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Wait Till Next Year


Uli2001

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I thought Elias would take this team philosophy from a swing the for fences low OBP bunch to a group more focused on working counts, getting on base, and making contact. It appeared that way to me before the wheels fell off around mid season. I’m sure it’s been exaggerated here but we can’t seem to score runs without hitting dingers. Do you get it now? 

Just to be as clear as possible, when they were doing better early in the season, they were swinging more, not less.

4/1 - 6/30: 7.2 BB%, 49.3% swing rate, 29.8% out of zone swing rate, 22.2% whiff rate, .316 OBP

7/1 - 9/30: 8.7 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.0% out of zone swing rate, 22.4% whiff rate, .315 OBP

2023: 8.4 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.9% out of zone swing rate, 23.0% whiff rate, .321 OBP

They took less walks early in the year, they swung more often at both balls and strikes early in the year, and their OBP/whiff rates were essentially identical in both halves. 

The notion that they turned into free-swinging hackers in the second half — and that’s why they failed — seems to be pretty commonly held here, but it’s not backed by any data. They were actually more patient at the plate in this season’s second half than they’ve ever been during the Adley era.

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