Grade the Eflin Trade

[Sports Guy]

The team just drafted several CFers. Ethel may have beaten them all out but chances are he didn’t have a long term place here.  Same thing with Horvath. Just no spot.

Baumeister is the one who hurts and who the hell knows if he ever develops.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I wonder how people would feel if Eflin’s ERA this season started with a 3 - like every single more predictive measure (3.37 xERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA) - instead of being a ghastly 4.09. 

For those hoping for somebody better - who exactly do you think is better who is potentially available other than Skubal and Crochet?

Fedde has been better this year, but last year he was in Korea and Eflin had a 4.7 fWAR season with a 3.50 ERA. I’d still take Eflin over him going forward, even if it’s close. More importantly, he’s also owed only $7.5M next year to Eflin’s $18M, so the trade price will be MUCH higher and every single team looking for pitching can afford him next year and is competing for him. Taking Eflin’s salary lowered the competition and the prospect capital and is EXACTLY the type of deal the Orioles should be doing with their payroll flexibility.

Snell was horrible this year, then hurt, and now maybe himself again. Even if you think he’s good going forward now, he’s a rental with the anchor of a potential $31M salary next year if he gets injured or starts struggling again. 

Bassitt is good, but by all predictive measures other than ERA still worse than Eflin this year, but he’s 35 and owed even more next year ($21M). And the reports are he’s not even available. 

Taillon is fine, but not better than Eflin - everything in his profile is pointing to a 4+ ERA much more than Eflin. Rangers are not trading Eovaldi or Scherzer now. Luzardo maybe, but he’s hurt and MIA may not be trading him either. 

Am I missing anybody? I’d love to add any of these guys too and don’t think the Orioles should stop here. But Eflin was arguably the best available, and definitely the best fit in terms of the balance of prospect capital vs. taking on salary. To boot they also added added to a rotation next year that right now only has Grayson and Kremer. 

I can understand wanting a more impressive high K, ace SP type in theory, but with all of this context I don’t know how you could think anything other than loving this deal. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Hated to see Baumeister traded but Elias did what he had to do.

A couple things…

- You gotta trade pitching to get SP it seems. 

- Eflin, Dominguez, and Pache, all aren’t rentals. 

- Does Elias wait and see how the team plays until deadline time before firing another bullet at another SP?  Like Holliday+ for Skubal?

I like the moves. Now the team needs to freaking perform on the field. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The team just drafted several CFers. Ethel may have beaten them all out but chances are he didn’t have a long term place here.  Same thing with Horvath. Just no spot.

Baumeister is the one who hurts and who the hell knows if he ever develops.

Talk about selling high on Etzel. We drafted him in the 10th rd a year ago and got to include him as a major piece in a deadline trade for a SP. 

[Roll Tide]

Interesting…mlb.com has Horvath #18, Baumeister at #13 , and Etzel at #27. 
 

Interesting considering that they had Horvath #10 and ahead of Baumeister. I wonder if it’s a mistake.

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/rays/

Edited July 27 by Roll Tide
Etzel …. Apple AI and spell correct stinks

[Number5]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Efflin at #27. 

Do you mean Etzel?

[terpoh]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A couple things…

- You gotta trade pitching to get SP it seems. 

- Eflin, Dominguez, and Pache, all aren’t rentals. 

- Does Elias wait and see how the team plays until deadline time before firing another bullet at another SP?  Like Holliday+ for Skubal?

I like the moves. Now the team needs to freaking perform on the field. 

You need to realize that Holliday is not going anywhere. Not even worth discussing. We're not trading the #1/#1 prospect in the game.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Do you mean Etzel?

Yes …thanks

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, terpoh said:

You need to realize that Holliday is not going anywhere. Not even worth discussing. We're not trading the #1/#1 prospect in the game.

That’s your opinion. Whether I feel a Holliday for Skubal trade makes sense, I was pointing out that does Elias take that down to wire to wait and see if he should invest any more assets into this current team?

Everything on this message board, and short of the players playing the game, is all conjecture. We’re all allowed to have opinions. But those opinions aren’t facts.

Elias plays things so close to the vest. We all talk on her ad nauseam about moves but nobody ever really brought up Hays to Philly. Eflin was a possibility.  

Edited July 27 by sportsfan8703

[Morgan423]

Solid A to me.  1.5 seasons of a good #3 SP at the cost of a couple of prospects who, while decent, didn't really have a landing spot here, and a young pitcher who may or may not develop into the type of starter that we just acquired.

The only light sting in it to me is in somewhat helping a division rival light-rebuild, but that will be faced a couple of seasons down the road, and not really a worry right now. 

And we didn't have to give up any of the key guys that would really have hurt (like Holliday, Mayo, Basillo).  So I'm a big fan of this trade right now.     

[terpoh]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That’s your opinion. Whether I feel a Holliday for Skubal trade makes sense, I was pointing out that does Elias take that down to wire to wait and see if he should invest any more assets into this current team?

Everything on this message board, and short of the players playing the game, is all conjecture. We’re all allowed to have opinions. But those opinions aren’t facts.

Elias plays things so close to the vest. We all talk on her ad nauseam about moves but nobody ever really brought up Hays to Philly. Eflin was a possibility.  

Yes, its my opinion, but its based on MLB trade history and Mike Elias trade tendencies. You said does Elias wait until the end to make a move, but you also named Holliday by name.

I brought this up in another thread, but the only other time in MLB recent history where the #1 prospect in baseball was traded for pitching was when the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale and sent over #1 Yoan Moncada and others. Of course, in this example, Moncada has not panned out as I'm sure the White Sox hoped when they received the #1 prospect in the game. This was also an offseason trade, not an inseason trade. And Chris Sale was far more successful and proven as an MLB pitcher at that time. He had been to 5 consecutive All Star Games, and had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting 5 consecutive years as well. Skubal made his first ASG this year and has never finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting. Skubal is very talented and has the chance to get to that level, but There is not really a comparison between 2016 Chris Sale and 2024 Tarik Skubal nor anyone else who could be traded this deadline. 

This is why I say Holliday will not be moved. He is way more valuable than people around here are giving him credit for (#37 trade value in all of baseball per fangraphs). There is just not a lot of historical evidence that GM's are willing to part with #1, and certainly Elias has not shown the tendency to give up top prospects. He has liked to trade from the 6-12 range in the Orioles system.

Edited July 27 by terpoh

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Yes, its my opinion, but its based on MLB trade history and Mike Elias trade tendencies.

I brought this up in another thread, but the only other time in MLB recent history where the #1 prospect in baseball was traded for pitching was when the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale and sent over #1 Yoan Moncada and others. Of course, in this example, Moncada has not panned out as I'm sure the White Sox hoped when they received the #1 prospect in the game. This was also an offseason trade, not an inseason trade. And Chris Sale was far more successful and proven as an MLB pitcher at that time. He had been to 5 consecutive All Star Games, and had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting 5 consecutive years as well. Skubal made his first ASG this year and has never finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting. Skubal is very talented and has the chance to get to that level, but There is not really a comparison between 2016 Chris Sale and 2024 Tarik Skubal nor anyone else who could be traded this deadline. 

This is why I say Holliday will not be moved. He is way more valuable than people around here are giving him credit for (#37 trade value in all of baseball per fangraphs). There is just not a lot of historical evidence that GM's are willing to part with #1, and certainly Elias has not shown the tendency to give up top prospects. He has liked to trade from the 6-12 range in the Orioles system.

I hear you, but what does the #1 prospect ranking really mean? We all follow baseball pretty closely.

It’s a slam dunk for me to same that James Wood is the better prospect than Jackson Holliday. 

I would even rate our big 3 as Basallo up top with Holliday - Mayo equal in value. But that’s my opinions. 

Point being… that #1 ranking stuff doesn’t really matter. Holliday is one of 10-15 really elite prospects in the game. A ranking takes into account draft status, int’l signing bonus, being ranked previously, hype, stats vs state, a lot of subjective stuff. 

So would we trade one of the 10-15 elite prospects in the game for Skubal, who is favored to win the AL CYA currently?  I think Elias waits to see how this team plays the next few games. Only we can seemingly afford to acquire Skubal.

Edited July 27 by sportsfan8703

[woodberry]

46 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Interesting…mlb.com has Horvath #18, Baumeister at #13 , and Etzel at #27. 
 

Interesting considering that they had Horvath #10 and ahead of Baumeister. I wonder if it’s a mistake.

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/rays/

For what it's worth, Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen +1) recently published their mid-season rankings of Orioles prospects. I feel like they tend to be conservative with their projections, but they are usually pretty darn good. They had Baumeister at 13, Horvath at 25, and Etzel wasn't in the top 45. It's worth a look. I like this trade. Maybe one of these guys pops, maybe Eflin flops. Who knows. I personally think this was a risk worth taking...it raises the floor of the pitching staff.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects-2024/

 

 

[terpoh]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hear you, but what does the #1 prospect ranking really mean? We all follow baseball pretty closely.

It’s a slam dunk for me to same that James Wood is the better prospect than Jackson Holliday. 

I would even rate our big 3 as Basallo up top with Holliday - Mayo equal in value. But that’s my opinions. 

Point being… that #1 ranking stuff doesn’t really matter. Holliday is one of 10-15 really elite prospects in the game. A ranking takes into account draft status, int’l signing bonus, being ranked previously, hype, stats vs state, a lot of subjective stuff. 

So would we trade one of the 10-15 elite prospects in the game for Skubal, who is favored to win the AL CYA currently?  I think Elias waits to see how this team plays the next few games. Only we can seemingly afford to acquire Skubal.

I'm with you and I would very much consider giving up a 10-15 ranked prospect plus more for Skubal. I dont think we can just brush off being #1 as being meaningless however. It does carry some weight, whether that weight is warranted or not. 

[Just Regular]

I'm splurging for Love because Eflin is such an elegant bridge to Bradish full strength return and today he looks more likely than not to deliver a bonus draft pick via qualifying offer after 2025.

The fun challenge part with the Rays as partner is how scary is Baumeister to let go.     I'd guess putting value labels on the trio the Rays motivation is something like Baumeister 65, Horvath 25, Etzel 10.