Cease vs everyone else

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We can agree to disagree. I’ve also looked at the XFIP. But, results do matter. He has great stuff I agree with you but the results need to be there are well. How much better was their defense the year before. I’m guessing it was pretty similar but I’m not going to waste my time. I don’t blame you/them for wanting to extract every last nickel of value. We/Elias don’t mind paying fair value but don’t want to overpay. 

Does he? Most of his pitch value is wrapped up in a plus slider that peaked in 2022. His fastball is ok, but outside of 2022, it's been an average pitch more than a go to pitch. 

Cease is a good pitcher and I like that he seems to bear down when he needs to a pitch well, but no way I'm giving up Mayo or Basallo for him, and if I must trade Cowser or Kjerstad, it's not coming with much else. Ortiz and a pitcher like Bright/Baumler/Young with a wildcard like Leandro Arias/Moises Chase/Edgar Portes might be a good package.

[dystopia]

51 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We can agree to disagree. I’ve also looked at the XFIP. But, results do matter. He has great stuff I agree with you but the results need to be there are well. How much better was their defense the year before. I’m guessing it was pretty similar but I’m not going to waste my time. I don’t blame you/them for wanting to extract every last nickel of value. We/Elias don’t mind paying fair value but don’t want to overpay. 

Once you start looking at stuff like xFIP, you’re really just grasping at straws at that point. 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Does he? Most of his pitch value is wrapped up in a plus slider that peaked in 2022. His fastball is ok, but outside of 2022, it's been an average pitch more than a go to pitch. 

Cease is a good pitcher and I like that he seems to bear down when he needs to a pitch well, but no way I'm giving up Mayo or Basallo for him, and if I must trade Cowser or Kjerstad, it's not coming with much else. Ortiz and a pitcher like Bright/Baumler/Young with a wildcard like Leandro Arias/Moises Chase/Edgar Portes might be a good package.

You seem to doubt Cease but are also willing to give up 2 top 100 guys and 2 lottery tickets.

Why give up that much if you don’t really like him?  Feel the Os can turn him around?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Once you start looking at stuff like xFIP, you’re really just grasping at straws at that point. 

lol…not at all. It’s all relevant and important to look at.

[dystopia]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

lol…not at all. It’s all relevant and important to look at.

Not really. The thing is, xFIP is two stats removed from a stat that reflects actual results. Baseball is too unpredictable for that to have much value. Roll Tide is right, at some point you have to look at actual results. Yeah, you can go “well, according to xRAHu2776jjKoOlStAT/9 his ERA should have been ____” but random season to season variance throws that all out the window.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Not really. The thing is, xFIP is two stats removed from a stat that reflects actual results. Baseball is too unpredictable for that to have much value. Roll Tide is right, at some point you have to look at actual results. Yeah, you can go “well, according to xRAHu2776jjKoOlStAT/9 his ERA should have been ____” but random season to season variance throws that all out the window.

Yes you do have to look at actual performance but all these stats that you act like aren’t important or relevant are the opposite of that thought.

The whole point is to look beyond the actual numbers and say, what signs do we have that there is more or less to this guy. 

[Number5]

The 2023 deadline was the ideal time for CWS to trade Cease.  They blew it, IMO.  Value is certainly less now.  If he is traded this off-season, my guess is that soxfans will be disappointed with the return.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Number5 said:

The 2023 deadline was the ideal time for CWS to trade Cease.  They blew it, IMO.  Value is certainly less now.  If he is traded this off-season, my guess is that soxfans will be disappointed with the return.

And the guys that blew it are out.

White Sox fans aren't expecting much I'm guessing.

They feel they have a disadvantage at the ownership level.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You seem to doubt Cease but are also willing to give up 2 top 100 guys and 2 lottery tickets.

Why give up that much if you don’t really like him?  Feel the Os can turn him around?

I don't that is that much of a return for mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a TOR if he can regain his 2022 magic.

Since the Orioles would have him for two years at a fairly cheap price, you are going to have to give up some prospect value. 

By the way, I reread my post and can see how you may think I'm giving up Kjerstad/Cowser AND Ortiz. I meant if they want Kjerstad/Cowser than you do it but don't give much else up. If you give up Ortiz then you can send a mid-prospect pitcher and a lottery ticket with him.

It was an either or, not both. No way I'm sending two top 100 prospects for Cease because I'm not convinced he's a sure thing.

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

White Sox fans aren't expecting much I'm guessing.

Perhaps you're right about what the majority of their fans are expecting, but the ones that type their opinions on various fan sites sure seem to me to be anticipating getting very strong prospect packages in return for Cease.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't that is that much of a return for mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a TOR if he can regain his 2022 magic.

Since the Orioles would have him for two years at a fairly cheap price, you are going to have to give up some prospect value. 

By the way, I reread my post and can see how you may think I'm giving up Kjerstad/Cowser AND Ortiz. I meant if they want Kjerstad/Cowser than you do it but don't give much else up. If you give up Ortiz then you can send a mid-prospect pitcher and a lottery ticket with him.

It was an either or, not both. No way I'm sending two top 100 prospects for Cease because I'm not convinced he's a sure thing.

Oh ok.  Makes more sense now.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but I don’t buy into Bradish as much as the rest of the board does.  Now, he has had really had a good 1.5 seasons, so that’s encouraging but I want to see him do it again before I’m fully in on him.

I think that’s fair.  But boy was he good the second half of last year.  

[dystopia]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes you do have to look at actual performance but all these stats that you act like aren’t important or relevant are the opposite of that thought.

The whole point is to look beyond the actual numbers and say, what signs do we have that there is more or less to this guy. 

I liken it to election polling. Sometimes it’s on the mark, sometime it isn’t. It’s been so off in recent years, one has to wonder what the value of it is anymore. 
 

Take FIP for example, which is supposed to indicate how a pitcher performs in the future. How often does it get it right within say, half a run per 9 innings? Would I have the same prediction prowess by flipping a coin? If so, then what good is it besides giving nerds something to get off to?

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, dystopia said:

Not really. The thing is, xFIP is two stats removed from a stat that reflects actual results. Baseball is too unpredictable for that to have much value. Roll Tide is right, at some point you have to look at actual results. Yeah, you can go “well, according to xRAHu2776jjKoOlStAT/9 his ERA should have been ____” but random season to season variance throws that all out the window.

If you don’t think defense has a material impact on results, then I don’t know what to do you.

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I liken it to election polling. Sometimes it’s on the mark, sometime it isn’t. It’s been so off in recent years, one has to wonder what the value of it is anymore. 
 

Take FIP for example, which is supposed to indicate how a pitcher performs in the future. How often does it get it right within say, half a run per 9 innings? Would I have the same prediction prowess by flipping a coin? If so, then what good is it besides giving nerds something to get off to?

Why do you believe FIP to be so inaccurate?  Is there data that actually supports this statement?