Meoli on the 1st base situation

[theobird]

1 hour ago, InsideCoroner said:

I was I’m hoping his arm would get better as well, but it hasn’t. His caught stealing percentage since 2022 is 39%, 22% last year and fell to 19% this season. 

Those percentages are as much on the pitching staff as they are on the catcher. From what I see, Adley still throws well. My sole concern with him is the bat. Just don’t know what happened to the stick in the second half of the year

[theobird]

As to the first base situation, I put Mayo on first full time and give him an extended every day chance to get his bat going. I would trade Mountcastle. The ideas around a trade of Mounty to the Reds seemed good. Pretty sure Santander is gone. I bring back O’Hearn to back up at first and Rf as well as pinch hit. Silent J gets the same opportunity as Mayo for me. It’s really time imo to let our best prospects have a real chance. Not the jerk around. not 3 starts and ride the pine. In my world Holiday, Mayo and Kjerstad all play consistently from the start.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, InsideCoroner said:

I was I’m hoping his arm would get better as well, but it hasn’t. His caught stealing percentage since 2022 is 39%, 22% last year and fell to 19% this season. 

Part of that is because of the changes made to increase stolen bases.

Quote

* The league stole 3,503 bases in 2023, the most since the wild west days of baserunning in 1987 (3,585 steals). It was the first year with 3,000 steals since 2012 (3,229). The league's 80.1% stolen base success rate was a record and not by a small margin either.

In 2024 we saw 3,617 stolen bases.

His CS rate is closer to average than it is a detriment.

*AI generated quote.

Edited Saturday at 16:01 by Can_of_corn

[1fingerwillie]

20 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Do you want him in the majors working on it? 

Yes.

[1fingerwillie]

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

So you think that Elias will move Adley off being a catcher?

Yes that is exactly what I said. 

[Safelykept]

27 minutes ago, theobird said:

As to the first base situation, I put Mayo on first full time and give him an extended every day chance to get his bat going. I would trade Mountcastle. The ideas around a trade of Mounty to the Reds seemed good. Pretty sure Santander is gone. I bring back O’Hearn to back up at first and Rf as well as pinch hit. Silent J gets the same opportunity as Mayo for me. It’s really time imo to let our best prospects have a real chance. Not the jerk around. not 3 starts and ride the pine. In my world Holiday, Mayo and Kjerstad all play consistently from the start.

Kjerstad will be given a big chance unless AS comes back. Holliday will get big playing time. Not quite so sure about Mayo unless mounty gets injured. He’s only played like 10 games at first, and not very well. How much do you think he can get done offseason and ST? It’s only 1B so who knows

 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

I was I’m hoping his arm would get better as well, but it hasn’t. His caught stealing percentage since 2022 is 39%, 22% last year and fell to 19% this season. 

That’s a pretty huge drop off after 2022. Don’t you think a good bit of that is probably attributable to some of the rule changes, though?

His pop time was 1.93 seconds in 2022 and it was 1.96 seconds in 2024. Not getting better, but pretty comparable. 

He was +1 run (above average) on SB attempts in 2022. He was also +1 run on SB attempts in 2024. Again, not better but pretty much the same. That metric (per StatCast) is based on various inputs at the time the pitch crosses the plate: the pitch location, the runner’s speed, the runner’s distance from 2B, etc. They deem it a measure of “base stolen on the pitcher rather than the catcher.”

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, e16bball said:

That’s a pretty huge drop off after 2022. Don’t you think a good bit of that is probably attributable to some of the rule changes, though?

His pop time was 1.93 seconds in 2022 and it was 1.96 seconds in 2024. Not getting better, but pretty comparable. 

He was +1 run (above average) on SB attempts in 2022. He was also +1 run on SB attempts in 2024. Again, not better but pretty much the same. That metric (per StatCast) is based on various inputs at the time the pitch crosses the plate: the pitch location, the runner’s speed, the runner’s distance from 2B, etc. They deem it a measure of “base stolen on the pitcher rather than the catcher.”

I guess a fair question to ask is, with the new rule change, should there be more of an adjustment made to get better at catching runners?

In other words, if you are running in place, are you actually doing worse?

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess a fair question to ask is, with the new rule change, should there be more of an adjustment made to get better at catching runners?

In other words, if you are running in place, are you actually doing worse?

The question I have is how many more runs is the increased steal rate generating?

From there you can figure out if it's something you need to prioritize. 

[theobird]

10 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Kjerstad will be given a big chance unless AS comes back. Holliday will get big playing time. Not quite so sure about Mayo unless mounty gets injured. He’s only played like 10 games at first, and not very well. How much do you think he can get done offseason and ST? It’s only 1B so who knows

 

I think we trade Mounty, bring back O ‘hearn.  Almost sure that AS is gone. O’hearn will kinda serve as the caddy for Kjerstad and Mayo. I just think we have to give all these top prospects run. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/19/2024 at 12:03 PM, 1fingerwillie said:

Yes that is exactly what I said. 

Zero chance of that happening, unless he had a major injury which interfered with catching.

[Aristotelian]

On 10/19/2024 at 11:25 PM, theobird said:

I think we trade Mounty, bring back O ‘hearn.  Almost sure that AS is gone. O’hearn will kinda serve as the caddy for Kjerstad and Mayo. I just think we have to give all these top prospects run. 

Could we get rid of O'Hearn instead? Mountcastle is better defensively and doesn't need a pinch hitter in big spots. We would be weakened slightly vs RHP but do we really need O'Hearn when we have Gunnar, Cowser, Kjerstad, and Holliday? I'm not a huge Mountcastle fan but I don't think O'Hearn's platoon advantage is enough to offset the defense and then having to build the whole bench around pinch hitting for him. 

[LookitsPuck]

On 10/19/2024 at 12:02 PM, 1fingerwillie said:

Yes.

Here's the thing. It was only 46 plate appearances, but was there anything you saw from Mayo that makes you want to give him a roster spot from the jump and just point blank let him work through things?

Let's just use a 46-50 PA sample size for all the young prospects the O's have called up over the years to get an idea:

• Adley Rutschman (2022):  163 PA, 265 OBP, 498 OPS, 11 SO, 4 BB
• Gunnar Henderson (2022): 293 PA, 356 OBP, 795 OPS, 9 SO, 4 BB
• Heston Kjerstad (using 33 PA from 2023 only): 233 BA, 281 OBP, 748 OPS, 10 SO, 2 BB
• Colton Cowser (2023): 111 BA, 283 OBP, 394 OPS, 8 SO, 7 BB
• Connor Norby (32 PA w/ O's in 2024): 188 BA, 188 OBP, 594 OPS, 12 SO, 0 BB
• Jackson Holliday (2024): 114 BA, 188 OBP, 369 OPS, 21 SO, 3 BB
• Coby Mayo (2024): 098 BA, 196 OBP, 293 OPS, 22 SO, 4 BB

On the one hand, you could say to yourself: look how bad Adley looked and then turned it on thereafter. You could say the same about Colton in 2023 and how different he looked in 2024. Jackson looked infinitely better the second call up (for a spell). And Heston, well, when given play and not freak injuries has been solid.

But, if you look at all of these guys: they have a fallback. They play positions either extremely well (Cowser, Adley) or didn't have a better option and high upside (Holliday).

Mayo falls in the Norby category of players, but arguably in a worse situation. Norby can play a position serviceably (2B) and has *some* flexibility in that he can play 3B, too. Mayo doesn't play 3B well at all, currently. And at 1B he hasn't played a single game there. So, he's basically a DH.

So the question becomes: are you comfortable starting Mayo each and every day and having him play a position he's never played before (1B) knowing that he hasn't shown a proclivity for anything defensively yet *and* have to work through the offensive struggles? Or are you starting him at DH each and every day, and if so...who is losing playing time at that spot?

 

[1fingerwillie]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

 

So the question becomes: are you comfortable starting Mayo each and every day and having him play a position he's never played before (1B) knowing that he hasn't shown a proclivity for anything defensively yet *and* have to work through the offensive struggles? Or are you starting him at DH each and every day, and if so...who is losing playing time at that spot?

 

Yes. I think it is nuts to compare him to Norby.

[1fingerwillie]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Zero chance of that happening, unless he had a major injury which interfered with catching.

I agree. I was responding to someone who doesn't understand basic communication.