Kyle Stowers: I hope we trade him after rebuilding his value

[banks703]

28 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Why would you be shocked if he doesn't return? He's going to be 34 and he's a free agent. What % of free agents don't move teams? Hicks is an outfielder and has a spot on this team getting regular at-bats. He's a free agent. That spot could open up. Stowers is an outfielder and was a fairly well regarded prospect with AAA success. To suggest there is no path to at-bats for him is ludicrous. The at-bats to be had are right there being taken by a player who is not under team control next year. 

Ryan McKenna has racked up almost 500 plate appearances and is exactly replacement level. I've laid out the case that I don't believe Aaron Hicks is a league average offensive player or a plus defender going forward. If Stowers can't replace this level of production, what makes you think he is attractive to other baseball GM's? 

The Orioles are 10th in OPS overall. They are 4th in OPS with RISP. Where are you getting this information that situational hitting is a bugaboo? You can have your Adam Frazier's of the world. I guess I'll take a ground-out over a strikeout. I'll trade that for a percentage point in OPS. 

And I'm sure that every third Tuesday of the month, in even calendar years, against teams that have blue in their colors, in stadiums in states that have an odd number of letters, against left-handed pitchers whose names begin with letters A through K .. that Kyle Stowers will outperform any of the players that are currently ahead of himon the org's depth chart. 

You're going to make me defend Ryan McKenna, which is really what is ludicrous. 

Why will I be shocked if Hicks finishes strong and doesn't return to the Orioles? Because of his ability to adequately play all three outfield spots, because he is a switch-hitter, because he doesn't strike out a lot and because he works counts. He is better fit on their team than is Kyle Stowers. Stowers is a left-handed RF who, for the Orioles, is redundant in every way that that there is for a player to be. He's not better than Cowser. He's not better than Kjerstad. He's not better than either of the other ML outfielders and within a year, EBJ is also going to pass him on the organization depth chart.  

Even if the O's don't bring back Hicks, McKenna would be next OF in line for playing time. If Kjerstad is remotely close to being ready he will be promoted before Stowers is recalled. 

I like Kyle Stowers as a player and I don't think that he got a legitimate chance at the Major League level. 

And for the record, the O's are 6th in Clutch this year, which is helped A LOT by guys like Frazier and Hicks. They were 22nd last year and 29th the year before. They 23rd in 2020 and 28th in 2019.. so yeah I would say that situational hitting has been a bugaboo for them for a while. Stowers and his K rate offer little confidence that in high leverage situations he'd make consistent contact to move a runner or be able to sacrifice himself. 

You're continuing to cherry-pick things to justify your position. Great. Let's have this convo in 2025. I'd bet my life savings that by that time EBJ and Kjerstad both have more AB as Orioles than does Kyle Stowers. 

Again, I like the player and I hope that he goes on to find success but it just doesn't seem that it's going to be with the O's and it's really not an argument that it should be with the O's given the org's depth in the outfield. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by banks703

[Matt Bennett]

34 minutes ago, banks703 said:

 

Why will I be shocked if Hicks finishes strong and doesn't return to the Orioles? Because of his ability to adequately play all three outfield spots, because he is a switch-hitter, because he doesn't strike out a lot and because he works counts. He is better fit on their team than is Kyle Stowers. Stowers is a left-handed RF who, for the Orioles, is redundant in every way that that there is for a player to be. He's not better than Cowser. He's not better than Kjerstad. He's not better than either of the other ML outfielders and within a year, EBJ is also going to pass him on the organization depth chart.  

Okay...so you think Aaron Hicks is valuable. The other 29 teams don't? Again I ask what percentage of free agents stay with their teams? Far from 100%. I'd wager it's far from 50%. Perhaps he likes an opportunity in a different city, or maybe he wants a guaranteed everyday spot, etc. I don't think Stowers is better than Cowser or Kjerstad. I don't think Hicks is better than Cowser or Kjerstad. Yet Hicks is still getting AB's. As I've said, I'm assuming Kjerstad is shifted more towards 1B where we are weak organizationally. 

 

34 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Even if the O's don't bring back Hicks, McKenna would be next OF in line for playing time. 

I disagree that Ryan McKenna should be the next OF in line for playing time should Hicks not return. McKenna has had his chance. As I've said, 500 AB's. Replacement level. Stowers hasn't had that chance. 

34 minutes ago, banks703 said:

And for the record, the O's are 6th in Clutch this year, which is helped A LOT by guys like Frazier and Hicks. They were 22nd last year and 29th the year before. They 23rd in 2020 and 28th in 2019.. so yeah I would say that situational hitting has been a bugaboo for them for a while. 

The Orioles were bad at clutch hitting in those years because they were bad at hitting. The 2023 Orioles are good at clutch hitting because they are good at hitting. This isn't a hard concept

Edited July 14, 2023 by Matt Bennett

[e16bball]

3 hours ago, banks703 said:

30+ more strikeouts per 100 ABs is not nitpicking.

The numbers you’re referencing provide (some) support for the claim that he would strike out 30+ more times over 100 games, not 100 ABs — which is a pretty big distinction.

The difference over the course of 100 PAs would likely be much closer to 10 more Ks by Stowers.

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The numbers you’re referencing provide (some) support for the claim that he would strike out 30+ more times over 100 games, not 100 ABs — which is a pretty big distinction.

The difference over the course of 100 PAs would likely be much closer to 10 more Ks by Stowers.

Yes. The site glitched and it wouldn’t let me edit it when I realized that I wrote ABs but meant games. 

[Greg Pappas]

4 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Is it a given that he is good for 20+ HRs?  There were only about 70 players in the entire league that hit at least 20 last year.   There are a lot of good hitters that are not on that list.   I don't know that we can pencil in Stowers as a 20 HR guy until he shows he can hit in the majors.   To be fair - he hadlsn't got much of a chance to date.

No.  It is not a given.  It's just the sort of numbers that I see him having as a regular somewhere, to illustrate what may be his potential value in trade.  I don't see a future for him here. 

One note: I was remiss in opining that Stowers is a solid OF defensively.  Frankly, I couldn't remember reading anything but that he had a solid arm.  I can't say how well he plays OF.  Whether good or pretty solid or below average on the corners, his defense will matter in any valuation.

[2001OriolesFan]

On 7/14/2023 at 12:12 PM, CaptainRedbeard said:

If you can trade Stowers for a fitting return from a team that views him as a potential starting caliber OF, then you do it no doubt. If the market doesn’t view him as more than a bench/depth guy, then might as well keep him as a bench/depth guy here. He has 2 more option years after this year and both Santander/O’Hearn only have one more year of control (and both Santander/O’Hearn could be dealt before that too). 

He’s a trade chip but if nobody wants to pay full price, just keep him. He’s still well worth his 40-man spot here.

(I feel similarly towards Vavra as well, but like Stowers significantly more and feel Vavra is much more on the DFA line where we will need his 40-man spot. Prieto has surpassed him if both remain in the org.)

 

You can't keep him as a bench guy. He will disappear in a rule 5 draft and we get nothing.

 

[foxfield]

On 7/14/2023 at 6:02 PM, banks703 said:

And I'm sure that every third Tuesday of the month, in even calendar years, against teams that have blue in their colors, in stadiums in states that have an odd number of letters, against left-handed pitchers whose names begin with letters A through K .. that Kyle Stowers will outperform any of the players that are currently ahead of himon the org's depth chart. 

You're going to make me defend Ryan McKenna, which is really what is ludicrous. 

Why will I be shocked if Hicks finishes strong and doesn't return to the Orioles? Because of his ability to adequately play all three outfield spots, because he is a switch-hitter, because he doesn't strike out a lot and because he works counts. He is better fit on their team than is Kyle Stowers. Stowers is a left-handed RF who, for the Orioles, is redundant in every way that that there is for a player to be. He's not better than Cowser. He's not better than Kjerstad. He's not better than either of the other ML outfielders and within a year, EBJ is also going to pass him on the organization depth chart.  

Even if the O's don't bring back Hicks, McKenna would be next OF in line for playing time. If Kjerstad is remotely close to being ready he will be promoted before Stowers is recalled. 

I like Kyle Stowers as a player and I don't think that he got a legitimate chance at the Major League level. 

And for the record, the O's are 6th in Clutch this year, which is helped A LOT by guys like Frazier and Hicks. They were 22nd last year and 29th the year before. They 23rd in 2020 and 28th in 2019.. so yeah I would say that situational hitting has been a bugaboo for them for a while. Stowers and his K rate offer little confidence that in high leverage situations he'd make consistent contact to move a runner or be able to sacrifice himself. 

You're continuing to cherry-pick things to justify your position. Great. Let's have this convo in 2025. I'd bet my life savings that by that time EBJ and Kjerstad both have more AB as Orioles than does Kyle Stowers. 

Again, I like the player and I hope that he goes on to find success but it just doesn't seem that it's going to be with the O's and it's really not an argument that it should be with the O's given the org's depth in the outfield. 

You had me at third Tuesday….