2009 vs. 2010 draft strength

[clarence]

If I'm not mistaken, I've read on here that 2009 isn't the greatest in terms of top talent, minus Strasburg. If that is the case, why not draft someone like Tate, offer slot money, he doesn't accept, and then just go into 2010 with the pick in what I believe I've read on here to be a deeper draft. We could have two of the top six (or so) picks next year in what could be a deeper crop.

Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to make sense with the kind of money you have to pay a first round pick.

[JTrea81]

If I'm not mistaken, I've read on here that 2009 isn't the greatest in terms of top talent, minus Strasburg. If that is the case, why not draft someone like Tate, offer slot money, he doesn't accept, and then just go into 2010 with the pick in what I believe I've read on here to be a deeper draft. We could have two of the top six (or so) picks next year in what could be a deeper crop.

Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to make sense with the kind of money you have to pay a first round pick.

It's a thought, but it all depends on what is there at pick #5.

If Ackley is there, you don't want to pass on him, probably ditto for Matzek.

However if Matzek and Ackley are off the board, I think that warrants consideration depending on next year's crop.

[clarence]

Obviously, we wouldn't pass on Ackley, I'm thinking that if a true #5 talent isn't there, just make a slot offer and almost hope to avoid the signing and go into 2010 with two high picks.

[Stotle]

Eh, you're losing a year of developmental time and there should be good talent there. The 2010 class looks pretty good (I sort of like 2011 better right now) but a lot of the pre-season "favorites" had disappointing years. That's perceived talent shifting over a couple of months, and the original post is suggesting rating the talent accurately enough a year ahead of time to determine that 2010 player is more valuable than 2009 player + one year of development. I like thinking outside the box -- I just don't see it working out this time.

[clarence]

Thanks Stotle. Again, just a random thought.

Now that Oklahoma has an NBA team and I've started following them, I've been following the NBA's upcoming draft which is said to be the weakest in history. Teams are going to be paying top 5 money to guys that wouldn't be top 10 picks in most years. It just got me thinking that baseball sort of offers a "get out of jail free card" if there is a really weak draft.

[Stotle]

Thanks Stotle. Again, just a random thought.

Now that Oklahoma has an NBA team and I've started following them, I've been following the NBA's upcoming draft which is said to be the weakest in history. Teams are going to be paying top 5 money to guys that wouldn't be top 10 picks in most years. It just got me thinking that baseball sort of offers a "get out of jail free card" if there is a really weak draft.

Like I said, I love thinking outside the box. I'm just trying to think of a scenario where it would be more beneficial to not sign someone and go for the next-year pick. I can't right now -- but I'll keep thinking.

[bird watcher]

Then you end up in a situation like the Nationals where the draft pick has virtually ALL of the leverage. If you don't take the guy next year then you lose that pick.

[BringBackMagic]

If I'm not mistaken, I've read on here that 2009 isn't the greatest in terms of top talent, minus Strasburg. If that is the case, why not draft someone like Tate, offer slot money, he doesn't accept, and then just go into 2010 with the pick in what I believe I've read on here to be a deeper draft. We could have two of the top six (or so) picks next year in what could be a deeper crop.

Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to make sense with the kind of money you have to pay a first round pick.

Hmmmm... then Huff leaves as a Type A free agent, Mora heats up after the all star break and get Type B, then we are stocked. Oh all of the possibilities. :scratchchinhmm:

[Crazysilver03]

Hmmmm... then Huff leaves as a Type A free agent, Mora heats up after the all star break and get Type B, then we are stocked. Oh all of the possibilities. :scratchchinhmm:

Except what you are envisioning will never happen.

First, Mora has to be offered arbitration, which he has no reason to decline since he will not make more on the open market.

Same applies to Huff. Now there is a better chance he leaves but I wouldnt put it past the Orioles to resign him.

[crawdad]

Except what you are envisioning will never happen.

First, Mora has to be offered arbitration, which he has no reason to decline since he will not make more on the open market.

Same applies to Huff. Now there is a better chance he leaves but I wouldnt put it past the Orioles to resign him.

I'd be willing to be on Huff and signing him for a single year deal is not the end of the world. Mora, on the other hand, will accept arbitration.

[BringBackMagic]

Except what you are envisioning will never happen.

First, Mora has to be offered arbitration, which he has no reason to decline since he will not make more on the open market.

Same applies to Huff. Now there is a better chance he leaves but I wouldnt put it past the Orioles to resign him.

The emoticon didn't provide the sarcasm I meant to get across, I suppose.

[clarence]

Again, what I am asking, if I draft pick isn't what you want with 5th pick money, why not wait a year and get something better.

[Stotle]

Again, what I am asking, if I draft pick isn't what you want with 5th pick money, why not wait a year and get something better.

You have no idea what will be there next year.

The difference from year-to-year is probably not worth a year of development wasted.

You give the organization a bad name if you start playing games with the players you draft (drafting someone and doing your best not to sign them).

Among other reasons, it just doesn't seem like a worthwhile endeavor.

[clarence]

Stotle,

Just a question that I'm interested in reading your answer to, is Crow worth a 5th pick in the draft? He wasn't last year, so I'm wondering if you and some of the other people that I respect when it comes to the draft think it would be smart to sign him, or wait until 2010 and draft a college player and a high school player in the top 10. That way, you get a college player that is more advanced, and a future player in the high school prospect.

[Stotle]

Stotle,

Just a question that I'm interested in reading your answer to, is Crow worth a 5th pick in the draft? He wasn't last year, so I'm wondering if you and some of the other people that I respect when it comes to the draft think it would be smart to sign him, or wait until 2010 and draft a college player and a high school player in the top 10. That way, you get a college player that is more advanced, and a future player in the high school prospect.

An answer and a question:

Answer: Yes, I think Crow is worth a top 5 pick. His value is diminished from last year in that he is a year older. Still, the only players I'd definitely have above him are Stras, Ackley (if he's in CF), Matzek. Scheppers, if healthy, would rank above him for me, as well. The rest all have enough questions that you could make an argument for Crow (even with a somewhat diminished value) being worth a #5 pick. He's a talented pitcher with front-end potential.

Question: It sounds like you would be debating drafting Crow and not signing him. Is that right? If so, I'm curious how you'd go about doing it. If you just want to double-up on top talent, why not try to get some comp picks and target some signability guys? I wouldn't think you'd need to sabotage one draft in order to get the most out of the next. But I'm really interested to hear your ideas.