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8/17 vs Red Sox (Povich start)

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

No cleat gate tonight.

Tony-OH
Tony-OH
forphase1
forphase1

Man, he keeps this up he may only have thrown like 65 pitches when Hyde pulls him.  🙂 

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terpoh Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

terpoh

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

He wanting the hole between first and second plus they don’t have anymore lefties so probably didn’t want Slator vs righty later on.  Mullins should get a right hander next at bat.  

Its not even a guarantee that Mullins/Slater get another at bat, why mess around at the possibility of whats going to happen later? You have a man on base and a guy who is incapable of hitting lefties. Not like Mullins has killed righties this year either, certainly not enough to warrant looking at his possible next at bat. Hyde has never operated like that this year, so it was weird he left Mullins in- and it was a pretty predictable wasted out. 

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Goober Noodles Hangout Veteran Council

Goober Noodles

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Just now, LookitsPuck said:

Hey, the O’s have been 20 games above 500 for seemingly months now. On 6/9, they were 20 over. After tonight, 8/17, they are tracking to be 20 over. It’s over 9 weeks of average play. Now with more injuries. It’s just so meh.

I understand your plight.  You can whine less though.  Maybe say a "let's go" o..WELL CRAP

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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Just now, Tony-OH said:

I've had an epiphany tonight.

I was looking at the lineups on the jumbotron and realized, holy crap, the Red Sox are a much better offense. 

Then add in they are not clutch  in any way, the bullpen is a dumpster fire of rejects and has beens, and the rotation is anchored by a guy who got shelled after his team fought back for him, and it made me realize.

This team is not really very good. Like, this not a losing streak or guys struggling,  this team is a .500 team at best that played well early, bit the regression is real.

Oh, and the fact this team does not come back is just another point.

The Red Sox offense is dynamic, fast, and well balanced with nearly every hitter with an OPS near or above 800 OPS. Now that they’re healthy, they’re a force.

Theyre a better team than the O’s right now. Pre-injuries is a different story, but that’s not the team the O’s have. 

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EddeeEddee Major Leaguer

EddeeEddee

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1 minute ago, baltfan said:

Clutch hitting I said.  There have been a lot of times when they needed the break through hit and didn’t get it. 

I don't really believe that much in clutch hitting, other than the fact that guys that get on base the most tend to be the best in the clutch.

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      I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked.  But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead).  And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).   At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.
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