Trade Proposal: Fedde & Kopech for Norby & Beavers

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I mean, it’s a really bad proposal for both Crochet & Robert.

And yes, I think the guy who put up 4.9 fWAR last year is a star.

Did you guys not learn with Cease that players with one really good year won’t bring you the return you think they should?  Did you not learn that lesson?

And unlike Cease, Robert has a huge availability issue, he’s not very reliable and judging by the play the other day, he’s also either dumb or lazy(at least at times).

I would trade for him but the time to trade him was in the offseason, when I told you guys you should. Now his value is down..a lot. 

Edited July 7 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

Scherzer #1.5

Kikuchi #2 

Fedde #2.5 

Severino #3.5

Crochet, Webb, Skubal #1

Our guys… Burnes #1, Grayson #2, Suarez #3.5, Kremer #4, Povich/Irvin #5.5

Thoughts?  Trying to be fair.  

 

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Crochet has injury concerns…can’t pitch 80-100 innings in a playoff run. But you know that and would be saying it or the White Sox were the team buying.

Robert was good last year , but injured and got out of the gate poorly. 
 

You think it’s a bad deal because you’re a Sox fan. 

If Crochet had a longer track record and zero concerns regarding an innings limit this year, we’d be looking for a Juan Soto type package.  That being said, you aren’t getting a guy with elite stuff who currently leads all pitchers in fWAR and comes with two more years of low cost control on the cheap either.  And your proposal is very much lacking after Basallo if you think it’s going to get you two star players.  To me, a solid middle ground for Crochet only would be one of Basallo or Mayo, Beavers, and then one of your better arms like McDermott.  Yes, there would be some risk, but the upside for you guys would be incredible.

[CaptainRedbeard]

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just out of curiosity, but which pitchers do you guys like who will actually be available?  Last I checked Crochet was #1 in fWAR and Fedde was #15 (neck & neck with Burnes) and yet half this board wants nothing to with either of them.  Interested in who these high end pitchers are who have question marks and will come at reasonable prices.

I think almost every Orioles fan is interested in Crochet but most do not think he is worth Holliday, Mayo or Basallo. 2.5 years of control for a guy who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year is very valuable, but the huge injury question mark and the workload concern about whether he can even start in the playoffs this year (let alone down the stretch in the regular season) erodes that value immensely.

Fedde is interesting and has pitched very well to date this season but it’s hard to have much confidence that his performance won’t back up to more in line with his entire career of work prior to this season. Adding the sweeper has clearly taken him to another level, but overall his stuff is still below average and he relies on controlling contact quality, which is often not very stable and it’s still a small sample of him pitching at this level in the MLB.

There initially were not many other clearly available SP at the deadline, except for Flaherty, who the Orioles probably won’t want to go round 2 with since it didn’t work out last year. So you’re almost correct that there’s limited options beyond the White Sox SPs. However, it’s now looking like the Rangers, Blue Jays and Rays will be sellers with a number of rental or 1.5 year SPs, which will considerably buffer the supply at the deadline. Even if the Blue Jays and Rays don’t want to trade in-division (and the Rays do often trade in-division, and did with the Orioles in 2022), it’s now looking like there will be a lot more SP available from sellers to meet the demand at the deadline.

Crochet is a unique situation since he’s probably the only real ace available at the deadline, but the Orioles would need to build their package around Kjerstad. And they could easily say they’d rather pay a cheaper price from the middle of their farm system to get a rental or 1.5 year guy (like Scherzer, Eovaldi, Heaney, Kikuchi, Bassit, Gausman, Eflin or Littell) to start game 3/4 this year to be able to hang onto Kjerstad.

A big factor that’s also a complete unknown to fans is how much the new ownership group is willing to spend. If it’s going to be more of the same, then Crochet’s 2.5 cheap years are much more appealing. But if they are planning to spend this offseason to bring in one or more free agent SPs, then going for a cheaper rental at the deadline and holding onto some prospects could be a better route. 

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh boy.

First of all, you know the issues with crochet and none of them have anything to do with talent.  Don’t be naive and act like you don’t get that.

Fedde has been nothing until this year. Is it a first half mirage or more than that? We don’t know. Maybe the sweeper he picked up in the KBO is a true game changer and will change him long term or maybe people just haven’t seen him and they will adjust and his lack of missed bats and Ks will start to catch up to him.

Fedde can be an option but he should be way down the list imo. If other options aren’t there, Fedde can be revisited. Until then, he should be on the back burner and if we lose him because of that, so be it..no real loss.

But that’s my point, who are all these flawless options?  By no means do you have to trade for our guys, but it’s not a stellar group of starting pitchers.  You’ll likely take on some risk with whomever you acquire.  I don’t like taking specific comments and then generalizing the whole board, but there is quite a bit of nitpicking going on from a large group of posters on almost all the SP options not named Skubal as well as some overvaluing of your lesser prospects who are unlikely to get something of value.  Getting an impactful SP in this market is going to hurt one way or the other, you just have to decide what trade offs are you willing to take.

I do appreciate your viewpoints because you seem capable of saying something might be fair in terms of value, but at the same time not be a trade you’d actually make.  Personally, I think Crochet would be a massive coup for you guys at the price I just mentioned, but I can respect if you feel he’s too risky.  I’m not sure there will another SP like him available in terms of potential impact and now is the time you guys should really be going for it.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But that’s my point, who are all these flawless options?  By no means do you have to trade for our guys, but it’s not a stellar group of starting pitchers.  You’ll likely take on some risk with whomever you acquire.  I don’t like taking specific comments and then generalizing the whole board, but there is quite a bit of nitpicking going on from a large group of posters on almost all the SP options not named Skubal as well as some overvaluing of your lesser prospects who are unlikely to get something of value.  Getting an impactful SP in this market is going to hurt one way or the other, you just have to decide what trade offs are you willing to take.

I do appreciate your viewpoints because you seem capable of saying something might be fair in terms of value, but at the same time not be a trade you’d actually make.  Personally, I think Crochet would be a massive coup for you guys at the price I just mentioned, but I can respect if you feel he’s too risky.  I’m not sure there will another SP like him available in terms of potential impact and now is the time you guys should really be going for it.

 I wouldn’t trade Basallo or Mayo straight up for Crochet. We need a starter and Crochet may not be a starter the rest of the year and this work load could affect his arm next year as well. He’s just too much of a risk and may not help us win this year. 

If we could use Kjerstad to headline a deal, I would think something could be worked out.  Personally, I doubt crochet is traded. Getz is going to overvalue him and teams aren’t going to part with a top 20 guy and a top 50 guy plus more.  It’s just not happening, as I said it wouldn’t for Cease.

As for other pitchers, some of the Texas guys are certainly possible. Miami has some intriguing options potentially. I’m a Detmers guy, although he’s a bit of a project.(maybe big BP help this year)

I am also more about improving the pen first.

End of the day, do I want Fedde starting game 3 of a playoff series?  As of today, I’m not sure I do so I don’t want to trade assets for that guy.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Did you guys not learn with Cease that players with one really good year won’t bring you the return you think they should?  Did you not learn that lesson?

And unlike Cease, Robert has a huge availability issue, he’s not very reliable and judging by the play the other day, he’s also either dumb or lazy(at least at times).

I would trade for him but the time to trade him was in the offseason, when I told you guys you should. Now his value is down..a lot. 

Robert is hitting at the same level as he did last year.  His defensive metrics are down so far this year due to injury and a lack of motivation playing for one of the worst teams in baseball history, but he will be the same plus defender moving forward.  IMO, he is a legit ~5 win player when healthy and most (not all) of his injuries have been of the flukey kind.

Whether or not we should have traded him in the offseason is irrelevant to the point he’s worth a lot more than Rolle Tide’s proposal implicitly assumes.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Fedde is currently a 4 WAR pitcher this season …. But carry on

I hope he keeps that up for his sake and he is able to capitalize on it and get paid in the offseason.

IMO this is an outlier season for a pitcher who is aged 31 and has not had a career 4.0 WAR coming into this season. Who knows if/when he will turn back into a pumpkin? I would prefer not to bet on him continuing to be a pitcher that he has NEVER been before in his ENTIRE career.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 I wouldn’t trade Basallo or Mayo straight up for Crochet. We need a starter and Crochet may not be a starter the rest of the year and this work load could affect his arm next year as well. He’s just too much of a risk and may not help us win this year. 

If we could use Kjerstad to headline a deal, I would think something could be worked out.  Personally, I doubt crochet is traded. Getz is going to overvalue him and teams aren’t going to part with a top 20 guy and a top 50 guy plus more.  It’s just not happening, as I said it wouldn’t for Cease.

As for other pitchers, some of the Texas guys are certainly possible. Miami has some intriguing options potentially. I’m a Detmers guy, although he’s a bit of a project.(maybe big BP help this year)

I am also more about improving the pen first.

End of the day, do I want Fedde starting game 3 of a playoff series?  As of today, I’m not sure I do so I don’t want to trade assets for that guy.

I guess we will have to wait and see what he returns then.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Robert is hitting at the same level as he did last year.  His defensive metrics are down so far this year due to injury and a lack of motivation playing for one of the worst teams in baseball history, but he will be the same plus defender moving forward.  IMO, he is a legit ~5 win player when healthy and most (not all) of his injuries have been of the flukey kind.

Whether or not we should have traded him in the offseason is irrelevant to the point he’s worth a lot more than Rolle Tide’s proposal implicitly assumes.

“When healthy”…those words are why he’s not worth what you guys think they do. Judging by the “intelligence” on your site, I’m guessing most think he’s worth a top 20 guy, a top 75 guy and more.

 

BTW, his OPs is almost 60 points lower this year. His wOBA is down, his wRC+ is down and he is worth .9 fWAR so far this year.  I’m actually one of the few on here who would go after him but the value for him is 100% down from what it was in the offseason.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

My point is that @Bemorewins  wouldn’t be.   He thinks we need to aim higher than Fedde.   I have a hard time believing he’d be ok with Fedde + Severino as our only moves at starter.   

I think those two would be fine in order to get us through the regular season. My concern recently is at least one time through the rotation the last 4 times, we have had at least one blow up start thus taxing our bullpen.

Those two would be fine in order to provide a much higher floor than some of our last three starters.

However, I don't really think either does that much for us when the leaves change and the calender turns to October. If we are in an elimination game and either is on the mound against one of Seattle's starters, I think they would have the advantage. (Not that Seattle is a shoo-in for the playoffs.) But Philly and the Dodgers are most likely to get to the Series (which of course is no guarantee). And if we were to face either one, I don't like our chances against their top 3 with Fedde and/or Severino on the mound.

Plus, I think we need protection at the top of the rotation in the instance that Burnes is to leave after this season. I'm not sure Grayson plus the rest of the non-Burnes guys that we have is even a rotation that qualifies for a playoff birth let alone wins a World Series.

A lot of posters are clinging to our the stat that points to our team ERA being 5th in MLB. But if you like at how much it spiked in June and how high it is so far in July, it is clear that it is really going in the wrong direction.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But that’s my point, who are all these flawless options?  By no means do you have to trade for our guys, but it’s not a stellar group of starting pitchers.  You’ll likely take on some risk with whomever you acquire.  I don’t like taking specific comments and then generalizing the whole board, but there is quite a bit of nitpicking going on from a large group of posters on almost all the SP options not named Skubal as well as some overvaluing of your lesser prospects who are unlikely to get something of value.  Getting an impactful SP in this market is going to hurt one way or the other, you just have to decide what trade offs are you willing to take.

I do appreciate your viewpoints because you seem capable of saying something might be fair in terms of value, but at the same time not be a trade you’d actually make.  Personally, I think Crochet would be a massive coup for you guys at the price I just mentioned, but I can respect if you feel he’s too risky.  I’m not sure there will another SP like him available in terms of potential impact and now is the time you guys should really be going for it.

Lesser prospects  

 

You’re funny … Last year Cease was an ACE derailed by the poor defense of the White Sox and the FIP arguments.

Well here he sits again with a 4.24 ERA….basically the same mid rotation guy he’s been in all but one season.

Your guys …maybe not you specifically argued he was worth an ACE return with 2 top 100s plus others.

 

This is the return…..White Sox receive: RHP Drew Thorpe (MLB Pipeline's No. 85 prospect; SD No. 5), OF Samuel Zavala (SD No. 7), RHP Jairo Iriarte (SD No. 8), RHP Steven Wilson 

 

That’s right …..Our farm is superior to the Padres and you guys were screaming for Holiday plus others.

 

My offer was five players that included #2, #4, #5 #15, and Stowers.

 

Far better than the Cease package and one extra player. 
 

So your basically getting Basallo, Bright, and Stowers for Crochet

and Norby & Bradfield  for Robert. 
 

Even if it takes a couple lottery tickets to get finalized it’s a good deal.

 

Looking at the Cease deal….. Thorpe was/is a win , Steven Wilson is a noncloser relief pitcher, both the other guys are struggling in AA. One has a 4.64 ERA at AA and the other has a .203 BA and a .698 OPS.

Edited July 7 by Roll Tide

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

“When healthy”…those words are why he’s not worth what you guys think they do. Judging by the “intelligence” on your site, I’m guessing most think he’s worth a top 20 guy, a top 75 guy and more.

 

BTW, his OPs is almost 60 points lower this year. His wOBA is down, his wRC+ is down and he is worth .9 fWAR so far this year.  I’m actually one of the few on here who would go after him but the value for him is 100% down from what it was in the offseason.

His wRC+ was down one point prior to yesterday’s game.  At that time, it was the second highest wRC+ amongst qualified CFs.  It dropping a little bit over two games doesn’t change the core point.

And his fWAR is lower than usual because of his defense.  Having watched him play all year, I have zero concerns that his defensive ability has suddenly eroded.  The physical gifts that have made him a plus defender are all still there.

I also don’t fully agree on the health stuff.  This isn’t Eloy Jimenez who has literally suffered every injury known to man.  Robert’s injury this year 100% flukey.  He played all of last year.   His value isn’t going to take a massive dent because of a flukey hip flexor injury.  This trade market will also be lacking impact positional players and it will be very hard for the many teams in need of OF help to argue they should get a huge discount because of “availability” for a player who is currently available.  I feel optimistic that one of the Mariners or Phillies will pony up.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His wRC+ was down one point prior to yesterday’s game.  At that time, it was the second highest wRC+ amongst qualified CFs.  It dropping a little bit over two games doesn’t change the core point.

And his fWAR is lower than usual because of his defense.  Having watched him play all year, I have zero concerns that his defensive ability has suddenly eroded.  The physical gifts that have made him a plus defender are all still there.

I also don’t fully agree on the health stuff.  This isn’t Eloy Jimenez who has literally suffered every injury known to man.  Robert’s injury this year 100% flukey.  He played all of last year.   His value isn’t going to take a massive dent because of a flukey hip flexor injury.  This trade market will also be lacking impact positional players and it will be very hard for the many teams in need of OF help to argue they should get a huge discount because of “availability” for a player who is currently available.  I feel optimistic that one of the Mariners or Phillies will pony up.

Last year was the only year he has played over 100 games. 
 

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/mlb/chicago-white-sox/a-look-back-at-luis-robert-jr-s-bleak-injury-history/3403483/?amp=1

Edited July 7 by Sports Guy

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Scherzer #1.5

Kikuchi #2 

Fedde #2.5 

Severino #3.5

Crochet, Webb, Skubal #1

Our guys… Burnes #1, Grayson #2, Suarez #3.5, Kremer #4, Povich/Irvin #5.5

Thoughts?  Trying to be fair.  

 

Think you’re half a notch or more too high on the guys who aren’t ours. 

Scherzer ahead of Grayson doesn’t track for me on anything but name value at this point. And Kikuchi even with Grayson is just way off in my book. He is much closer to being Kremer’s peer than he is to being Grayson’s.

I’d say Fedde as a 2.5 would be about right based on year-to-date performance, but there’s gotta be some adjustment downward based on lack of track record. I think Severino is probably somewhere in the 3.5-4 range, that one I could live with. 

Webb and Skubal are both legitimate 1s, and I think you could give Crochet the same designation based on this year’s performance — but again, much like Fedde, that would have to come with an asterisk based on zero track record.