12th round - Orioles select Steven Bumbry, RF Va Tech

[makoman]

I'm all in favor of picking sons of former Orioles. But Steve's a long, long, longshot to make it....couldn't we have drafted him 10 rounds later and used the pick on someone with more upside?

I am confident that Jordan wouldn't have wasted a pick this high just because of his last name. It's not like taking Perlozzo's kid in the 35th round.

12th round picks are long long longshots anyway. Guys like Brandon Fahey are 12th round picks, and he's one of the success stories. So it's no surprise that Steve is a long shot too.

[AlBumbry]

Best . . . pick . . . ever!!!! :clap3::clap3::clap3::clap3::clap3:

[melankfo]

I'm all in favor of picking sons of former Orioles. But Steve's a long, long, longshot to make it....couldn't we have drafted him 10 rounds later and used the pick on someone with more upside?

You said it! The 12th round is not that high. Plenty of players with far better prospects went much higher. Unless there's something beyond the numbers which we don't know, this seems a terrible waste of the 12th round.

[Lucky Jim]

You said it! The 12th round is not that high. Plenty of players with far better prospects went much higher. Unless there's something beyond the numbers which we don't know, this seems a terrible waste of the 12th round.

As Tony mentioned elsewhere, apparently the kid had an incredible workout w/ the O's which made them pick him.

It's not based on his name alone.

[Lucky Jim]

Who are we to question the experts, but a great workout would be akin to ignoring a college players career and drafting him higher because he bench pressed 250 30 times.

Perhaps. My point was only that they determined he was worth a higher pick due to the workout. They didn't feel they were throwing the pick away.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who are we to question the experts, but a great workout would be akin to ignoring a college players career and drafting him higher because he bench pressed 250 30 times.

Not excusing this, or endorsing it or anything of the sort. But isn't that the basis for the entire NFL draft? I know there have been Hokie football players drafted who barely played in college, because they ran a 4.4 40 in a combine.

[Tank]

I played against Steve Bumbry in high school. He played a really good center field, but I didn't see anything out of his bat that said "pro". That was 4 or 5 years ago though. I'm rooting for him.

[allstar1579]

Who are we to question the experts, but a great workout would be akin to ignoring a college players career and drafting him higher because he bench pressed 250 30 times.

You mean like that Heward-Bey kid who had a so-so career, blew teams away during workouts and then went in the top 10?

Workouts are a lot more useful in baseball than football. There are so many minute details between swings, running, fielding, throwing and such that in workouts you can focus on those areas that you have questions about from watching tape, or seeing in a game. That stuff makes or breaks a prospect sometimes.

I don't think the 12th is a stretch for this kid, like most of our picks might have hung around another round or two, but he's got power potential and is no slouch in other areas, I won't throw around the 5-tool cliche, but he's well balanced. Flacco would be an example of drafting based on name, not Bumbry.

[SteveA]

Interesting (or meanginless) tidbit....Steve Bumbry hit a monster home run off our 46th round pick, Scott Swinson, at College Park earlier this year in a game I went to. Dead center field.

Another tidbit that probably no one but me (and Pedro Cerrano) woudl care about: Swinson is a Centennial High School alum, just as I am. Honestly, had I known that when I went to the VT/MD game in April I would have paid more attention to Swinson. We [the Hokies] hit him pretty hard that night. I don't recall him having particularly great stuff. The Hokies' starter that night, Rhett Ballard, was drafted by the Rockies. He and Bumbry were the only two Hokies drafted.

[allstar1579]

Interesting (or meanginless) tidbit....Steve Bumbry hit a monster home run off our 46th round pick, Scott Swinson, at College Park earlier this year in a game I went to. Dead center field.

Another tidbit that probably no one but me (and Pedro Cerrano) woudl care about: Swinson is a Centennial High School alum, just as I am. Honestly, had I known that when I went to the VT/MD game in April I would have paid more attention to Swinson. We [the Hokies] hit him pretty hard that night. I don't recall him having particularly great stuff. The Hokies' starter that night, Rhett Ballard, was drafted by the Rockies. He and Bumbry were the only two Hokies drafted.

You know, it's funny you say that because a) I saw that home run, and b) I've been tracking a kid that I think plays for Centennial now, friend of the family.

[DrungoHazewood]

Workouts are a lot more useful in baseball than football. There are so many minute details between swings, running, fielding, throwing and such that in workouts you can focus on those areas that you have questions about from watching tape, or seeing in a game. That stuff makes or breaks a prospect sometimes.

I think that the ability to play baseball comes out best over long stretches of watching someone. A few hour snapshot of set workouts and batting practice will miss tons of stuff that is absolutely necessary to have a career as a baseball player. To me a combine or a workout is only useful in weeding out players who have obvious weaknesses or peculiarities.

In a workout who would look more impressive: Brian Roberts or Lorenzo Scott? Probably Scott, who looks like an NFL linebacker, runs like the wind, and might even put on a nice show in BP. Roberts is a 5' 8" guy who might hit a ball 350 ft. if he gets every ounce of his strength behind the bat and has a second baseman's arm. But he's also 50 times the ballplayer Scott is.

[Tony-OH]

I think that the ability to play baseball comes out best over long stretches of watching someone. A few hour snapshot of set workouts and batting practice will miss tons of stuff that is absolutely necessary to have a career as a baseball player. To me a combine or a workout is only useful in weeding out players who have obvious weaknesses or peculiarities.

In a workout who would look more impressive: Brian Roberts or Lorenzo Scott? Probably Scott, who looks like an NFL linebacker, runs like the wind, and might even put on a nice show in BP. Roberts is a 5' 8" guy who might hit a ball 350 ft. if he gets every ounce of his strength behind the bat and has a second baseman's arm. But he's also 50 times the ballplayer Scott is.

I certainly won't argue with any of this and I know you are not saying anything bad about the pick, but in my opinion, we're talking about a 12th round pick here. Of course there are going to be some holes in a player's game when he's selected in the 12th round, but if you can take a guy with some tools who might put something together, why not take a chance?

Matt Joyce is a good example of a 12th rounder from college who had some tools and made it. Brandon Fahey is the only other college hitter taken in the 12th round who had "some" success in the major leagues and Jason Kubel is the only 12th rounder drafted since 2000 (he was taken out of high school) who has had any real success in the major leagues. In other words, the picking are slim in the 12th round so why not take a flyer on a kid with some tools?

[allstar1579]

I think that the ability to play baseball comes out best over long stretches of watching someone. A few hour snapshot of set workouts and batting practice will miss tons of stuff that is absolutely necessary to have a career as a baseball player. To me a combine or a workout is only useful in weeding out players who have obvious weaknesses or peculiarities.

In a workout who would look more impressive: Brian Roberts or Lorenzo Scott? Probably Scott, who looks like an NFL linebacker, runs like the wind, and might even put on a nice show in BP. Roberts is a 5' 8" guy who might hit a ball 350 ft. if he gets every ounce of his strength behind the bat and has a second baseman's arm. But he's also 50 times the ballplayer Scott is.

I think the usefulness of the workouts in baseball is that it allows you to get a real good view of those weaknesses that you mentioned, knowing exactly what the problems are and if it's worth it to take a shot is the key in this draft. A lot of the problems these kids have can be worked out with a year or two in the minors, but you have to know if the risk is worth it to spend developing them because they have a tool or two that you like. In these workouts you get to hit 50 groundballs to a kid and you get to see what his footwork is like, see what his throwing mechanics are like, and see if he'd be a good fit for whatever position you have in mind. I think that's why a lot of these teams will take a player and change his position the minute they draft them, because they have either worked him out at the other position, or have seen him worked out at the other position already.

I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you, sticking a kid in the minors and watching him over an entire season of course will get you a better view of a player and let you see the stuff you missed. No workout will get everything you need to see, but like Tony said, usually you just need to see that one tool in a workout to know he's worth taking a later round flier on, and that is what they are perfect for.

[DrungoHazewood]

I certainly won't argue with any of this and I know you are not saying anything bad about the pick, but in my opinion, we're talking about a 12th round pick here. Of course there are going to be some holes in a player's game when he's selected in the 12th round, but if you can take a guy with some tools who might put something together, why not take a chance?

Matt Joyce is a good example of a 12th rounder from college who had some tools and made it. Brandon Fahey is the only other college hitter taken in the 12th round who had "some" success in the major leagues and Jason Kubel is the only 12th rounder drafted since 2000 (he was taken out of high school) who has had any real success in the major leagues. In other words, the picking are slim in the 12th round so why not take a flyer on a kid with some tools?

I think the usefulness of the workouts in baseball is that it allows you to get a real good view of those weaknesses that you mentioned, knowing exactly what the problems are and if it's worth it to take a shot is the key in this draft. A lot of the problems these kids have can be worked out with a year or two in the minors, but you have to know if the risk is worth it to spend developing them because they have a tool or two that you like. In these workouts you get to hit 50 groundballs to a kid and you get to see what his footwork is like, see what his throwing mechanics are like, and see if he'd be a good fit for whatever position you have in mind. I think that's why a lot of these teams will take a player and change his position the minute they draft them, because they have either worked him out at the other position, or have seen him worked out at the other position already.

I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you, sticking a kid in the minors and watching him over an entire season of course will get you a better view of a player and let you see the stuff you missed. No workout will get everything you need to see, but like Tony said, usually you just need to see that one tool in a workout to know he's worth taking a later round flier on, and that is what they are perfect for.

My comment wasn't specifically about Bumbry, but about the hazards of relying too much on workouts. Baseball isn't a game that lends itself to snapshot decisions.

Yes, 12th round picks by definition are guys with holes and weaknesses. And yes, I could see a workout helping a team decide if those weaknesses are too glaring to bother with.

[Duke2010]

Just caught the back end of his interview on 105.7 and he said that he expects to sign tomorrow, and then he'll head to Aberdeen. He said they want him in CF to start out. Sounds like a great young man, and I'm excited to have him the the organization.