Which pitchers who the O’s drafted and signed as amateurs are closest to the majors?

[Frobby]

@Tony-OHhas mentioned several times that not one pitcher drafted or signed by Elias as an amateur had pitched in the majors.  True enough, but that streak has to end sometime pretty soon.  Who will it be?  My top 5 (not a prospect ranking, just a guess as to when they reach the majors):

1.  Brandon Young, 2020 UDFA (now at Norfolk).  He’s by far the most likely to reach the majors of snyone on this list.  He possibly could be called up this year, but I’d say more likely it’s in the first half of 2025, either as a starter or in the bullpen.  I expect he will be added to the 40-man this winter.   

2.  Kade Strowd, 2019 12th round (Norfolk).  This is a bit of a flyer.   Strowd added a new pitch and was dominant at Bowie, but it didn’t really translate at Norfolk this year.  But, if he’s able to harness his stuff better next spring, he could be an early reinforcement for the bullpen.  He won’t be protected or claimed this winter, I expect.

3. Carlos Tavera, 2021 5th round (Norfolk).  When he was drafted, Tavera was the highest pick Elias had ever used on a pitcher since coming to Baltimore.  He’s split his time between Bowie and Norfolk, with much better success at the former, but he’s a guy I can imagine putting things together and getting a call-up next year.  He won’t be protected.

4. Dylan Heid, 2021 11th round (Bowie).   Heid has had a very good year at Bowie, and @wildcard suggested that he should be promoted, but he wasn’t.  He certainly should begin 2025 in Norfolk and would be another bullpen call-up candidate when things get thin.  He’s Rule 5 eligible but I think the O’s will not add him to the 40-man.  

5. Trace Bright, 2022 5th round (Bowie).  He’s been used as a starter but his future may be in the bullpen.  He’s got better stuff than many of our prospects, but command is an issue.  I think in a bullpen role he could be ready sometime in 2025.   But if they continue to develop him as a starter, he probably spends the whole year in the minors.  He is not yet Rule 5 eligible, so no rush here.  

Guys I didn’t include in my top 5 include Justin Armbruester (Norfolk starter who @Tony-OHthinks should be moved to the pen), Alex Pham (Bowie starter who probably starts next year in Norfolk’s rotation), and Cameron Weston (Bowie starter who began the year at Aberdeen but was promoted early in the year).   

Who are your top 5?  Anyone I’m forgetting who has a decent chance to see the majors next year sometime?

 

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

I want to see how Houston Roth would do in Bowie. He is a former starter who they moved to middle relief/late innings, who was actually decent as a starter. He is repeating Bowie this season and gets a good amount of strike outs. He does pitch a bit to contact, which can hurt him at times, but seems adept to getting the double play ground balls.

He missed about a month recently with an injury, so he might not get the Norfolk ride this year, but it'd be fun to see him in the AZ Fall League. If he does good there and starts off well in Norfolk next season, he could be a decent shuttle rider.

[Jammer7]

https://www.milb.com/player/connor-gillispie-687362
Well, the point Tony made is certainly valid. Their pitcher development is lacking. Connor Gillespie, the lone exception, was drafted by Elias in 2019 and left the organization via the minor league phase of rule 5 last Winter. He made it to MLB with the Guardians this season and recently was optioned to AAA.

Beyond Gillespie, who is a reliever now, to Tony’s point, I like most of the guys you pointed out. I’m not as high on Tavera, as it seems like he is always injured. If he can stay healthy, perhaps the command can come on. 

After Brandon Young, I think Alex Pham might be next. Strowd may beat Pham to the majors, but Pham should have more impact, though it would likely be in the pen. Strowd’s command won’t allow him to stay, and he’s a shuttle guy.

Pham was impressive to me when I saw him in the Spring. The overall package, the delivery, the demeanor/body language under pressure and ability to stay calm, the confidence, the competitiveness, and the stuff make me like him a lot. If he was a bit taller, he’d be much higher rated. Five average pitches and a low arm slot, which helps the 92-94 hoppy FB velo play up, t96, make him interesting to me. Some of the secondaries have been fringe average, but maybe he only needs three pitches. I’m not worried about his number much this season, as it is probably about development of the secondaries. 

Dylan Heid might be the most interesting potential back end reliever of the names listed.

Weston is intriguing, but that arm slot makes me wonder about his durability beyond this year. He’s been really good, though.

I think Bright needs to make significant progress between now and the end of 2025. He has work to do in the lab, and in the gym. He is certainly talented enough. 

I only see limited video and read about these guys like most here. It would be nice to see more of them, like Armbruster, become relievers. I think Young and Pham can be back end guys eventually, but both may start out in the pen. 

 

[LookitsPuck]

Connor Gillespie was drafted by Elias and made the majors, albeit with the Guardians. To Tony’s point, he’s yet to draft, develop and have a pitcher come up with the Orioles.

My guess is Armbruester is converted into a reliever a la Akin. We’ve only seen 2 instances of former starters turned relievers under the Elias regime: Akin and Wells, neither of which were drafted by his team. But both of them have excelled in their new roles. 

I think Young is called up this year as the extra arm in September. Armbruester would be 2025. 

After that, it’s Alex Pham. I think the rest of the guys mentioned are probably trade pieces. 

I’m pretty high on some of the international pitchers, tbh. But that wasn’t the point of this thread.

[wildcard]

Elias does not seem impressed with Held's stuff or he would have promoted him to Norfolk.  I don't think they protect him from the Rule 5 draft and I think he will be drafted by some other team.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias does not seem impressed with Held's stuff or he would have promoted him to Norfolk.  I don't think they protect him from the Rule 5 draft and I think he will be drafted by some other team.

You always say we’re going to lose someone in the Rule 5 draft and we never do.    

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You always say we’re going to lose someone in the Rule 5 draft and we never do.    

You’re right. That should change at some point soon, especially as the better international talent begins to trickle upward.