 38% rate on the fastball alone. @nvpacchi had a great post earlier on why the fastball plays despite the fact that the velocity readings are average. 

Now, he still throws too many uncompetitive pitches but he did have a nice 20% whiff rate in the zone which means it's not all about getting chases for him. That shows quality of stuff.

A few more outings without walking a bunch of guys could make him a promotion candidate for the pen if an opportunity arises. I could see him fulfilling Baumann's or Baker's role if they went down for some reason.

Yesterday it only took him 77 pitches to get through 5 innings but typically it takes a lot more, so I still see him as a guy heading for relief. But even if they still want to develop him as a starter, there's no reason they can't give him some big league time this year out of the pen if a need arises. 

I certainly rather see him than Gillaspie again. But either way, it was certainly a nice outing for him.

[RZNJ]

15 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

Amazing that we got this arm for Trey Mancini. Really brilliant work at the deadline last season. Fuji looks similarly astute. 

Seth Johnson reportedly has a better arm than McDermott.  Unbelievable and amazing trade.   The Lopez trade too.   And I think we might wind up saying something similar about Fujinami despite being a rental.

[emmett16]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Seth Johnson reportedly has a better arm than McDermott.  Unbelievable and amazing trade.   The Lopez trade too.   And I think we might wind up saying something similar about Fujinami despite being a rental.

Have a sneaking suspicion they sign Fujinami.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Have a sneaking suspicion they sign Fujinami.  

Don’t know.  I have a feeling his value is going to greatly increase and I read that he still wants a chance to start.   Of course, if he pitches well for the Orioles and enjoys a playoff ride he might push his agent to try and work something out.   His last appearance was an adrenaline rush.   I hope that’s the first of many.   I got Felix vibes from that one.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Don’t know.  I have a feeling his value is going to greatly increase and I read that he still wants a chance to start.   Of course, if he pitches well for the Orioles and enjoys a playoff ride he might push his agent to try and work something out.   His last appearance was an adrenaline rush.   I hope that’s the first of many.   I got Felix vibes from that one.

O's Baumann is a fan of the splitter too.

Michael Baumann on Mike Baumann | FanGraphs Baseball

If you could steal one pitch from another pitcher around the league, what would it be?

We were just talking about it yesterday. I was watching Shintaro Fujinami’s splitter. Yeah, I’d take Fuji’s splitter. Or maybe Matt Brash’s slider.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Don’t know.  I have a feeling his value is going to greatly increase and I read that he still wants a chance to start.   Of course, if he pitches well for the Orioles and enjoys a playoff ride he might push his agent to try and work something out.   His last appearance was an adrenaline rush.   I hope that’s the first of many.   I got Felix vibes from that one.

He fits that mold of what they love and thrive at developing.  I think now would be the time to float a 1 or 2 year contract and see if he bites.  As you mentioned, I think he is going to thrive and his value is going to skyrocket.  

[emmett16]

17 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

O's Baumann is a fan of the splitter too.

Michael Baumann on Mike Baumann | FanGraphs Baseball

If you could steal one pitch from another pitcher around the league, what would it be?

We were just talking about it yesterday. I was watching Shintaro Fujinami’s splitter. Yeah, I’d take Fuji’s splitter. Or maybe Matt Brash’s slider.

That would be a devastating pitch for Baumann.  Let’s hope it materialize over the next year.

Edited July 28, 2023 by emmett16

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

That would be a devastating pitch for Baumann.  Let’s hope it materialize over the next year  

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Nothing against Baumann having another weapon but I believe the only thing holding him back now is his command.  He’s got the stuff.

[emmett16]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Nothing against Baumann having another weapon but I believe the only thing holding him back now is his command.  He’s got the stuff.

His 4 seamer makes me nervous.  A splitter with same arm speed/arm action could make his 4 seamer play up.  He’s had more success with it this year but his xwOBA is .369 - last year when it was getting crushed it was .370. 
 

Edit: my bad for derailing the thread.  Back to Chayce  

Edited July 28, 2023 by emmett16

[Flash- bd]

On 7/28/2023 at 4:27 PM, RZNJ said:

Seth Johnson reportedly has a better arm than McDermott.  Unbelievable and amazing trade.   The Lopez trade too.   And I think we might wind up saying something similar about Fujinami despite being a rental.

Yeah that was really some kind of fleecing. Couldn't believe it at the time and still kinda can't tbh. 

On 7/28/2023 at 4:46 PM, RZNJ said:

Don’t know.  I have a feeling his value is going to greatly increase and I read that he still wants a chance to start.   Of course, if he pitches well for the Orioles and enjoys a playoff ride he might push his agent to try and work something out.   His last appearance was an adrenaline rush.   I hope that’s the first of many.   I got Felix vibes from that one.

Yeah. It's pretty hard to imagine that we got this level of arm for Lucas Easton...Elias is showing himself to be very effective in trades (as in pretty much everything else). 

[RZNJ]

53 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Yeah that was really some kind of fleecing. Couldn't believe it at the time and still kinda can't tbh. 

Yeah. It's pretty hard to imagine that we got this level of arm for Lucas Easton...Elias is showing himself to be very effective in trades (as in pretty much everything else). 

Very curious to see what he does in the next 48 hours.   Will he overpay for something if that’s what it takes?