Jump to content

2009 vs. 2010 draft strength


Recommended Posts

If I'm not mistaken, I've read on here that 2009 isn't the greatest in terms of top talent, minus Strasburg. If that is the case, why not draft someone like Tate, offer slot money, he doesn't accept, and then just go into 2010 with the pick in what I believe I've read on here to be a deeper draft. We could have two of the top six (or so) picks next year in what could be a deeper crop.

Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to make sense with the kind of money you have to pay a first round pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 33
  • Created
  • Last Reply
If I'm not mistaken, I've read on here that 2009 isn't the greatest in terms of top talent, minus Strasburg. If that is the case, why not draft someone like Tate, offer slot money, he doesn't accept, and then just go into 2010 with the pick in what I believe I've read on here to be a deeper draft. We could have two of the top six (or so) picks next year in what could be a deeper crop.

Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to make sense with the kind of money you have to pay a first round pick.

It's a thought, but it all depends on what is there at pick #5.

If Ackley is there, you don't want to pass on him, probably ditto for Matzek.

However if Matzek and Ackley are off the board, I think that warrants consideration depending on next year's crop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh, you're losing a year of developmental time and there should be good talent there. The 2010 class looks pretty good (I sort of like 2011 better right now) but a lot of the pre-season "favorites" had disappointing years. That's perceived talent shifting over a couple of months, and the original post is suggesting rating the talent accurately enough a year ahead of time to determine that 2010 player is more valuable than 2009 player + one year of development. I like thinking outside the box -- I just don't see it working out this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Stotle. Again, just a random thought.

Now that Oklahoma has an NBA team and I've started following them, I've been following the NBA's upcoming draft which is said to be the weakest in history. Teams are going to be paying top 5 money to guys that wouldn't be top 10 picks in most years. It just got me thinking that baseball sort of offers a "get out of jail free card" if there is a really weak draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Stotle. Again, just a random thought.

Now that Oklahoma has an NBA team and I've started following them, I've been following the NBA's upcoming draft which is said to be the weakest in history. Teams are going to be paying top 5 money to guys that wouldn't be top 10 picks in most years. It just got me thinking that baseball sort of offers a "get out of jail free card" if there is a really weak draft.

Like I said, I love thinking outside the box. I'm just trying to think of a scenario where it would be more beneficial to not sign someone and go for the next-year pick. I can't right now -- but I'll keep thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I'm not mistaken, I've read on here that 2009 isn't the greatest in terms of top talent, minus Strasburg. If that is the case, why not draft someone like Tate, offer slot money, he doesn't accept, and then just go into 2010 with the pick in what I believe I've read on here to be a deeper draft. We could have two of the top six (or so) picks next year in what could be a deeper crop.

Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to make sense with the kind of money you have to pay a first round pick.

Hmmmm... then Huff leaves as a Type A free agent, Mora heats up after the all star break and get Type B, then we are stocked. Oh all of the possibilities. :scratchchinhmm:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmmm... then Huff leaves as a Type A free agent, Mora heats up after the all star break and get Type B, then we are stocked. Oh all of the possibilities. :scratchchinhmm:

Except what you are envisioning will never happen.

First, Mora has to be offered arbitration, which he has no reason to decline since he will not make more on the open market.

Same applies to Huff. Now there is a better chance he leaves but I wouldnt put it past the Orioles to resign him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Except what you are envisioning will never happen.

First, Mora has to be offered arbitration, which he has no reason to decline since he will not make more on the open market.

Same applies to Huff. Now there is a better chance he leaves but I wouldnt put it past the Orioles to resign him.

I'd be willing to be on Huff and signing him for a single year deal is not the end of the world. Mora, on the other hand, will accept arbitration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Except what you are envisioning will never happen.

First, Mora has to be offered arbitration, which he has no reason to decline since he will not make more on the open market.

Same applies to Huff. Now there is a better chance he leaves but I wouldnt put it past the Orioles to resign him.

The emoticon didn't provide the sarcasm I meant to get across, I suppose.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, what I am asking, if I draft pick isn't what you want with 5th pick money, why not wait a year and get something better.

You have no idea what will be there next year.

The difference from year-to-year is probably not worth a year of development wasted.

You give the organization a bad name if you start playing games with the players you draft (drafting someone and doing your best not to sign them).

Among other reasons, it just doesn't seem like a worthwhile endeavor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stotle,

Just a question that I'm interested in reading your answer to, is Crow worth a 5th pick in the draft? He wasn't last year, so I'm wondering if you and some of the other people that I respect when it comes to the draft think it would be smart to sign him, or wait until 2010 and draft a college player and a high school player in the top 10. That way, you get a college player that is more advanced, and a future player in the high school prospect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stotle,

Just a question that I'm interested in reading your answer to, is Crow worth a 5th pick in the draft? He wasn't last year, so I'm wondering if you and some of the other people that I respect when it comes to the draft think it would be smart to sign him, or wait until 2010 and draft a college player and a high school player in the top 10. That way, you get a college player that is more advanced, and a future player in the high school prospect.

An answer and a question:

Answer: Yes, I think Crow is worth a top 5 pick. His value is diminished from last year in that he is a year older. Still, the only players I'd definitely have above him are Stras, Ackley (if he's in CF), Matzek. Scheppers, if healthy, would rank above him for me, as well. The rest all have enough questions that you could make an argument for Crow (even with a somewhat diminished value) being worth a #5 pick. He's a talented pitcher with front-end potential.

Question: It sounds like you would be debating drafting Crow and not signing him. Is that right? If so, I'm curious how you'd go about doing it. If you just want to double-up on top talent, why not try to get some comp picks and target some signability guys? I wouldn't think you'd need to sabotage one draft in order to get the most out of the next. But I'm really interested to hear your ideas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • I doubt there is anything in the Union contract preventing MLB from using an electronic strike zone. So long as no umpires are let go or reduced in pay they would have no cause for a grievance or work stoppage. The issue for them would simply be the blow to their ego as they would lose influence over the games that they're used to having. Boo hoo.  IMO the critical reason for MLB to establish an electronic strike zone would be to eliminate the chances of a gambling scandal involving a home plate umpire going rogue in order to change the outcome of the game. I doubt a Black Sox like conspiracy could occur these days simply because players make so much money that it wouldn't make sense for a group of them to throw a game. But a single corrupt umpire calling balls and strikes in a big game could have an enormous influence on the final score. Ask the '97 Braves. Robo-umps would do away with such a possibility forever. 
    • I didn't want to say it, but since your brought it up.....I agree.   I have been involved in the fitness industry as both a person who has worked out with heavy weights for years, a company level as I used to own a supplement company, and a social media level as I know many of the social influencers involved in the fitness industry.   I can tell you that squatting that amount and even further dead lifting that amount, even for a fervent power lifter is very very rare.  Let alone for someone who weighs 180 pounds like JH, who is worth many millions,  and what makes it even more unlikely is there is no way IN H E L L that the O's brass is going to let him try and DL 700 pounds.  We are talking snap city when it comes to the back DLing that amount.  Just no way he could even do that based on his build, which is ok but nothing great.  Plus even IF he could, the Os would never let him.    End of story.   Here is one of the stronger guys I know on you tube who is around JH's weight, actually 10 pounds more, and it took years and years of training to DL 600 pounds for him.   Yet somehow a guy with JHs build is Deadlifting 700 at the age of 20?  Righttttttt lol.      
    • I'm looking at the Rays record over the past decade and I'm a bit confused over your definition of "have not won much". However, my argument is simple - teams that don't invest in payroll don't win championships in baseball. Over the past 21 years (I was going to do 20, but added the extra to include Florida's win in 2003), the average payroll position relative to the league of the eventual WS champ was 9th (see below) Year WS Champ OD Payroll rank 2003 FLA 25 2004 BOS 2 2005 CWS 13 2006 STL 11 2007 BOS 2 2008 PHI 12 2009 NYY 1 2010 SF 10 2011 STL 11 2012 SF 8 2013 BOS 4 2014 SF 7 2015 KC 16 2016 CHC 14 2017 HOU 18 2018 BOS 1 2019 WAS 7 2020 LAD 2 2021 ATL 13 2022 HOU 11 2023 TEX 9   Only three of these teams had payrolls in the bottom half of league: Florida in 2003 had by far the lowest payroll, at 25th. Their payroll climbed to as high as 18th over the next couple of years, but they couldn't maintain their success and haven't made the playoffs since, outside of the COVID season. KC in 2015 had the 16th lowest payroll, barely below the median payroll for the year. They haven't been back to the playoffs since. Houston in 2017 had the 18th lowest payroll. This was their big breakthrough year after their tanking/rebuild, and they haven't been lower than 11th since, and as high as 4th.   The trend is obvious. After the Marlins' miracle run in 2003, no team has won the WS with a payroll lower than 18th, and that team (Houston) is an obvious outlier as they were in the basically the same spot as the O's now (on the upswing from a full tear-down). While KC and Florida both had years where everything came together perfectly, they were unable to sustain their momentum. The O's were 23rd in payroll on Opening Day, and the current roster is good enough to win a championship, but history suggests they'll go the way of Florida and Kansas City if Rubenstein isn't willing to invest in the payroll. Consistently letting the talent drain out of your organization because you aren't willing to pay them won't lead to multiple championships and it won't keep fans engaged.
    • Correlation vs. Causation: The study states that there is a correlation between 1RM (one-rep max) squat and performance metrics like the 10-yard split and 40-yard dash times. However, correlation does not imply causation. Just because these variables are correlated does not mean that one causes the other.   
    • I think he's claimed and right away.
    • His Dad is a big boy and obvious lifter.  Some guys are naturally good squatters.  That’s an impressive number for Holliday, but who knows exactly how legit the actual squat is.  You can find high school kids at nearly every high school about his size with similar squat numbers.  Granted, they will be some of the strongest pound for pound kids, but it’s not a crazy number. 
    • Fair point, but these outliers are squatting like 40% more than Holliday is.  There are likely plenty of guys in the NCAA that can hit Holliday's numbers, and are in his age range.   There were like 50+ guys at this year's combine with a 10 yard split of 1.5 or better or 40 times of 4.5 or better, and 1rm squat correlates with both 10 yard split and 40 time, such that if you hit those numbers in 10 or 40, then your mean 1rm squat would be predicted to be about 2.5x body weight, which would be right around 500 lbs for a 200 lb guy.  If you want to call NFL caliber college guys outliers, I guess?  But Holliday is an MLB caliber guy, so he still fits.   Elite athletes just aren't normal, man.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...