Skubal trade..Kjerstad, Mountcastle, McDermott and Bradfield?

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Malike said:

Kjerstad doesn't get you Skubal. Mayo and Kjerstad and a couple of more real prospects get you Skubal.

I don't agree. Who else can/will offer them that?

The value proposition doesn't add up in terms of projectable WAR + years of control + the probability of pitching injuries.

I agree with the part that it may require a prospect on the level of Mayo. But no way both Mayo and Kjerstad PLUS "more real prospects". White Sox didn't get anything like that for Cease (similar control left on contract). Drew Thorpe (the highest regarded prospect moved), was at the back end of most top 100 prospect lists. And no other top 100's were included.

[Malike]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

I don't agree. Who else can/will offer them that?

The value proposition doesn't add up in terms of projectable WAR + years of control + the probability of pitching injuries.

I agree with the part that it may require a prospect on the level of Mayo. But no way both Mayo and Kjerstad PLUS "more real prospects". White Sox didn't get anything like that for Cease (similar control left on contract). Drew Thorpe (the highest regarded prospect moved), was at the back end of most top 100 prospect lists. And no other top 100's were included.

You are not getting the best pitcher in the AL with 2.5 years of control for Kjerstad. You just aren't. Plenty of teams could beat that deal, I doubt any of them would because the Tigers are not trading Skubal unless a GM makes a fireable offense and does a crazy overpay.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Malike said:

You are not getting the best pitcher in the AL with 2.5 years of control for Kjerstad. You just aren't. Plenty of teams could beat that deal, I doubt any of them would because the Tigers are not trading Skubal unless a GM makes a fireable offense and does a crazy overpay.

I acknowledged that it might cost Mayo.

You said Mayo and Kjerstad plus more prospects.

I asked you if you were willing to name any team that could/would offer such a package?

Why is trading Skubal “a fireable offense”? The Tigers haven’t been to the playoffs with him and are not going anywhere this year. When you examine their offense and position players that they currently have, it is hard to envision how they make drastic improvements next year or the year after (Skubal’s contract duration).

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I acknowledged that it might cost Mayo.

You said Mayo and Kjerstad plus more prospects.

I asked you if you were willing to name any team that could/would offer such a package?

Why is trading Skubal “a fireable offense”? The Tigers haven’t been to the playoffs with him and are not going anywhere this year. When you examine their offense and position players that they currently have, it is hard to envision how they make drastic improvements next year or the year after (Skubal’s contract duration).

Yes, and for the Tigers to trade Skubal I'll maintain that position. They have a top 5 farm system as it is, they are free from the bad contracts they had and they have spent plenty in the past. They are hovering around .500, they are not rebuilding.

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

You are not getting the best pitcher in the AL with 2.5 years of control for Kjerstad. You just aren't. Plenty of teams could beat that deal, I doubt any of them would because the Tigers are not trading Skubal unless a GM makes a fireable offense and does a crazy overpay.

They would be foolish not to trade him. They are a below .500 club even with a crazy year from Flaherty. They need a lot more bodies.  Trade the guy when he is at the height of his value and turn him into 3-4 cheaper players.   That said, you guys want to give up too much for him. He has been really good for basically a calendar year.  People here are treating him like he is prime Chris Sale. 
 

 

[G54377]

One of the keys here is that the Tigers don't need to trade Skubal. You can make a good argument to do it, but it's not necessary, and not necessary at the deadline. If I'm the Tigers I'm not settling for Kjerstad+. A good GM wouldn't. I'd bet Elias looks to do that trade in the offseason, similar to when he traded for Cole in Houston.

[24fps]

I voted yes.  I suspect a package without one of Holliday, Mayo or Basallo probably wouldn't be accepted though.  I would love to make the fourth piece a pitcher farther away from contributing at the ML level than McDermott is.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Malike said:

Yes, and for the Tigers to trade Skubal I'll maintain that position. They have a top 5 farm system as it is, they are free from the bad contracts they had and they have spent plenty in the past. They are hovering around .500, they are not rebuilding.

All of their top position player prospects are at single A. 

Speaking of contracts is Javier Baez no longer on their books?

As far as the standings go, they are about 15 games out of first and about 9/10 from the Wild Card. They are in no way close to qualifying for a Wild Card birth this season.

[Malike]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

They would be foolish not to trade him. They are a below .500 club even with a crazy year from Flaherty. They need a lot more bodies.  Trade the guy when he is at the height of his value and turn him into 3-4 cheaper players.   That said, you guys want to give up too much for him. He has been really good for basically a calendar year.  People here are treating him like he is prime Chris Sale. 
 

 

In other words, they are crazy not to sell the best pitcher in the AL who has been good for the past 2 years but they should take nothing but warm bodies for him? Got it.

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, G54377 said:

One of the keys here is that the Tigers don't need to trade Skubal. You can make a good argument to do it, but it's not necessary, and not necessary at the deadline. If I'm the Tigers I'm not settling for Kjerstad+. A good GM wouldn't. I'd bet Elias looks to do that trade in the offseason, similar to when he traded for Cole in Houston.

Agree that it will probably require a Mayo or a Basallo. 

But I don’t believe that it would necessarily be the wisest course for them to wait. He is healthy now. The longer you wait the more that reality could change. And IMO they absolutely need to maximize the return they receive for his value.

IMO they are not close to winning with what they have (especially not during the duration of the years of control that they have left with Skubal). 

[baltfan]

11 minutes ago, Malike said:

In other words, they are crazy not to sell the best pitcher in the AL who has been good for the past 2 years but they should take nothing but warm bodies for him? Got it.

Who said take warm bodies?  I agree with you someone will pay up. But they had the second best farm system in 2021 and it hasn’t worked out so great for them.  There are no guarantees.  Colt Keith is still young but he has not panned out as they would have thought. Torkelson is a mess.  
 

And he hasn’t been good the past two years.  He has pitched in 32 games since last year. That is basically a year.  He hasn’t proven he can sustain it over the course of a full season.  I like him. I think he is really good.  But he has to prove he is durable which is a big deal for pitchers.  

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Malike said:

Yes, and for the Tigers to trade Skubal I'll maintain that position. They have a top 5 farm system as it is, they are free from the bad contracts they had and they have spent plenty in the past. They are hovering around .500, they are not rebuilding.

Who says they have a top 5 farm system?   The same people who think a 74-win pace is “hovering around .500?”  

(Yes, I know MLB Pipeline had them 5th.)

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Who says they have a top 5 farm system?   The same people who think a 74-win pace is “hovering around .500?”  

(Yes, I know MLB Pipeline had them 5th.)

I mean, if we're going to send Kjerstad and Mountcastle they'd have to send back Riley Greene or it's a no from me.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You would pass on that package for Skubal because of McDermott?    Either you think he can be a #2 or #3 pitcher pretty quickly or I don’t know.

Not anytime real soon, no. I explained it, how I think his live stuff can be an asset in relief this year. Especially if we sustain more injuries. I don’t see it as wise to trade from an area we do not have much depth in. Trade arms from Bowie or below. 

[emmett16]

6 hours ago, Malike said:

You wouldn't have to worry about passing, the Tigers wouldn't even take the phonecall lol.

I’m not good at the trade proposal/player value thing.  I should stick to my lane  

I tend to agree they wouldn’t like that deal.  It doesn’t seem like we are a good fit.