Donta Williams release and why Elias needs to adjust his draft philosophy

[Aristotelian]

33 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

I would argue this proves the counter to your point and proves Tony’s argument precisely.

theres also no guarantee Bradish returns to being he same pitcher he was in 2023. The need pitching depth in the worst way.

It validates specific claim (we don't have a lot of pitching) but that is just stating the obvious. But it also validates the general strategy of drafting for overall value and supplementing as needed. Both can be true.

[LookitsPuck]

50 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am not a draft guru but my two cents on the overall strategy:

Overall value is more important than balance because you can fill holes via trade and free agency. If we hit consistently on hitters, that is preferable to balanced but mediocre talent. The draft is an important source of talent but not the only one. 

Elias's track record for overall value is good, especially the 2019-21 drafts and Holliday. The 2019 draft was an absolute franchise changing draft.  

We don't have a pitching pipeline and it is Elias's responsibility to fix it. 

Is there a team (or multiple teams) with a better track record of drafting for both value and balance? If so, then it would be fair to expect Elias to draft both. If not, let's see how it plays out. 

 

The Orioles rotation options this year so far:

• Burnes (traded for by Elias)
• Bradish (traded for by Elias)
• Kremer (traded for by Duquette)
• Wells (Rule 5 by Elias)
• Grayson (drafted by Duquette)
• Means (drafted by Duquette)
• Suarez (FA signing by Elias)
• Povich (traded for by Elias)
• McDermott (traded for by Elias)
• Eflin (traded for by Elias)
• Rogers (traded for by Elias)

Do what that as you will. But I’d like to see more FA signings, and it’s early but the international crop might be coming around soon. 

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Would a Kjerstad trade and a Santander signing be related?

I think that’s very possible.  I guess they could keep Santander, trade OHearn and keep Kjerstad but I still question how much value OHearn is going to have.

[Jagwar]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think that’s very possible.  I guess they could keep Santander, trade OHearn and keep Kjerstad but I still question how much value OHearn is going to have.

Under the Angelos regime, I would have expected the O's to keep O'Hearn and Kjerstad, and Santander to sign elsewhere. I'm hopeful things are different with Rubenstein, but we shall see.  

[Jammer7]

It is true, we need more pitching. It is true Elias has missed on a few college bats. It is true that Gillespie (2019 again) is the only pitcher drafted by Elias to pitch in MLB, albeit with another organization.

A common saying in player development and drafting in years past was draft five pitchers and maybe get one to MLB. Just an anecdotal observation, but in these times I think it might closer to 1 out of 7-8. Injuries hit this demographic very hard for kids, particularly kids from the US. Lots of reason why. 

Elias needed to quickly build the farm system, which (for decades)was one of the worst in MLB, outside of Hays, Mountcastle, Means, Grayson and DL. No one saw Means coming. Grayson had just been drafted. DL had one year. All of these guys took major steps forward, along with Mullins, when Elias got here. It is safe to say those guys would not have turned out like this in the previous regime.

Every organization misses, and does so frequently. I remember @Frobby saying a few years ago that if you get 3-4 MLB players from a draft, that is a pretty good draft. I agree. I have read it elsewhere, I just cannot remember where. We can all point out weaknesses or gaps, and sure they can do better. Which organization has been consensus #1 for three years running? Yeah, Baltimore. From awful to excellent, but not perfect, in three years.

@Tony-OH I am not arguing with your basic premise. I am just saying, his way has worked, overall. It can, and maybe it should, change now that things have come around. It appears he is bringing international arms in waves. A lot cheaper, and hungrier than most US kids, who have leverage and a lot more options. Most US pitchers are at least middle class, if not upper middle class. They spend a lot of money on pitching lessons and what not. Kids from Venezuela and the DR are outside throwing all day long. They are not wealthy, and they stay outside all day, developing with passion and hunger. 

Lastly, the system doesn’t have the coming elite impact talent it had for the past 3-4 years. I would say there is more overall talent and depth now than ever before. This is where our actual development team needs to shine. We get more for less money, we also get less impact guys. That is the byproduct of being a playoff and World Series contender. I am very good with that.

Elias didn’t make trades of consequence last year and this board went crazy. He makes trades this year, and some say he gave up too much, or we sold low on guys who would not have played here, like Stowers and Norby. That is the price for an MLB starter with more than a few months under contract. And Roger’s will be much better in Baltimore than he was in Miami. Eflin was a great trade for both sides. We’ll see about the rest of it as it plays out. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Every organization misses, and does so frequently. I remember @Frobby saying a few years ago that if you get 3-4 MLB players from a draft, that is a pretty good draft. I agree. I have read it elsewhere, I just cannot remember where.

Depends what you mean by “major league player.”   The average team debuts about 8 players a year, 5-6 from the draft and 2-3 from international.  Many of those players have only a cup of coffee or very limited careers. According to some research I did here, an average team draft produces 23.2 WAR (mean average), but a median draft produces about 14.5 WAR.  In other words, every so often you need a bumper crop that brings up the average.  Obviously, the 2019 draft was such a bumper crop, already producing 27.6 rWAR and quite possibly producing 100 rWAR by the time Adley, Gunnar and others retire.   That can make up for several bum drafts.   

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I am not a draft guru but my two cents on the overall strategy:

Overall value is more important than balance because you can fill holes via trade and free agency. If we hit consistently on hitters, that is preferable to balanced but mediocre talent. The draft is an important source of talent but not the only one. 

Elias's track record for overall value is good, especially the 2019-21 drafts and Holliday. The 2019 draft was an absolute franchise changing draft.  

We don't have a pitching pipeline and it is Elias's responsibility to fix it. 

Is there a team (or multiple teams) with a better track record of drafting for both value and balance? If so, then it would be fair to expect Elias to draft both. If not, let's see how it plays out. 

 

Elias has a great track record of drafting in the 1st round. He does not have much success drafting college hitters AFTER the 1st round. I really don't understand why this is hard to understand.

The entire point is not to say Elias is bad at drafting or his drafting in the first round (mostly while picking in the top 5 of the draft) has not put the organization where it is right now. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I basically agree with the OP, but doesn't everyone miss on most college position player talent after round 2? Is Elias especially bad at this? Wouldn't shock me if he was actually above average.

It seems like he's relying on the Latin America pipeline to get pitching. You can get a lot more players for less money. He's always taken the shotgun approach to pitching, and I think you get more pellets to fire in Latin America.

All that said, he really needs to draft more pitching in the first five rounds.

I keep seeing people say this but they really haven't gone into high bonuses on pitching from Latin America. Have they maybe stumbled upon a Morfe or De Leon (though Aberdeen has proven difficult for his lack of command) but what makes people think he's relying on Latin America for pitching?

We're 5 Latin American signing periods in and who are the top pitching prospects ready to pitch in the majors? Forget the majors, none have even made it to AA yet. 

Now there are some interesting arms and Morfe has certainly jumped on the scene. Koby Perez is doing a good job of signing a bunch of raw good velocity guys and hoping a  few work out. 

It very well may, but let's no act like there's a huge pipeline of top tier Latin American pitching prospects picking up the slack for his lack of ability to draft and develop pitching.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I keep seeing people say this but they really haven't gone into high bonuses on pitching from Latin America. Have they maybe stumbled upon a Morfe or De Leon (though Aberdeen has proven difficult for his lack of command) but what makes people think he's relying on Latin America for pitching?

 

The Astros managed it ergo the Orioles will do it.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

This. They obviously value bats more than pitchers in the higher rounds of the drafts, probably because of the injury risks of pitchers, but also because they can do what they just did with, say, Billy Cook. They've also traded aging vets (Mancini, Lopez) for pitching prospects and bullpen arms as well as traded prospects for Burnes, Rogers, Eflin, and other bullpen arms. Is it sustainable? Who knows. They need to hit on the international draft. But this strategy isn't too different than the Astros with how much emphasis they put on the international draft, tbh. 

So wait, six drafts in and they accidently hit on a 10th rounder and trade him for a guy with a good arm, but reliever vibes and you are counting that as part of his strategy working?

As for trading vets for prospects, they're not in that phase any more. And let's look at the guy they've acquired in these trades. Besides Bradish and Cano, who has significantly contributed to the Orioles the last two years? 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I’m not arguing that the pitching depth is good, it’s not. I’m saying his philosophy has worked.

Everyone that says his strategy has worked needs to include "In the 1st round." 

Elias has proven to be an excellent drafter in the first round and typically drafting with a top 5 picks. 

I don't have an issue with him going for bats with his first round pick. I have an issue with him drafting low-ceiling college bats in the 2nd-5th round over college arms. 

I'm not saying he has to go all arms, but mix it up. Last year, by drafting Baumeister in the 2nd round, it helped get him Eflin. 

It took pitching as well as hitting to get both Eflin and Burnes. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Everyone that says his strategy has worked needs to include "In the 1st round." 

Elias has proven to be an excellent drafter in the first round and typically drafting with a top 5 picks. 

I don't have an issue with him going for bats with his first round pick. I have an issue with him drafting low-ceiling college bats in the 2nd-5th round over college arms. 

I'm not saying he has to go all arms, but mix it up. Last year, by drafting Baumeister in the 2nd round, it helped get him Eflin. 

It took pitching as well as hitting to get both Eflin and Burnes. 

 

I think teams almost always want some pitching back when they trade a pitcher.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The thing is, the system is getting light fast. There are certainly some intriguing guys but most of them are far away.

Some of this worry over pitching goes away if Elias wants to sign guys and ownership is good with it but we definitely can’t keep relying on trading positional talent to get pitching. It has worked and that’s great but unless you are picking up bad contracts or something like that, you are going to struggle to get much quality.

Now, I do think we move Kjerstad in the offseason. I just don’t see him fitting on this team with their emphasis on defense.

They either have to convert Mayo to RF or resign Santander if they want to move on from Kjerstad. I think they are going to hope Kjerstad can improve defensively like Santander did at the major league level.

[Go_Os]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I've been consistent on this messaging and HAS NOTHING to do with just one player. I used this as an example because it was a good opportunity to speak facts about this situation once again. Elias went with a low-ceiling college bat who's upside was a 4th outfielder instead of going for arms. 

I realize that some people like yourself will always give Elias/SIGBOT the benefit of the doubt. That is your right. But as Elias consistently misses with his college bats after the 2nd round and his system is bereft of pitching talent, at the end of the day is he's going to run out of tradable bats for arms.

And besides, most teams are not going to trade good young pitching because of the attrition of pitchers. 

The fact is that he's never drafted and developed one single major league pitcher and has been drafted since 2019. That's literally almost impossible unless they literally have no idea what to look for in pitchers they draft. Elias absolutely hit it out of the park with his 1st round picks and a lot of his 2nd round picks while drafting at the top of those round, now he no longer has that luxury and he must start hitting on guys lower in those rounds. 

He can't keep putting all his eggs in one basket because giving up 6-years of control of a player (Ortiz) and 5 years of a pitcher (Hall, who was a Rajsich selection out of high school) for one year of an impact starting pitcher is not sustainable. 

Even the Eflin trade, which looks to be a good one, cost the Orioles a decent amount of prospect draft capital including the highest pitcher ever selected by Elias (Baumeister). 

We have yet to see him trade an impact hitting prospects for an impact pitching prospect because very few teams are going to give up those pitchers because of the attrition and cost of free agent pitchers. 

All of the impact players currently on the Orioles were high 1st round, or very beginning of the 2nd round selections. 

The Orioles are in a different phase and Elias needs to adjust his drafting philosophy. But I'll be honest here, I personally don't think Elias/Sig's system is able to evaluate pitchers very well, especially those out of the amateur ranks. 

Basically of all his drafts and trades for minor leaguers, they've identified and developed ONE major league starter in Kyle Bradish. If you add in Cano that's two impact pitchers. 

Maybe we can conclude that their system does not do a good job of identifying talent because it looks for velocity, pitch shapes, and spin, and doesn't weigh command and consistency high enough. 

Even Povich and McDermott are the same type of guys. 

If you're not questioning his draft strategy and scouting of pitching by now, you never will. 

 

I share your frustration, but I think Elias and Sig feel that drafting hitting is safer since they stay healthy more often that not, and they can trade for arms later.  I don't think they have done a particularly great job of that at this point, but I think that is their thought process.  

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think teams almost always want some pitching back when they trade a pitcher.

They typically do, which is another reason to draft more guys with pedigree of being a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I don't think Tamp trade Eflin without getting back a 2nd round pitching prospect. 

Who's the Baumeister now? Maybe Forret? Morfe?