Jackson Holliday 2024

[Just Regular]

Update from ESPN Kiley McDaniel on how little brother Ethan has been evolving near the eve of his 12th grade year.     Can Stillwater High just loan him to the Norfolk Tides in August?    Ethan overall rated #2 in McDaniel's very early 2025 rankings guesses, 45+ FV tier.

I just watched Ethan to update that report. He can play a solid third base but isn't a shortstop, and his hit tool has continued to progress, so I think he's still the top prep player in the class. Rather than comparing him to his brother, I think he's more like a third-base version of Bryce Rainer from the 2023 class. Holliday has a pretty lefty swing with power, and I'm pretty sure (but not positive) he'll hit, while fitting in the infield. I'd have Holliday just behind Rainer because Rainer is a shortstop and Holliday is a third baseman -- but Holliday has a year to improve on that grade and is younger relative to his draft class than Rainer, which teams really value.

Prep prospects who can't play up the middle have to leave zero doubt about their hit/power combo, so that's the bar Holliday has to clear. Walker Jenkins was able to pull this off in the 2023 class and was in a similar spot at this stage, so it can be done.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

44 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Update from ESPN Kiley McDaniel on how little brother Ethan has been evolving near the eve of his 12th grade year.     Can Stillwater High just loan him to the Norfolk Tides in August?    Ethan overall rated #2 in McDaniel's very early 2025 rankings guesses, 45+ FV tier.

I just watched Ethan to update that report. He can play a solid third base but isn't a shortstop, and his hit tool has continued to progress, so I think he's still the top prep player in the class. Rather than comparing him to his brother, I think he's more like a third-base version of Bryce Rainer from the 2023 class. Holliday has a pretty lefty swing with power, and I'm pretty sure (but not positive) he'll hit, while fitting in the infield. I'd have Holliday just behind Rainer because Rainer is a shortstop and Holliday is a third baseman -- but Holliday has a year to improve on that grade and is younger relative to his draft class than Rainer, which teams really value.

Prep prospects who can't play up the middle have to leave zero doubt about their hit/power combo, so that's the bar Holliday has to clear. Walker Jenkins was able to pull this off in the 2023 class and was in a similar spot at this stage, so it can be done.

 

It would not shock me to see Ethan go to College. I think his father is still involved with OSU and he's committed there verbally. I would argue that he is a bit young to pigeon hole him into 3B only. Here's what Perfect Game USA had to say about him, " Primary third baseman on defense, has easy athletic actions and moves very well given his large frame, makes accurate throws on the move and changes his arm slot easily. Advanced athlete who is just going to keep getting better as he matures physically." So why can't he make the transition to SS in College? I have not seen him play but he sounds like an elite athlete on both sides of the ball. With high level college coaching is he the second coming of Corey Seager?

[The Goob]

14 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At worst, Mayo has 5 more weeks in the minors. We’ll have a 28 man roster in September. 

Next year we have Santander as a FA. Tough arb decisions on Hays, Mounty, and Mullins. Urias could be gone. Either way, Mayo will be an everyday bat next year. We will need him this year. Just gotta wait til September. 

Anyone know off hand what the cut off date to be on the roster is to be eligible for the playoffs?  I thought it was prior to the September roster expansion.  If that is the case I think Mayo and Holliday both need to be up prior to that for sure and I think they should both be up now (assuming that Holliday's elbow is fine) so that they two month to be somewhat adjusted to ML pitching before the playoffs.  I have a feeling that Elias and the Orioles brass have left them down at this point to allow them to continue to punish AAA pitching on the small chance they put together an offer that includes one of them.  I would not be surprised to see them both up after the trade deadline.

Edited July 23 by The Goob

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

It would not shock me to see Ethan go to College. I think his father is still involved with OSU and he's committed there verbally. I would argue that he is a bit young to pigeon hole him into 3B only. Here's what Perfect Game USA had to say about him, " Primary third baseman on defense, has easy athletic actions and moves very well given his large frame, makes accurate throws on the move and changes his arm slot easily. Advanced athlete who is just going to keep getting better as he matures physically." So why can't he make the transition to SS in College? I have not seen him play but he sounds like an elite athlete on both sides of the ball. With high level college coaching is he the second coming of Corey Seager?

I’d say there are a few reasons for not going to college:

1. The time value of money 

2. Faster route to FA

3. Better coaching in MiLB

I’d be surprised if he turned down a round 1 pick to head to college.  

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

It would not shock me to see Ethan go to College. I think his father is still involved with OSU and he's committed there verbally. I would argue that he is a bit young to pigeon hole him into 3B only. Here's what Perfect Game USA had to say about him, " Primary third baseman on defense, has easy athletic actions and moves very well given his large frame, makes accurate throws on the move and changes his arm slot easily. Advanced athlete who is just going to keep getting better as he matures physically." So why can't he make the transition to SS in College? I have not seen him play but he sounds like an elite athlete on both sides of the ball. With high level college coaching is he the second coming of Corey Seager?

A lot of scouting reports say “he might have to move to 2B or 3B eventually”.   This one seemed a little more definitive.   

[emmett16]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A lot of scouting reports say “he might have to move to 2B or 3B eventually”.   This one seemed a little more definitive.   

He’s 6’4 210 and just turned 17.  He’s not done growing by a long shot. 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

28 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’d say there are a few reasons for not going to college:

1. The time value of money 

2. Faster route to FA

3. Better coaching in MiLB

I’d be surprised if he turned down a round 1 pick to head to college.  

I cannot argue with any of these points. Which was why I prefaced my comments with "It would not shock me..." I'm implying that, for all of the reasons you point out (and more), he probably goes directly to pro ball. But if he (and his father) wants to be a SS and reap the rewards that playing up the middle brings to a guy who can hit like he can, it's unlikely he makes that transition in pro ball. How many recent HS 3B prospects have been transition to SS in pro ball? I can't name one. Maybe I'm overthinking this issue. 

Edited July 23 by Jim'sKid26
auto correct error

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

He’s 6’4 210 and just turned 17.  He’s not done growing by a long shot. 

 

I was 5'10" by 12 and only grew another half inch. 

Bodies mature at different rates.

 

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was 5'10" by 12 and only grew another half inch. 

Bodies mature at different rates.

 

Correct.  And typically very similar, if not slightly bigger, than our parents.  His dad was 6’4” 240 when playing.  I think it’s safe to say he adds significantly to his frame.  I’d be shocked if he didn’t.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Correct.  And typically very similar, if not slightly bigger, than our parents.  His dad was 6’4” 240 when playing.  I think it’s safe to say he adds significantly to his frame.  I’d be shocked if he didn’t.  

A lot of frame is choice.  If he wants to play SS it might behoove him to stay on the leaner side.

I do think he puts on mass if he ends up on a corner.

[CaptainRedbeard]

14 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At worst, Mayo has 5 more weeks in the minors. We’ll have a 28 man roster in September. 

Next year we have Santander as a FA. Tough arb decisions on Hays, Mounty, and Mullins. Urias could be gone. Either way, Mayo will be an everyday bat next year. We will need him this year. Just gotta wait til September. 

At a minimum, Mayo will definitely have a role as the DH vs LHP for September/playoffs. Adley won’t be DHing in the playoffs. The bigger question is - against RHP, are the Orioles better off with Mayo at 3B and Westburg at 2B instead of Mateo? Or Holliday at 2B instead of Mateo?

However you look at it, I think the best version of this team for the playoffs this year does not have Mateo at 2B vs RHP. Which means they either need to clear a roster spot in addition to the Sept 1 additional roster spot to get Mayo and Holliday, or decide Mayo OR Holliday, or take both on September 1 and not have the extra pitcher. 

If the Orioles believe in Mayo’s defense at 3B for this year and going forward as the backup 3B, I think it’s obvious Urias has to go at the deadline. But if not, or they just want to keep Urias in the interest of depth if there’s a injury, they might just have both Holliday and Mayo be the September callups with no extra pitcher and figure it out in the offseason. 

[OriolesMagic83]

17 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I cannot argue with any of these points. Which was why I prefaced my comments with "It would not shock me..." I'm implying that, for all of the reasons you point out (and more), he probably goes directly to pro ball. But if he (and his father) wants to be a SS and reap the rewards that playing up the middle brings to a guy who can hit like he can, it's unlikely he makes that transition in pro ball. How many recent HS 3B prospects have been transition to SS in pro ball? I can't name one. Maybe I'm overthinking this issue. 

Multi All Star 3B guys do ok too.  Just ask Manny.

[emmett16]

10 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I cannot argue with any of these points. Which was why I prefaced my comments with "It would not shock me..." I'm implying that, for all of the reasons you point out (and more), he probably goes directly to pro ball. But if he (and his father) wants to be a SS and reap the rewards that playing up the middle brings to a guy who can hit like he can, it's unlikely he makes that transition in pro ball. How many recent HS 3B prospects have been transition to SS in pro ball? I can't name one. Maybe I'm overthinking this issue. 

I can’t think of anyone.  Maybe that’s a negotiating point with teams that are interested in drafting him.  It will be interesting to see how he trains/prepares this year.  It almost sounds like the transition to 3B has taken places. I think he mostly played 3B this summer. He’s not a burner like his brother, looks like his 60 is right around 6.9/7.  From what I can see he stole 1 base on the PG tournament circuit this year.  Baseball in that family runs deep so I’m sure they have a good tell on what’s best for him.  His uncle, Josh Holliday, is the head coach and was a C/1B at OSU and in Blue Jays org.  His uncle took over as head Coach when his grandfather, Tom, retired.  

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, The Goob said:

Jackson Holliday will not be 21 until after the season.  His number in AAA for the year:

• .280 batting average
• .448 OBP with 74 walks versus 69 strikeouts
• .500 SLG with 34 extra base hits in 246 ABs, 1 every 7.24 ABs, Gunnar is at 1 every 8.5 ABs this year
• He has scored 73 runs in 67 games
• In July he has a .333/.492/.689/1.181 slash line
• His career OPS is .941

Gunnar's OPS at Norfolk was .894 at age 21 before he was called up.  Adley's OPS at Norfolk was .819 at age 24 before he was called up.  Anyone even considering trading this kid is out of their minds and way overvaluing 34 at bats.

He will be the second baseman as soon as they are sure his elbow is fine.

I think Holliday is going to be an excellent player. I don't want to trade him. However, I would consider trading him for Skubel because Skubel brings something this teams needs now and will need over the next two years when he's team controlled. 

It has NOTHING to do with his 34 plate appearances. That gets overused as an excuse as to why people would be willing to trade him. 

What team is better this year? The one with Skubel in the rotation starting game 2 or 3 in the playoffs with Mayo at 3B and Westburg at 2B. Or the one with Kremer starting game three with Westburg at 3B and Holliday at 2b? I'll take the team with Skubel.

I'm only trading Holliday for young controllable ace because it fits a bigger need. It does not mean I don't like Holliday as a player. I just realize you have to give up something special to get something special. 

The real question is in what order are your willing give up of the Big-3 or IF you are willing to move one of the big-3? I'll be honest, I think Basallo is going to be a special hitter and I KNOW Mayo is going to be one. I think Holliday is going to be a Adley Rutschman type hitter more than a Gunnar type because he's not as physical as Gunnar. 

So the question is what can you do without? If the team sees both Basallo and Mayo as first baseman, then you move one of them since they become redundant. If they think Mayo will be fine at 3B, then Westburg moves to 2B which means Holliday becomes redundant unless he moves to CF. 

No one should be off limits for a young controllable ace, but clearly there are layers to this due to how they access the eventual defensive home of Mayo and Basallo.

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I cannot argue with any of these points. Which was why I prefaced my comments with "It would not shock me..." I'm implying that, for all of the reasons you point out (and more), he probably goes directly to pro ball. But if he (and his father) wants to be a SS and reap the rewards that playing up the middle brings to a guy who can hit like he can, it's unlikely he makes that transition in pro ball. How many recent HS 3B prospects have been transition to SS in pro ball? I can't name one. Maybe I'm overthinking this issue. 

Aidan Miller.  He’s played only SS in the Phillies minor league system.  Here’s the BA draft write up.

 

”Miller wasn’t able to add much to that resume this spring, as he dealt with a hamate injury and missed a significant amount of game time. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound third baseman has average defensive ability at the hot corner, with a plus arm that could be an asset at the position. He’s played the outfield corners at times and could profile there given his offensive upside if the game speeds up on him too much at the next level.”