Arbruester and moving guys to relief

[Tony-OH]

I've been critical of the Orioles drafting and developing of pitchers but Justin Armbruester could be a success story if the Orioles would just develop him right.

A 12th round pick in 2021, I first started to notice him in Aberdeen and thought that they may have found something. Even then he kind of screamed out to me that he was a relief prospects because his change was not good and none of his breaking balls were overwhelmingly good, but his fastball was able to miss bats.

He's made his way through the system up to AAA last year and in AAA he's been utterly consistently inconsistent. But he will flash you stuff that suggest if you narrow his innings down, they might have a usable piece.

In other words, Justin Arbruester is a minor league pitcher that just screams out "Move me to relief."

I just don't get how or why the Orioles refuse to take guys like this and convert them to relief so they can learn how to warm up quickly and pitch often. Why are they running him out to start when he's got no out pitch for a lefty consistently? Now, could he be a matchup guy a bit? Maybe. 

He just had his best start of the year with a 12 K, 1 ER (homerun, which is a problem for him) last night. He was mainly effective yesterday with his fastball and cutter, with a mix of his sweeper and curveball at times. 

I'd love to see whether he would get a tick up in velocity if he knew he was coming in for one inning. 

He's way too inconsistent to be considered a starter. He's not young, it's time to see what he looks like in a relief role in Norfolk!

Now, do I know if his stuff will tick up a bit, absolutely not. Will he need to find something to defend himself against lefties, yep. Is he probably nothing more than an up/down 6th inning guy, probably. 

But what we know he's not is going to be an effective major league starter. Why keep running him out in this role. He's almost 26-years old. He's got some tools to work with and maybe cutting him down to fastball, cutter, and one of his breaking balls (sweeper probably) would allow them to tick up?

It's time to make the move and maybe they wouldn't have to keep signing minor league free agents who opt out of their minor league contracts if they would develop some of their own relievers. 

[Sports Guy]

Ironically, I think it’s a byproduct of not drafting pitchers. They want to keep as much rotational depth as possible because they know they don’t have any and want to keep trying guys out in case something clicks.

We also don’t know what they are working on with these guys either

[Aristotelian]

The upside of working as a starter is simply more innings, more experience. Kind of like developing guys at SS even if they end up playing 2B. Could they split the difference and have him piggyback with an opener? If his future is relief, he would probably start out in long relief anyway.

[RZNJ]

Actually, I think the reason they don’t convert them to relievers is that you can shake a tree and get Bowman, Selby, Smith, Anderson and numerous other fungible relievers on waivers.

[Tony-OH]

41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The upside of working as a starter is simply more innings, more experience. Kind of like developing guys at SS even if they end up playing 2B. Could they split the difference and have him piggyback with an opener? If his future is relief, he would probably start out in long relief anyway.

That is not what I'm talking about at all. Ugghhh, that's so frustrating. It's like you are talking to me like I haven't been doing this for 28 years! Why would you even throw this out there like I don't know why pitchers are sent out to start initially?

Of course you take guys early on and give them innings to develop them. I'm talking about an almost 26-year old with 348 minor league innings under his belt.

It is time to develop him in the role that he MIGHT be able to help you at, not in a role you know he's no going to help you at.

Good development organizations know when to convert their pitchers to a role they may help in and not keep them in roles that they are not going to be successful at in the major leagues.

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Actually, I think the reason they don’t convert them to relievers is that you can shake a tree and get Bowman, Selby, Smith, Anderson and numerous other fungible relievers on waivers.

So you think Armbruester is a starter? 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ironically, I think it’s a byproduct of not drafting pitchers. They want to keep as much rotational depth as possible because they know they don’t have any and want to keep trying guys out in case something clicks.

We also don’t know what they are working on with these guys either

But he not a starter. He's shown over and over that he's not consistent enough nor does he have an out pitch against lefties. What has he done on any consistent basis that makes you think he's a starter that's just going to suddenly click?

You want to know what pitches he's "working on?" Go look at his statcast information like I did and you can see. I don't need to guess what they have him working on, I can see the pitch counts.

What I also can do is go look at his game by game stats, his pitch quality through stat cast, his stats against righties and lefties, his age, and his experience. 

We can do all of that without knowing what "magic" anyone thinks that they are working with him on. I'm sure the Orioles great track record of developing minor league pitching would certainly give people the warm and fuzzies that they are doing what's right once again, right?

Maybe just maybe, there is a different way to do these things, and maybe just maybe a few of these guys will make their way up and help this team win games. 

But nah, let's just hope they are sprinkling their Holt fairly dust on these guys as they work them in roles that have seen them put up an 8 ERA this year.

I'm sorry, I'm no longer giving this organization the benefit of the doubt that they are developing pitchers correctly. We already know they can't draft and evaluate them well, which is why they don't spend their draft capital on them. 

I'm sure some SIGBOT tells them not to draft pitchers until later, but that same SIGBOT is drafting a lot of failed college hitters after the 1st round and allowing the few ones that do look good to be traded away for a major league version of Bruce Zimmermann, who was already on the 40-man roster.

I know Elias and SIGBOT have done well is several areas, but identifying, drafting, and developing pitching is not one of them.

Through sheer numbers and luck one should hot at some point you would think, but if they need to identify when a pitcher reaches about 25 years old (depending on injury history), what he does well and what role he will be most effective as. 

Maybe Armbruester will never be anything, but what I would bet a good amount money on is that he's not going to be an effective major league starter at this point without a complete make over or new pitch.

[Frobby]

Well, I do think it is clear that the O's wait a very long time to convert starting pitchers to relievers.  Why, I don't know.

As to Armbruester specifically, I feel they are trying to to change the type of pitcher he was up though AA last year.   In AA in 2022-23, he averaged 2.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9.  But when they moved him to AAA, he suddenly started walking more guys and striking out more guys (5.1 and 10.2).   The overall results have not been pretty (6.76 ERA in AAA vs. 3.59 in AA), but this may be a situation where the O's have told Armbruester to trust the process and not worry about results.   

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But he not a starter. He's shown over and over that he's not consistent enough nor does he have an out pitch against lefties. What has he done on any consistent basis that makes you think he's a starter that's just going to suddenly click?

You want to know what pitches he's "working on?" Go look at his statcast information like I did and you can see. I don't need to guess what they have him working on, I can see the pitch counts.

What I also can do is go look at his game by game stats, his pitch quality through stat cast, his stats against righties and lefties, his age, and his experience. 

We can do all of that without knowing what "magic" anyone thinks that they are working with him on. I'm sure the Orioles great track record of developing minor league pitching would certainly give people the warm and fuzzies that they are doing what's right once again, right?

Maybe just maybe, there is a different way to do these things, and maybe just maybe a few of these guys will make their way up and help this team win games. 

But nah, let's just hope they are sprinkling their Holt fairly dust on these guys as they work them in roles that have seen them put up an 8 ERA this year.

I'm sorry, I'm no longer giving this organization the benefit of the doubt that they are developing pitchers correctly. We already know they can't draft and evaluate them well, which is why they don't spend their draft capital on them. 

I'm sure some SIGBOT tells them not to draft pitchers until later, but that same SIGBOT is drafting a lot of failed college hitters after the 1st round and allowing the few ones that do look good to be traded away for a major league version of Bruce Zimmermann, who was already on the 40-man roster.

I know Elias and SIGBOT have done well is several areas, but identifying, drafting, and developing pitching is not one of them.

Through sheer numbers and luck one should hot at some point you would think, but if they need to identify when a pitcher reaches about 25 years old (depending on injury history), what he does well and what role he will be most effective as. 

Maybe Armbruester will never be anything, but what I would bet a good amount money on is that he's not going to be an effective major league starter at this point without a complete make over or new pitch.

I agree he’s not a starter but I also don’t think it’s as black and white as looking at statcast and saying, boom this is what they are working on.

There are mechanical things they could be doing. The could be remaking his delivery. Grip changes on pitches, etc….

I agree he should be in the pen and have felt that for the last several months but again, if they feel there is something they are working him towards, I could see them keep trying it because they lack depth.

I think most teams have this issue. I used to think this about the Os all the time. Guys like David Hernandez, Mike Wright and Radhames Liz..names that jump to mind that were clearly relievers (if anything at all) but the team kept starting them.

 

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That is not what I'm talking about at all. Ugghhh, that's so frustrating. It's like you are talking to me like I haven't been doing this for 28 years! Why would you even throw this out there like I don't know why pitchers are sent out to start initially?

Of course you take guys early on and give them innings to develop them. I'm talking about an almost 26-year old with 348 minor league innings under his belt.

It is time to develop him in the role that he MIGHT be able to help you at, not in a role you know he's no going to help you at.

Good development organizations know when to convert their pitchers to a role they may help in and not keep them in roles that they are not going to be successful at in the major leagues.

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

 

I just don't get how or why the Orioles refuse to take guys like this and convert them to relief so they can learn how to warm up quickly and pitch often. 

You said you don't get the Orioles approach. I was offering the explanation. Now I understand that you get it but disagree with it and were just looking for support rather than discussion. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

You said you don't get the Orioles approach. I was offering the explanation. Now I understand that you get it but disagree with it and were just looking for support rather than discussion. 

You can disagree all you like, but providing old adages that have been used by minor league development from every team for probably 100 years, and acting like I would not know that is just strange.

Now if you think the Orioles have some new fangled pixie dust that they can develop a 26-year old with over 300 innings in the minor leagues into a major league starter when he's put up an 8 ERA, then great, tell us that. 

I provided my reasonings and you can certainly dismiss them, but please don't act like I don't understand how traditional development occurs.

[Jim'sKid26]

@Tony-OH do you think this is due to an inability to identify specific skills they want in RP vs. SP or an organizational philosophy that does not value relief pitchers? 

I personally think it is a combination of both.

I also think they, the O's development staff, are focused primarily on stuff and mechanics without a clear understanding of how accomplished professional pitchers actually get guys out. As you know, nuisance and pitchability are extremely hard to measure. And if you base all your decisions on what you can measure easily, you don't value what you cannot measure. 

I think they do a good job of knowing what their technology and statistics provide them. I'm not certain they actually watch guys pitch and critique approach, pitch sequencing and situational awareness. I could be dead wrong on this, but it seems to me they are missing the forest for the trees.  

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Tony-OH do you think this is due to an inability to identify specific skills they want in RP vs. SP or an organizational philosophy that does not value relief pitchers? 

I personally think it is a combination of both.

I also think they, the O's development staff, are focused primarily on stuff and mechanics without a clear understanding of how accomplished professional pitchers actually get guys out. As you know, nuisance and pitchability are extremely hard to measure. And if you base all your decisions on what you can measure easily, you don't value what you cannot measure. 

I think they do a good job of knowing what their technology and statistics provide them. I'm not certain they actually watch guys pitch and critique approach, pitch sequencing and situational awareness. I could be dead wrong on this, but it seems to me they are missing the forest for the trees.  

Yeah, those are some good points. I do think their emphasis on bringing on coaches that understand the technology and data over guys that have experience teaching pitching could be an issue. 

I don't see a lot of pitchers throwing to all quadrants of the strike zone, changing speeds, knowing when to pitch to contact and when to go for that strike out. I also think they are throwing too many different pitches, which does not allow to them "master" a few that may make them successful at higher levels. 

When I hear of a pitcher in A ball with 5 pitches, then I see them and I'm like, you have two pitches, and three crap offerings. Now, I understand development and sometimes guys need to throw "crap offerings" to try and improve them. So I'm thinking you go with the main two pitches and use that one development pitch, maybe two at most to improve.

Some guys you just look at when they get tired, their delivery, and the fact they have the makings of a two or three pitch reliever and you should take that and develop them as such. At least that's what I would do once they reach AA, and especially once they reach AAA or 25-26 years old.

[Aristotelian]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can disagree all you like, but providing old adages that have been used by minor league development from every team for probably 100 years, and acting like I would not know that is just strange.

Now if you think the Orioles have some new fangled pixie dust that they can develop a 26-year old with over 300 innings in the minor leagues into a major league starter when he's put up an 8 ERA, then great, tell us that. 

I provided my reasonings and you can certainly dismiss them, but please don't act like I don't understand how traditional development occurs.

I never said I disagreed. You might be right, or the Orioles might be right. There are theories on both sides. To be convinced I would need to see data that it actually helps relievers to be developed as relievers at a certain point. 

Bautista and Cano were successful being developed as relievers. Hader and Miller are guys who have been successful without learning how to warm up. 

I don't know anything. 

[UMDTerrapins]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm sure some SIGBOT tells them not to draft pitchers until later, but that same SIGBOT is drafting a lot of failed college hitters after the 1st round and allowing the few ones that do look good to be traded away for a major league version of Bruce Zimmermann, who was already on the 40-man roster.

There’s a lot that Elias has done right. But this right here is spot on and infuriating. International signings and draft picks after the first few rounds are like highly speculative low risk/high reward stock picks. You look for tools and roll the dice. There’s quality in quantity (Brach Rickey mindset). Go after high ceiling high school players who rarely pan out, not low floor college players who rarely pan out. Every year I’m disappointed by precious few high school signings.