Cade Povich 2024

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Last night was about keeping the team in the game and he did.

I don't know how the Umpire Scorecard overall results will be, but the fortunate call to end a brutal inning was a life preserver.

Seeing a few games reinforces him as a Kyle Gibson tribe member.     He'll live around the edges on his good nights.

Next game Cleveland at OPACY odds may favor attacking the strike zone more.

It was posted last night at pinstripe Alley. There were 11 missed calls that favored the Yankees, and three missed calls that favored the Orioles.
I agree with the comment that a wild pitcher won’t get the close calls, but I wonder if Povich is good enough that management might just accept that sometimes he’s going to be wild and plan accordingly? 
I don’t think that’s workable, but it’s definitely easier and cheap.
If he cannot control his stuff, he’s not going to be a worthwhile pitcher despite his raw talent. 

 

[Philip]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

What does "physics" represent?  Spin/movement I assume.  Velo?

Interesting site, thank you for sharing. it didn’t say anything about the quality of contact(and I don’t know where to find that)

He did only give up one hit, but how much hard contact did he give up that was neutralized by the defense?

Nolan Ryan walked everybody in sight and was still successful, so maybe it’s possible to work with these flaws to make Cade successful despite them?

And if they can determine that he has a particularly bad pitch, maybe he could just stop throwing that pitch? I don’t know how many pitches he has in his repertoire, but like the cat in the Fable who only had one, but it always worked, that might work for Cade as well.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

That is pretty crazy. It was such an extreme game for him with only 4 whifs, 5 BBs, 1 hit and i earned run allowed in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 93% zcontact rate and only allowed one hit. That's pretty nuts. 

The good news is Povich found a way to navigate the Yankees (minus Judge thankfully) lineup with very little command of anything. It's clear batters don't pick him up well and when he's able to command, he's going to have some great days on the mound.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, theobird said:

I had the opposite reaction. I thought it was a very gutty performance from a kid who obviously did not have his best going for him. Thats going to happen, but for him to hang in there and tough it out was very impressive to me. 

With Means and Bradish out, we had all better hope that Cade Povich just builds on this and continues to improve. Because let’s face it, this is a very good baseball team, whose WS aspirations have taken a major hit with the losses of the above mentioned and Wells.

This is how I looked at this performance. He pitched on the biggest stage of his career and without his best command, found a way to keep his team in the game and almost get through 5 innings. I felt it was a gutty performance. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

What does "physics" represent?  Spin/movement I assume.  Velo?

Yeah, I don't understand that at all. I get most of it, but not sure I understand the grade for "physics". Plus, what's the difference between one luck clover and three? 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

I think Povich has the success that he has because there aren't a lot of guys like him anymore.  The velocity differences between his pitches seem to really screw with hitters and their ability to square him up.  We will see if he can keep it up.

He changes speeds well and throws to all quadrants of the zone with five pitches. He may not get them in the strike zone as much as we'd like, but he keeps batters clearly off balanced.

[emmett16]

My takeaways:

1. He showed incredible poise and confidence and battled against the best offense in baseball.

2. He did have some uncompetitive pitches, but he had a ton of very very close calls where he just missed.

3. It was obvious the Yankees game plan was to take and make him throw strikes, they took a ton of very very close pitches.  

4. It was a bit frustrating and stressful to watch, but I was very impressed by how he handled himself.

5. He made Soto WHIFF on three FBs, how often does that happen?

6. He throws his pitches to all over....in, out, up, and down.  Looks like he's trying to be absolutely perfect.

7.  I was impressed with the outing.  Very gutsy. 

[btdart20]

24 minutes ago, Philip said:

Interesting site, thank you for sharing. it didn’t say anything about the quality of contact(and I don’t know where to find that)

He did only give up one hit, but how much hard contact did he give up that was neutralized by the defense?

Nolan Ryan walked everybody in sight and was still successful, so maybe it’s possible to work with these flaws to make Cade successful despite them?

And if they can determine that he has a particularly bad pitch, maybe he could just stop throwing that pitch? I don’t know how many pitches he has in his repertoire, but like the cat in the Fable who only had one, but it always worked, that might work for Cade as well.

In fairness, @Malikeshared the link originally.  It's an interesting dashboard for sure.  

Povich has a good mix.  I wouldn’t be shocked if this type of 'on edge' game is fairly normal for him.  Meaning, he doesn't seem to give in to hitters and is willing to try to nibble.  With a low 90s FB, he needs that mentality.  The command and landing the CB is still a question.  Not the prettiest, but big props to him @ NYY!

[btdart20]

31 minutes ago, Philip said:

Interesting site, thank you for sharing. it didn’t say anything about the quality of contact(and I don’t know where to find that)

He did only give up one hit, but how much hard contact did he give up that was neutralized by the defense?

Nolan Ryan walked everybody in sight and was still successful, so maybe it’s possible to work with these flaws to make Cade successful despite them?

And if they can determine that he has a particularly bad pitch, maybe he could just stop throwing that pitch? I don’t know how many pitches he has in his repertoire, but like the cat in the Fable who only had one, but it always worked, that might work for Cade as well.

Quality of contact (is generally) measured in stats.  EV, LA are part of the "expected" stats.  HH% and Barrel% are good measures of quality contact as well.  IFFB and GB are old school but add value.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cade-povich-700249?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, now said:

Right, like who was it (Morton, McCullers??) that threw like 26 straight curves in the World Series a few years back? With good results. Just need some more of that elusive control/command to go along with the stuff!

Lance McCullers 4-inning save in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS over the Yankees.

It was a 4-0 score the whole time so the experimental tactic did have some breathing room.

Certainly that one instance is part of my general feeling Craig Kimbrel isn't going to be allowed to do anything too important very late this season.    He does seem in okay shape to hang in as one of the best 8-9 pitchers the club may have period, and that's all teams really use in October outside blowouts.

[btdart20]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Quality of contact (is generally) measured in stats.

Xstats 

[Malike]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

What does "physics" represent?  Spin/movement I assume.  Velo?

I'm sort of guessing but I was looking around the site and this is as close as I could come to an explanation of physics, possibly... It talks about release point and movement consistency.

The Pitch Model plays an important role in determining the repeatability of a pitcher's outcomes based on how effective his pitches appear.

[G54377]

I'm guessing things will even out and he'll have (more) pitches hit hard, but also get some more swing and miss and K's in general. The obvious question is which way it slants. Does he get enough swing and miss when hitters eventually do hit him harder? Or limit the walks anyway?

[Malike]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, I don't understand that at all. I get most of it, but not sure I understand the grade for "physics". Plus, what's the difference between one luck clover and three? 

Luck is based on pitch location and results from what I've found. If a pitcher was neutral it shows a scale and not a clover. The shade of green changes from light to dark the better any category is or the luckier the pitcher was. I don't have a membership to the site but was cruising their FAQ on the models. I assume some of the foul balls (there were a ton) were pitches that were pretty fat and thus lucky, but I'm not paying 10 bucks a month to find out for sure lol.

Edited June 20 by Malike

[Billy F-Face3]

So when Dean Kremer comes back, do we option Povich or do we DFA/option a relief pitcher and move Suarez into the bullpen?

Should Cade Povich stay in the rotation the rest of the season and continue his development?

This seems like a challenging decision to make. Hassle free option on a good developing young pitcher risking slowing down his MLB development, or risk losing a reliever to waivers.