Prep Arms... No True Consensus

[Stotle]

I took the day off from the office, working from home and finishing reports on Gibson and Tate. After I was done, I spent a good 1.5 hrs reviewing video and now am stuck.

Matzek has been two on my list for almost nine months now. After watching Zack Wheeler today for 20 mins and reviewing my notes, I think he actually might be the better pitcher once developed.

Matzek is still two -- I haven't brought myself to a full change of heart, yet. But I honestly think Wheeler could be upper-90s with with a plus curve and plus change within three years, based on his mechanics, frame and arm action.

So, do you go with the kid that's close to fully baked, or dream on the upside of the kid that could be Strasburg-lite when all is said and done?

I'm still with Matzek, but I'm worried that Wheeler will continue to shrink that gap over the next four days....

Thoughts?

[QBsILLEST1]

They for the last few weeks have been my top 2 HS arms. The one thing that is a deciding factor to me is how true those reports on Matzeks fastball velocity increase are. If he is really touching 97-98 then hes my hands down choice......

[Greg Pappas]

I have to say that this draft has me a bit perplexed as to the values of the top prep arms in the draft. Tyler Matzek seems to have more confidence in him by more scouts than the others, but Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler, Matt Purke, and Jacob Turner all have their advocates and seem to be about equally valued. I've said that I believe Matzek ranks slightly higher, and I still feel that way, but I also believe that any of the other young men could wind up in Joe Jordan's Top Five.

Baseball America recently ranked the five this way (BA comments follow.)

(#=overall rank)

5. Jacob Turner... "He had edged ahead of Shelby Miller (Texas) and Zack Wheeler (Georgia) as the top high school righthander in the draft..."

8. Tyler Matzek... "With a rare blend of quality stuff, pitching smarts and ease of delivery, he may be the best prep lefty from Southern California since Cole Hamels in 2002."

10. Matt Purke... "Purke rivals Tyler Matzek as the best lefthanded pitching prospect in this draft. He already throws a 92-95 mph fastball and could throw harder as he adds strength to his 6-foot-3, 180-pound frame."

11. Shelby Miller... "No high school pitcher has a better fastball than Miller." "...and he touched 97 mph in a playoff game in late May that was attended by several scouts and Rangers president Nolan Ryan."

12. Zach Wheeler... "Wheeler... (has) a picture-perfect projection body. Lean with long levers, Wheeler generates excellent arm speed and can produce mid-90s heat with his fastball, sitting in the low 90s."

Keith Law has his top players rated this way...

5. Shelby Miller... "Miller looks the part of a stud high school pitcher and projects as a No. 1 starter given his stuff and physique." "His curveball has good depth at 76-78 mph but is mostly vertical and isn't completely consistent yet; he doesn't use a changeup, although he has the arm slot and action to throw a good one."

6. Tyler Matzek... "Matzek is the most polished of the top high school arms in this year's draft class, and in a perfect world could develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter with a legitimate four-pitch mix and above-average command and control."

7. Jacob Turner... "Turner has the biggest arm in the prep ranks this year..." "Turner will touch 98 mph and routinely sits at 94-96 mph with hard boring action. His secondary stuff is not as advanced, and he pitches primarily with his fastball. His curveball has a chance to be plus..."

10. Zack Wheeler... "Wheeler, a tall, loose-armed, right-handed pitcher, is a lock to go in the first round. His fastball comes out of his hand easy and runs from 91-96 mph with tremendous late life. His main secondary pitch is a hard slurve at 74-78 mph that is a future out pitch..."

13. Matt Purke... "Purke has been very consistent this spring, sitting 89-92 and touching 94 in just about every outing, with good sink on his fastball..." "He throws both a slider and curve; the curve has good depth, while the slider has occasional tilt but can flatten out as he gets around the side of the ball."

The outstanding folks at PGCrossChecker.com give their take on the top prep arms...

9. Tyler Matzek... "Matzek ranks alongside Texas lefty Matthew Purke as the top prep pitching prospect in the 2009 draft class, and scouts are pretty much split on which young lefthander has the edge." "Matzek's overall package is similar to Los Angeles Dodgers lefthander Clayton Kershaw, the seventh overall pick in the 2006 draft, although Matzek isn't quite as physical"

10. Matt Purke... "The scouts who think that Purke still has plenty of improvement ahead of him in his raw physical skills generally have him graded as the No. 1 prep prospect in the 2009 class. Purke's velocity curve over the past few years has been ideally consistent as he's steadily improved from a mid-80s thrower into a power pitcher who touched 95 mph..."

11. Zack Wheeler... "After putting on 10-15 more pounds, Wheeler has grown into his body." "His fastball has very good sink and downward-plane movement, separating Wheeler from other hard throwers." "He profiles as an impact No. 1 or 2 starter, or possibly a power closer."

12. Shelby Miller... "After a slow start, Miller consistently generated 94-97 mph fastballs in every start and there are no questions about his arm strength. He did not show any consistency with his curveball, changeup or command, however, and scouts feel he was pitching more to the radar gun than to hitters."

13. Jacob Turner... "Turner surpassed his 2008 Missouri prep peer, Melville, with his performance and tool-set this spring..." "He pitched frequently in the 93-95 mph area this spring, touching even higher, and showed improved consistency with his off-speed stuff."

Although these are merely a few examples, I thought a peek into these varying views would shed some light on just how hard it is to really 'know' anything.

[Stotle]

Thanks, Greg. Had I known you were starting this thread I wouldn't have bothered with the Wheeler vs. Matzek. I have been pretty set on Matzek for a while, but after reviewing video a ton today (slacked off from my REAL work ) I have to say Wheeler is closing the gap quickly. There is really nothing I don't like about him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually ends-up the best prep arm in the draft by a fair amount. I really want two picks, because Matzek and Wheeler would be a pretty filthy combo, from where I sit...

[Greg Pappas]

I took the day off from the office, working from home and finishing reports on Gibson and Tate. After I was done, I spent a good 1.5 hrs reviewing video and now am stuck.

Matzek has been two on my list for almost nine months now. After watching Zack Wheeler today for 20 mins and reviewing my notes, I think he actually might be the better pitcher once developed.

Matzek is still two -- I haven't brought myself to a full change of heart, yet. But I honestly think Wheeler could be upper-90s with with a plus curve and plus change within three years, based on his mechanics, frame and arm action.

So, do you go with the kid that's close to fully baked, or dream on the upside of the kid that could be Strasburg-lite when all is said and done?

I'm still with Matzek, but I'm worried that Wheeler will continue to shrink that gap over the next four days....

Thoughts?

I completely understand... I've been reading reports that Wheeler may be the best arm from this draft, sans Strasburg. But... it really is hard to know with any certainty.

[Greg Pappas]

Thanks, Greg. Had I known you were starting this thread I wouldn't have bothered with the Wheeler vs. Matzek. I have been pretty set on Matzek for a while, but after reviewing video a ton today (slacked off from my REAL work ) I have to say Wheeler is closing the gap quickly. There is really nothing I don't like about him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually ends-up the best prep arm in the draft by a fair amount. I really want two picks, because Matzek and Wheeler would be a pretty filthy combo, from where I sit...

I commented in your thread while you were in here. One thing I know for sure... the closer it gets to the draft, the clearer the picture gets... usually.

[Stotle]

I completely understand and just touched upon these comparisons in my newest thread: Prep Arms... No True Consensus.

I've been reading reports that Wheeler may be the best arm from this draft, sans Strasburg. But... it really is hard to know with any certainty.

I saw that and commented there -- If you can, I say merge my thread into yours (since it's the same general point). Thanks for running the ship over here -- it's appreciated.

[Greg Pappas]

I saw that and commented there -- If you can, I say merge my thread into yours (since it's the same general point). Thanks for running the ship over here -- it's appreciated.

I'm just grateful that we have such a great place to discuss these things. So many quality views... and even a few that aren't. LOL.

[atlantaoriole]

FWIW the Braves are really high on Wheeler. But then again he is a local product and the Braves are always looking to get kids from Georgia. Matzek still impresses me more than Wheeler.

[ccbird]

I took the day off from the office, working from home and finishing reports on Gibson and Tate. After I was done, I spent a good 1.5 hrs reviewing video and now am stuck.

Matzek has been two on my list for almost nine months now. After watching Zack Wheeler today for 20 mins and reviewing my notes, I think he actually might be the better pitcher once developed.

Matzek is still two -- I haven't brought myself to a full change of heart, yet. But I honestly think Wheeler could be upper-90s with with a plus curve and plus change within three years, based on his mechanics, frame and arm action.

So, do you go with the kid that's close to fully baked, or dream on the upside of the kid that could be Strasburg-lite when all is said and done?

I'm still with Matzek, but I'm worried that Wheeler will continue to shrink that gap over the next four days....

Thoughts?

This is good to hear considering in a few of the recent threads below there is some media info coming out that says the O's don't have much interest in Matzek. Wheeler should be there at #5 and a report the other day said he was up in Baltimore for an interview so it sounds like he might be the pick. Just no reach or signability pick at 5 please, JJ stick to your guns and take the BPA on the board.

[Duke2010]

Thank you, as always, for the insight Greg and Stotle for that information.

It should be interesting to see how both of these prospects develop in the next 3 years. It seems like Wheeler could develop into Strasburg-lite, while Matzek could develop into a Matusz-Plus...I definitely like what I've read today, and the Wheeler news is very encouraging, and it seems like a case could be made for ranking either guy at 1A or 1B.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Thanks, guys.

Stotle, I'm real interested to hear your assessment of Wheeler. Glad to hear you think he's that close to Matzek, because I don't think that Matzek will be available.

[Stotle]

Thanks, guys.

Stotle, I'm real interested to hear your assessment of Wheeler. Glad to hear you think he's that close to Matzek, because I don't think that Matzek will be available.

Here is my full assessment with video. Write-up as of May 25.

Here's the summary of that assessment:

Wheeler is one of the most projectable arms in the 2009 Draft Class, no small feet considering his fastball/curve is already a formidable pairing. While he doesn't have Turner's current velocity or Matzek's refinement in his secondary offerings, Wheeler could develop into a more dominant starter than either. His blend of projection, current stuff and solid mechanics place Wheeler firmly in our Top 10, and under consideration for selection at 1:5. It isn't difficult to picture him as a potential front-end starter three to four years from now, and right now he's the top high school righty on our draft board, just edging out Shelby Miller (Brownwood HS - TX).

[Three Run Homer]

I wouldn't be upset if the O's wound up with Wheeler or Turner instead of Matzek.

One question--it seems like Matzek already has established that he has three or four quality pitchers, while Wheeler and Turner have yet to show mastery of the changeup. Doesn't that mean there's more of a risk that Wheeler will wind up in the bullpen, while Matzek is more of a sure thing to stay as a starter? That would seem to be a pretty important consideration.

[baltimoriole]

I always thought that Matzek couldn't bring the heat, but after reports that he was pumping it in at 98 and 97 his last two outing, combined with the fact that he has 4 refined pitches as a high schooler makes me like him the most. Then again I haven't see any of the prep pitchers yet so whatever Jordan thinks is best I'll trust him. I hope they go top prep pitcher over a college pitcher. It's be nice to have two players who project to be top of the line starters down in the lower ranks of the system. (Bundy and 2009 top pick).