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Competitive Window- 24' roster


justcompete

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9 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Holliday is going to be on the OD roster next year. I don’t know why this is so hard for people to understand. There is almost no chance outside of injury that he comes up mid season and burns rookie status. 

What position do you see Holliday playing on OD next year?

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34 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Holliday is going to be on the OD roster next year. I don’t know why this is so hard for people to understand. There is almost no chance outside of injury that he comes up mid season and burns rookie status. 

They could bring him up on the Gunnar schedule and get ROY '25 while extending his window. 

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24 minutes ago, justcompete said:

Infield wise- do we move or move on from Fraizer, Meteo and Urias?

Replaced by Holliday, Ortiz and Norby?  

I'm just not sure we do that by opening day - we are not a start up any more.

There is no good reason to rush Norby:

1) He does not have to be added to the major league roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

2) He just turned 23 in June so age is not a reason to promote him to the majors.

3)  His fielding percentage (FP) at 2B in AAA is .965.  And major league average for FP for  2B is .984.  He still has work to do to get that consistent.

4) He has an 801 OPS at AAA.   Compared to Ortiz 934 OPS at AAA.  Or Westburg 939 at AAA.

Norby can easily be sent back to AAA next year to improve his offense and defense.

If Mateo and Frazier are not with the O's next year, Norby becomes the backup that gets called up if there is an injury to Urias, Gunnar, Ortiz or Westburg. At least until Holliday is ready.  And Holliday has not touched AAA yet.

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38 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Holliday is going to be on the OD roster next year. I don’t know why this is so hard for people to understand. There is almost no chance outside of injury that he comes up mid season and burns rookie status. 

Why is it so hard for people to realize that it isn’t a lock for him to be on the OD roster next season? 
 

He hasn’t played in AAA yet, which historically has been part of Elias’s plan. He also isn’t exactly at a “position of need.” He has a good to great bat, but does not have “next level” defense and isn’t displaying amazing power.

There is still stuff for him to work on and develop. 

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37 minutes ago, justcompete said:

Infield wise- do we move or move on from Fraizer, Meteo and Urias?

Replaced by Holliday, Ortiz and Norby?  

I'm just not sure we do that by opening day - we are not a start up any more.

Move on from Frazier, replace him with Ortiz and start him. Keep Urias for defense and depth. Mateo can be a sub or gone. I don't care. 

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I don't see them adding any meaningful FAs.  I expect them to sign or trade for a RP or two.  Mateo and Frazier get replaced by Ortiz and Holliday.  Santander to 1b full time.  Kjerstad to RF full time.  Cowser as 4th outfielder, DH, or in AAA as backup for an injury.  I think trade chips will be guys getting expensive: Hays, Urias, Santander (maybe).  Imagine they will trade for RP.  I think adjustments to roster will mostly be internal. 

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5 hours ago, justcompete said:

Clearly we have blast off and have opened the competitive window

Thinking about the roster make up one year from now as we build upon the success of this season.

Infield-best depth

Mountcastle/ options in house are ok-Santander/O'hearn/etc-can Mayo or Kjerstad force their way?

Westburg for me at 2nd Base

Henderson at 3rd

Holliday at SS-next August

Ortiz is the back up MIF

I like the idea of a vet infielder and would be ok with Frasier coming back.  Norby for me is depth or a trade chip

Catching

AD

McCann -comes back-buys time to see how Basallo progresses - decision needed by 2025

Outfield-

I think this is a spot to add a free agent/trade

Hays/Mullins/Santander all return

Can a prospect take a spot?  Lots of options but so far no one has knocked the door down-maybe it happens over the next year.

Mayo/Kjerstad/Cowser/Stowers/Tavera/Fabian/Haskin- lots of options.  Would love to see a trade or a signing

Pitching

A few aces (maybe) and a lot of mid rotation guys in free agency.

Hall/Povich/Mcdermott -not sure they step up in the next 12 months for the 24' playoff push

2023 season certainly opened our competitive window and the guys are getting battle tested.  However it ends we had great opportunity to evaluate our system.  Now we need to step on the gas pedal to push us to the next level- 

I agree with a lot of your thinking. 
As for retaining a vet in the infield, I think Urias > Frazier if the trade value isn’t enough to move him. Hyde doesn’t seem to always realize it but Urias is better vs righties. Plus, team control and a better defender than Frazier. I don’t really think it’s necessary to keep him though, if Holliday is in Baltimore at the start or midway next year. Norby maybe can out produce Urias offensively starting next year. And of course, there’s Ortiz who figures to be more than just the backup as you listed him as.

Your first base outlook seems right. Santander playing more first if/when another outfielder emerges seems logical.

I disagree more with the outfield assessment. One, in needing an addition from outside the org. If they bring back Hays and Santander, it’s crowded.  I’d guess it’s more likely only one is back due to contractual statuses and both having already hit their peaks as players. 

No, we haven’t seen a prospect knock down the door yet but I’d put the odds as higher that one of Kjerstad or Cowser produces above average next year than not. If, they are given the opportunity, which is why I see (more likely) Hays or Santander elsewhere. Plus, as you mention, Mayo could figure in the COF in addition to Norby and Westburg as possibilities, albeit less likely for these three. But they are gonna want to fit them somewhere. 

Pitching is where I hope they invest. Gibson has worked as a serviceable vet but the bar is higher now. There is depth amongst the starters and in the pen. Hopefully Flaherty proves himself as a #2/#3 and earns a three or four year deal. If not, they should be targeting a high level, dependable and experienced vet to lead these many young and promising arms. 

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On the Position Player Side

Step 1: Let Hicks & Frazier walk via free agency. Mateo can be non-tendered

Step 2: Trade Mountcastle and O'Hearn for pitching assets

Step 3: Promote Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Stowers, & Vavra to the majors, leaving an Opening Day Roster of

Catchers - Adley, McCann

3B/2B/SS - Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Urias

Outfielders - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL/COF - Santander, Kjerstad, Vavra

Obviously Stowers and Vavra are bench players and don't need to be playing a whole bunch. Holliday and Mayo will be knocking on the door in AAA. Norby's 97 wRC+ in Norfolk is uninspiring but is semi-interesting depth. I can similarly see how a trade of Hays could open up the spot for Kjerstad but I've thought for awhile now they were preparing him to be the 1B of the future. 

On the Pitching Side

Rotation: Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Free Agent Addition

Bullpen: Bautista, Cano, Tyler Wells, DL Hall, Irvin, Baumann + others 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

On the Position Player Side

Step 1: Let Hicks & Frazier walk via free agency. Mateo can be non-tendered

Step 2: Trade Mountcastle and O'Hearn for pitching assets

Step 3: Promote Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Stowers, & Vavra to the majors, leaving an Opening Day Roster of

Catchers - Adley, McCann

3B/2B/SS - Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Urias

Outfielders - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL/COF - Santander, Kjerstad, Vavra

Obviously Stowers and Vavra are bench players and don't need to be playing a whole bunch. Holliday and Mayo will be knocking on the door in AAA. Norby's 97 wRC+ in Norfolk is uninspiring but is semi-interesting depth. I can similarly see how a trade of Hays could open up the spot for Kjerstad but I've thought for awhile now they were preparing him to be the 1B of the future. 

On the Pitching Side

Rotation: Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Free Agent Addition

Bullpen: Bautista, Cano, Tyler Wells, DL Hall, Irvin, Baumann + others 

 

 

You really think Elias is going to trade Mountcastle and O'Hearn off a 100 win team?

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I think we see more of the Gibsons of the world (which I would rather not see) and more trading of lesser prospects. I think they will continue to hoard. 

 

Since I know they won't get an Ace I would like them to get a middle of the order bat and rework the bullpen. 

 

They need to 86 either Mateo or Urias (or both) if they plan on having Ortiz and Holiday. 

 

Ortiz, Kjersted, and Cowser should be on the opening day roster

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You really think Elias is going to trade Mountcastle and O'Hearn off a 100 win team?

If the alternative is either:

1. let your #2 overall draft pick and #25 ranked prospect in the game (Kjerstad) rot at AAA for a few more years

2. trade your #2 overall draft pick and #25 ranked prospect in the game

Then yes. 

I'm conservative with hoarding assets, but I have a hard time finding playing time for Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Cowser just by letting Frazier, Hicks, and Mateo walk. 

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