Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

Just now, dystopia said:

Not sure I understand what you're getting at here, I think we're pretty much on the same page of our opinion on Cease. I think a 3.70 to 4.00 ERA is a reasonable expectation for him next year with the Orioles defense behind him. 

Agreed …probably should’ve posed it to someone else. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You can lose a trade value wise and still have it turn out a good trade.  If Cease averages 5 FWAR over 2 years and Cowser + Ortiz average 6 WAR over 5-6 years we lost the trade but maybe it worked out for us especially if the guys we have instead of Ortiz/Cowser are also producing 3FWAR or better.

The Red Sox got taken to the cleaners in the trade for Sale.  A comparable trade for the O's would start with Holliday and DL Hall.   I'm sure that no one thinks the Red Sox won that trade.  A couple of years later the Red Sox won the World Series due in part to Sale.  I don't think any Red Sox fan is crying about the talent they traded away.  I want Elias to make trades that give the O's the best chance of winning the World Series without trading the majority of the farm. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I mean …. If Cowser develops and Ortiz ends up a solid MLB SS even if it’s not an Allstar you’ve lost value wise. The offset would be winning a WS.

Looking at this deal for a pure value standpoint is where people are screwing up.

First of all, you never know how a prospect will or will not develop. Lots of trades look crazy at the time but then end up nothing because the players fail.

But more than that, the Os need to bring in more upper echelon/high ceiling pitching and this is how it’s going to happen.

They just aren’t going to spend the money needed. So, this is it. You have to trade for it and considering the way the org is set up and considering how everyone here should be confident that Elias can replace guys, we should feel good about replacing these guys long term too.

Cease is also likely to be worth a QO after 2025, so you are going to add a top 40 pick for him as well.

[dystopia]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This isn’t reality but more hypothetical.

If you had to make the trade, which of these are you doing:

Cowser and Ortiz

Kremer, Ortiz, Norby and Stowers

I'd also pick A. The second one has a greater chance of backfiring, and also in that scenario you're swapping one pitcher for another PLUS you're giving up 3 prospects. Not sure why the Orioles would want to do that.

The first scenario I go back and forth on. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I'd also pick A. The second one has a greater chance of backfiring, and also in that scenario you're swapping one pitcher for another PLUS you're giving up 3 prospects. Not sure why the Orioles would want to do that.

The first scenario I go back and forth on. 

You do the second one because you lose nothing in the second one you can’t easily replace within your organization or by using pieces in your org to get something (is a replacement for Kremer)

Put another way…I would rather have the higher ceiling guy in Cowser vs Kremer/Norby/Stowers. A player like Cowser is far more difficult to replace than those guys are.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What’s the likelihood of both achieving that? What are Woo’s projections? 

Well, Cease has already achieved it and there is a lot in Woo’s profile  that says he has a higher ceiling than Kremer. Kremer does probably have a higher floor.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The Red Sox got taken to the cleaners in the trade for Sale.  A comparable trade for the O's would start with Holliday and DL Hall.   I'm sure that no one thinks the Red Sox won that trade.  A couple of years later the Red Sox won the World Series due in part to Sale.  I don't think any Red Sox fan is crying about the talent they traded away.  I want Elias to make trades that give the O's the best chance of winning the World Series without trading the majority of the farm. 

I wouldn’t say the Red Sox were taken to the cleaners.  When they got Sale he had two years of control.  He put up a combined 13.8 FWAR in 2017-18. Here is the trade.

The White Sox announced they have acquired Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz in exchange for Sale. 
 

Moncada has about 14 FWAR for his whole career.  Kopech has 1.9.  I’m assuming the other two guys are zero or close to it.

Edited December 3, 2023 by RZNJ

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You do the second one because you lose nothing in the second one you can’t easily replace within your organization or by using pieces in your org to get something (is a replacement for Kremer)

Put another way…I would rather have the higher ceiling guy in Cowser vs Kremer/Norby/Stowers. A player like Cowser is far more difficult to replace than those guys are.

You're undervaluing Kremer.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, Cease has already achieved it and there is a lot in Woo’s profile  that says he has a higher ceiling than Kremer. Kremer does probably have a higher floor.

Cease: yes but his other 4 seasons he’s a pitcher equal to Kremer. So what’s the probability 20% that he’s better than Kremer? 
 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, dystopia said:

You're undervaluing Kremer.

Not really..2 years ago, most would have DFA’ed him…now people act like he is some TOr level guy.

Hes fine. He’s a solid 4th starter….and the Os are loaded in many areas of the team and have the resources to greatly upgrade the rotation.

We know we need one spot..so upgrade from Kremer as well. Bringing in more cost controlled, younger, high ceiling talent should be happening imo.

The one getting undervalued is Cowser. You also trade role players before you trade higher ceiling talent.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Cease: yes but his other 4 seasons he’s a pitcher equal to Kremer. So what’s the probability 20% that he’s better than Kremer? 
 

No offense but there is no reason to discuss this with you. You don’t want to dig deep into the stats. You don’t want to have an actual conversation. Your back and forth with the WS guy and him talking about stat line xERA is proving this point.

Lets just say that we can agree to disagree and just save the headache of going back and forth.

[Safelykept]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This isn’t reality but more hypothetical.

If you had to make the trade, which of these are you doing:

Cowser and Ortiz

Kremer, Ortiz, Norby and Stowers

A week ago I would have been fine With Cowser and Ortiz but today maybe less, the 2nd option you propose has Kremer as headliner who even though he has more team control. but less upside than Cease. Kremer plus Norby and Stowers OK, no way is Ortiz going to be included in that package

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not really..2 years ago, most would have DFA’ed him…now people act like he is some TOr level guy.

Hes fine. He’s a solid 4th starter….and the Os are loaded in many areas of the team and have the resources to greatly upgrade the rotation.

We know we need one spot..so upgrade from Kremer as well. Bringing in more cost controlled, younger, high ceiling talent should be happening imo.

The one getting undervalued is Cowser. You also trade role players before you trade higher ceiling talent.

So, you're trading a SP with a 3.74 ERA the last two years for a pitcher who is likely to post a similar ERA next year with our defense, plus 3 solid prospects. Cease is better than Kremer, but not dramatically so, so that's no good IMO. 

I would hate to give up Cowser, but I understand you have to give up something to get something. I feel like it is a defensible trade but the second scenario just doesn't make a lot of sense from the O's perspective.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, dystopia said:

So, you're trading a SP with a 3.74 ERA the last two years for a pitcher who is likely to post a similar ERA next year with our defense, plus 3 solid prospects. Cease is better than Kremer, but not dramatically so, so that's no good IMO. 

I would hate to give up Cowser, but I understand you have to give up something to get something. I feel like it is a defensible trade but the second scenario just doesn't make a lot of sense from the O's perspective.

Same answer I gave to Roll Tide

[OriolesMagic83]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t say the Red Sox were taken to the cleaners.  When they got Sale he had two years of control.  He put up a combined 13.8 FWAR in 2017-18. Here is the trade.

The White Sox announced they have acquired Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz in exchange for Sale. 
 

Moncada has about 14 FWAR for his whole career.  Kopech has 1.9.  I’m assuming the other two guys are zero or close to it.

At the time, Moncada was thought of as a sure fire perennial All Star.  As the #2 prospect, he was seen as a small step down from how Holliday is seen now.  He's had some good years but never reached that level.  I guess it's a caution of signing guys still in the minors to long term deals.  A lot of them worked out poorly, such as Singleton for the Astros, Rusney Castillo for the Red Sox (never reached the majors afaik), guy for Philly (can't remember name).