2023 Orioles #3 Prospect is Coby Mayo - 3B/1B

[Gurgi]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

https://www.theballparkguide.com/blog/2023/02/02/the-10-longest-home-runs-at-oriole-park-at-camden-yards-the-ballpark-guide/

1. Carlos Correa — 474 feet

2. Edwin Encarnación — 466 feet

3 (t). Manny Machado — 465 feet

3 (t). Aaron Judge — 465 feet

5. Austin Hays — 464 feet

6 (t). Gunnar Henderson — 462 feet

6 (t). Miguel Cabrera — 462 feet

7 (t). Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — 460 feet

7 (t). Alex Rodriguez — 460 feet

9 (t). Mark Trumbo — 458 feet

9 (t). Chris Davis — 458 feet

9 (t). Rafael Devers — 458 feet

9 (t). Jonathan Schoop — 458 feet

https://www.mlb.com/news/ryan-mountcastle-hits-472-foot-homer-in-orioles-loss-to-astros#:~:text=Mountcastle smashes 472-foot shot,third game playing center field

BALTIMORE -- Another lively night at Camden Yards had everything going in the Orioles’ favor on Tuesday, as it so often has during a remarkable 2023 season for the club.

A 472-foot homer. A leaping catch by an inexperienced center fielder. Another tight game. And an almost victory against the defending World Series champions.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

While Mayo easily has the power to clear the Wall, he’s going to lose some homers out there just like anyone else.  But my sense is that he became more of an all-fields hitter in 2023 compared to 2021-22.   I’m not worried about it.  

Mayo backspins the ball which give him that natural loft. Sure, the wall could take a few like it will for any hitter, but I don't see it being an issue. When he first arrived in AAA he was getting under balls more to RF and flying out, but starting driving them more later in the year when he got hot. 

He certainly has the power to hit the ball out of all fields.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Coby Mayo's two-run home run | 08/30/2023 | MLB.com

 

"That one just landed"  He rattled off a full paragraph of info during the hang time on the bomb.  I'm not worried about the wall.  

That is hilarious because he did get in what seemed to be two sentences while watching that bomb fly.

BTW, he it the ball so far that statcast couldn't track it. It states the home run was 325 ft LOL. He hit it at 106.8 MPH and you can see the people chasing it behind the scoreboard. If that ball was less than 450 feet I would be surprised.

[RZNJ]

Some big boy blasts.

 

[ShoelesJoe]

Here's what has me excited about Mayo:

.267 / .393 / .512 / .905 as a 21 year old at AAA, even after being cold as ice for the first three weeks.

.260 / .355 / .585 / .941 -- that's 23 year old Pete Alonso at AAA Las Vegas in the PCL, back in 2018. 

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Some big boy blasts.

 

The one at 0:30 seconds... So far past the bleachers. The spectators struggling to climb the hill to retrieve the ball. Classic. 

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Some big boy blasts.

 

Another observation from those highlights. Mayo punishes low velocity, especially breaking balls and changeups. But the highest velocity fastball I saw was 94 mph. 

Is there any evidence that he also has success against higher velocity?

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Another observation from those highlights. Mayo punishes low velocity, especially breaking balls and changeups. But the highest velocity fastball I saw was 94 mph. 

Is there any evidence that he also has success against higher velocity?

I've seen him hit velocity just fine. That's not an issue for him.

Saying that, I didn't see him face a lot of high velocity guys this year. I know I've seen him turn on a 95+ fastballs on the past, and he doesn't get taken up the ladder all that much from what I've observed. 

He's got plenty of bat speed and hand/wrist quickness so it should be an issue.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've seen him hit velocity just fine. That's not an issue for him.

Saying that, I didn't see him face a lot of high velocity guys this year. I know I've seen him turn on a 95+ fastballs on the past, and he doesn't get taken up the ladder all that much from what I've observed. 

He's got plenty of bat speed and hand/wrist quickness so it should be an issue.

Here’s a comment from Eric Longenhagen’s pre-season Orioles write-up:

“Mayo’s swing is perhaps well-suited for the current ‘metagame,’ because so many contemporary fastballs ride to the top of the strike zone, which is where Mayo’s barrel hunts.”

 

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a comment from Eric Longenhagen’s pre-season Orioles write-up:

“Mayo’s swing is perhaps well-suited for the current ‘metagame,’ because so many contemporary fastballs ride to the top of the strike zone, which is where Mayo’s barrel hunts.”

 

This got me all tingly. Where his barrel hunts! Exciting!

Edited November 19, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[btdart20]

Aram Leonard's @ Just Baseball's take on 3B prospect rankings.  Nothing earth-shattering.  #2 behind Junior Caminero.

Top 10 Third Base Prospects for 2024 (msn.com)

 

2. Coby Mayo – Orioles – (Triple-A)

Height/Weight: 6’5″, 190 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 4th Round (103), 2020 (BAL) | ETA: 2024

HIT	RAW POWER	GAME POWER	RUN	FIELD	FV
45/55	60/70	50/60	45/45	40/50	60

A popular breakout candidate, Mayo did not quite have the year many had hoped he would in 2022, but he still put up above average numbers despite aggressive assignments and earned rave reviews during the Orioles’ spring.

 

Check out our interview with Coby Mayo!

Offense

Boasting a huge frame and long levers, yet with a surprisingly controlled swing, Mayo impressed with his feel to hit the second he entered pro ball. Despite his 6-foot-5 frame, Mayo manages his length well, posting solid contact rates.

As a 20-year-old adjusting to the upper levels in 2022, Mayo struggled to recognize more advanced spin, causing his strikeout rate to jump from 21.5% in High-A to 34.5% in Double-A. He also battled some nagging injuries. However, his advanced swing, above average contact rates and impressive athleticism for his size hedges any major whiff concern long-term.

Mayo worked with the Orioles on some minor swing tweaks heading into the 2023 season to help him tap into more power, and the results have been evident. His 90th percentile exit velocity jumped to 108 MPH with a max exit velocity of 113 MPH. Pair the phenomenal exit velocities with a consistent ability to drive the ball in the air and it’s easy to envision plus game power for Mayo.

 

He absolutely pulverizes fastballs, mashing to an OPS over 1.000 and has improved his OPS by more than 200 points against breaking balls this season. Mayo has also cut his chase rate to around 23%, helping him walk at a well above average clip.

It’s easy to understand why the O’s were willing to go well over slot for the teenager, his simple hitting mechanics follow suit with what the organization looks for, but he also has big power potential with his huge frame and athleticism.

Defense/Speed

Mayo moves well for his size and has a plus arm at third base. He has worked hard at his defense, improving his footwork and actions. Once viewed as a candidate to move off of the position, Mayo looks like he can be an average defender there. Though he is not much of a base stealer, Mayo is at least an average runner.

Outlook

A quick learner who is lauded for his makeup and work ethic, it is really impressive for Mayo to reach Triple-A within two seasons as a power hitting prep bat. While there will naturally be some whiff with a player of his profile, Mayo manages the swing and miss really well for a 6-foot-5 masher and walks plenty.

There’s big-time power to dream on with Mayo along with the approach and bat-to-ball skills that should allow him to get on base at a strong clip.

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Aram Leonard's @ Just Baseball's take on 3B prospect rankings.  Nothing earth-shattering.  #2 behind Junior Caminero.

Defense/Speed

Mayo moves well for his size and has a plus arm at third base. He has worked hard at his defense, improving his footwork and actions. Once viewed as a candidate to move off of the position, Mayo looks like he can be an average defender there. Though he is not much of a base stealer, Mayo is at least an average runner.

Just thought I'd highlight this part to those who have made their minds up that Mayo is not a third baseman. A masher at 3B is very valuable and while his bat is going to play at any position, it's a lot easier to find a RF or 1B than 3B with power. 

Th perfect upside infield for me:

3B: Mayo
SS: Henderson
2B: Holliday
1B: Basallo

That's a lot of offense and solid defense up the middle. Now this very well could be a 2025 or 2026 lineup since Basallo is at least a year or two away and Holliday probably needs at least another half a year. and maybe by the time Basallo is ready Mayo will need to be in RF, but I like this upside to this group here and think it would be a good offensive/defensive group.

Now is it the worse thing in the world if Mayo moves to RF? No, especially if Holliday can develop into a legitimate SS option defensively. 

Long term, Mayo may end up in RF and Henderson at 3B if Holliday can be the everyday SS, but I'd have no problem with Mayo being the starter at 3B coming out of spring training. 

[Just Regular]

Granted this is having fun with a counting stat, and some of that is inflated by Mayo getting to play 2023 with the accumulated talent pile Mike Elias is now working through trying to balance but my basic fact for Mayo entering 2024 is this.

In 2023 he put up the highest wRC of any Age 21 and younger Bat the last decade.

I do think there is a chance he is Opening Day Goldilocks as the Sigbot calculates that Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser just aren't that good, and Jackson Holliday's 7th year of Club control is more valuable than the possible prize of a full season Rookie of the Year bonus pick.     We're going to give Coby Mayo 675 PA and come at me Evan Carter.

The Cubs did not end up with much Year 7 value when they played that little game with Kris Bryant.

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Granted this is having fun with a counting stat, and some of that is inflated by Mayo getting to play 2023 with the accumulated talent pile Mike Elias is now working through trying to balance but my basic fact for Mayo entering 2024 is this.

In 2023 he put up the highest wRC of any Age 21 and younger Bat the last decade.

I do think there is a chance he is Opening Day Goldilocks as the Sigbot calculates that Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser just aren't that good, and Jackson Holliday's 7th year of Club control is more valuable than the possible prize of a full season Rookie of the Year bonus pick.     We're going to give Coby Mayo 675 PA and come at me Evan Carter.

The Cubs did not end up with much Year 7 value when they played that little game with Kris Bryant.

This may actually be the most "Just Regular" Just Regular post ever. @Frobby would be duly impressed! 

I think this is basically saying you are ok with Mayo being a starter this year and let it run it's due course. I agree.

Another reason to let him start the year as the opening day 3B is that he has needed some time to adjust to each level and the major leagues will probably be the same. As probably the only rookie hitter on the opening day roster, he should be given a little leeway to adjust. 

[now]

41 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Th perfect upside infield for me:

3B: Mayo
SS: Henderson
2B: Holliday
1B: Basallo

That's a lot of offense and solid defense up the middle. Now this very well could be a 2025 or 2026 lineup since Basallo is at least a year or two away and Holliday probably needs at least another half a year. and maybe by the time Basallo is ready Mayo will need to be in RF, but I like this upside to this group here and think it would be a good offensive/defensive group.

Now is it the worse thing in the world if Mayo moves to RF? No, especially if Holliday can develop into a legitimate SS option defensively. 

Long term, Mayo may end up in RF and Henderson at 3B if Holliday can be the everyday SS, but I'd have no problem with Mayo being the starter at 3B coming out of spring training. 

Easy to love your dream infield. So where does that leave your dream outfield 2025-26? Cowser-Bradfield-Kjerstad?