The Once and Future Billy Rowell

[Stotle]

Fair enough. Now answer me this...if he were a draft eligible college sophomore and not already in our system...given his current performance and projection based thereon....

Where would he have been drafted, if at all, this year in a weak hitters draft?

I am not sure he would have been drafted at all, but you guys are the draft gurus around here. IMO if he wouldnt have been drafted, then he is a bust already that we just hope to salvage.

This isn't a fair assumption. Rowell against talent vastly inferior (on the whole) to pro ball with a metal bat. Rowell certainly would have been drafted, and if I had to guess I'd say he would have been drafted fairly high after a good showing at Alabama.

[Cavspider]

This isn't a fair assumption. Rowell against talent vastly inferior (on the whole) to pro ball with a metal bat. Rowell certainly would have been drafted, and if I had to guess I'd say he would have been drafted fairly high after a good showing at Alabama.

Of course there is no way to know how he would have faired if he went to college, but I dont think it unfair to make educated guesses based upon how he has performed so far relative to expectations. This is a message board and speculation is what we do.

This is his 3rd year of pro-ball, right? Rowell seems to have regressed offensively, moved to a less demanding defensive position and not performed as hoped all around. Isn't it fair to say that knowing what they know now, given hindsight, he would not have been drafted very highly, if at all? While many say it is too early to give up, his performance so far doesn't inspire confidence he will rebound.

If he had gone to college, I think it fair to guess that his defensive deficiencies in the infield would have been exposed earlier with metal bats, relegating him to 1st or the outfield much sooner, reducing his value. Who knows about his bat. Since his pro performance leaves no doubt as to his projection through his first few years of pro ball, it helps value him, I'd think, since projection is a large part of what you do when drafting.

To put it another way, say Rowell would have been able to reenter the draft this spring as is. Given his pro performance to date, where do you think he would have been drafted (ranked) relative to the projection and performance of the other draft eligible players. Nothing unfair about that I dont think.

[Stotle]

Of course there is no way to know how he would have faired if he went to college, but I dont think it unfair to make educated guesses based upon how he has performed so far relative to expectations. This is a message board and speculation is what we do.

This is his 3rd year of pro-ball, right? Rowell seems to have regressed offensively, moved to a less demanding defensive position and not performed as hoped all around. Isn't it fair to say that knowing what they know now, given hindsight, he would not have been drafted very highly, if at all? While many say it is too early to give up, his performance so far doesn't inspire confidence he will rebound.

(1) If he had gone to college, I think it fair to guess that his defensive deficiencies in the infield would have been exposed earlier with metal bats, relegating him to 1st or the outfield much sooner, reducing his value. Who knows about his bat. (2) Since his pro performance leaves no doubt as to his projection through his first few year sof pro ball, it helps value him, I'd think, since projection is a large part of what you do when drafting.

(3) To put it another way, say Rowell would have been able to reenter the draft this spring. Given his pro performance to date, where do you think he would have been drafted (ranked) relative to the projection and performance of the other draft eligible players. Nothing unfair about that I dont think.

(1) This isn't true. Generally, infield positions are easier to play at the college level because you are playing against less demanding competition on the whole. Further, college programs are more likely to tolerate some deficiencies, whereas professional organizations have to develop the player with Major League production in mind (meaning even if the player is adequate at the lower levels at a position, if he doesn't project to be able to play it at the ML level he will likely be moved to a different position).

(2) How can you make this projection when he has played against older and more seasoned talent his entire professional career. Wouldn't his performance in HS and in the showcase circuit with other like talents his age around draft time be a better indicator of how he'd perform in college? Further, he was playing against the best of the best on the HS circuit. I don't see anything that would indicate big struggles at the collegiate level. Have you seen the skillsets that are able to put up good numbers at the collegiate level? Plenty of players with no real pro future and no where near Rowell's raw rools do very well.

(3) If he could re-enter the draft this year I have no idea where he would go. You're giving him the disadvantage of being older without the advantage of developing at the collegiate level and putting up shiny numbers. I won't comment on his coachability, because I don't know first hand. But Baltimore has certainly challenged him with regards to level placement -- I think it's safe to say his numbers would be much better coming out of college than they are coming out of A ball.

By the way, I'm all for conjecture, etc. I just didn't think it was completely fair to reach the conclusion you were reaching. All in discussion and fun...

[Cavspider]

(1) This isn't true. Generally, infield positions are easier to play at the college level because you are playing against less demanding competition on the whole. Further, college programs are more likely to tolerate some deficiencies, whereas professional organizations have to develop the player with Major League production in mind (meaning even if the player is adequate at the lower levels at a position, if he doesn't project to be able to play it at the ML level he will likely be moved to a different position).

(2) How can you make this projection when he has played against older and more seasoned talent his entire professional career. Wouldn't his performance in HS and in the showcase circuit with other like talents his age around draft time be a better indicator of how he'd perform in college? Further, he was playing against the best of the best on the HS circuit. I don't see anything that would indicate big struggles at the collegiate level. Have you seen the skillsets that are able to put up good numbers at the collegiate level? Plenty of players with no real pro future and no where near Rowell's raw rools do very well.

(3) If he could re-enter the draft this year I have no idea where he would go. You're giving him the disadvantage of being older without the advantage of developing at the collegiate level and putting up shiny numbers. I won't comment on his coachability, because I don't know first hand. But Baltimore has certainly challenged him with regards to level placement -- I think it's safe to say his numbers would be much better coming out of college than they are coming out of A ball.

By the way, I'm all for conjecture, etc. I just didn't think it was completely fair to reach the conclusion you were reaching. All in discussion and fun...

Wow, you are tough to pin down. Elusive I might say...I must try harder...

Ok, 1) metal bats produce prodigious blasts and exagerate player abilities dont they? Average people just hit harder with them than with wood. Therefore, wouldnt even lesser competition expose his defensive deficencies because the ball just flies faster off the metal bats? Less time to react etc.

2) His performance leaves no room for projection as to his first few years of pro ball. It is what it is. It might not be fair that he was playing up his first 2 years, but his stats are his, and he isnt playing up much now is he? And he was playing up based upon his percieved ability at the time. By saying he is unfairly being judged because he was playing up is recognizing his reduced value as well.

3) Ok, look at our draft if you will. All 50 players we drafted. How far would you go down our list before you would sacrifice one of our 2009 draftees to substitute Rowell? Would you trade Hobgood for him? How about Givens? Townsend? Etc...

Come on, I know you have an opinion other than it is unfair... You know you want to play this game! You would be good at it and it'd be illuminating to get your opinion!

Gun to your head, how far do you go down our 50 drafted before you make the trade... one for one.

[Stotle]

Wow, you are tough to pin down. Elusive I might say...I must try harder...

Ok, 1) metal bats produce prodigious blasts and exagerate player abilities dont they? Average people just hit harder with them than with wood. Therefore, wouldnt even lesser competition expose his defensive deficencies because the ball just flies faster off the metal bats? Less time to react etc.

2) his performance leave no room for projection as to his first few years of pro ball. It is what it is. It might not be fair that he was playing up his first 2 years, but his stats are his, and he isnt playing up much now is he? And he was playing up based upon his percieved ability at the time. By saying he is unfairly being judged because he was playing up is recognizing his reduced value as well.

3) Ok, look at our draft if you will. All 50 players we drafted. How far would you go down our list before you would sacrifice one of our 2009 draftees to substitute Rowell? Would you trade Hobgood for him? How about Givens? Townsend? Etc...

Come on, I know you have an opinion other than it is unfair... You know you want to play this game! You would be good at it and I it'd be illuminating to get your opinion!

Gun to your head, how far do you go down our 50 drafted before you make the trade... one for one.

1) I disagree. If this were the case why would a college infielder shift to the outfield as a pro, ever?

2) This is confusing the point, I think. If BAL had drafted Rowell in '06 and sent him to the Majors and let him hit .115 for the past two years, would you say "Now we know what kind of Major Leaguer he can be"? Of course not. I think the only thing that is clear as that things haven't been handled right in his development. It could be that Rowell isn't handling instruction well, or Baltimore isn't developing him correctly, or (most likely) a little bit of both.

3) Okay, I'll bite. Based on Rowell's tools, taking into account his struggles and without the benefit of an interview or workout, I'll say I'd select him over Townsend at 3:5. Rowell is a better athlete, giving him more defensive versatility (which is important in my mind). I also think Rowell's raw offensive tools, even with the questions, are potentially more valuable. This is, of course, assuming I'm taking Rowell to a fresh start, rather than keeping him in the same organization. Loosely, I think Rowell would equate better to an older, more athletic, Malm. That's taking Rowell's struggles into account. I still honestly believe his value is 1st round talent, but I have no idea how much developmental damage has been done over the last two years and if the Rowell/Baltimore relationship is worse off (and if so, if it is fixable).

EDIT -- also, just want to be clear that the age was the big factor for me not selecting Rowell over Givens, though this is an off-the-cuff response so I don't want it to seems like I'm coming down on Givens at all.

[Cavspider]

1) I disagree. If this were the case why would a college infielder shift to the outfield as a pro, ever?

2) This is confusing the point, I think. If BAL had drafted Rowell in '06 and sent him to the Majors and let him hit .115 for the past two years, would you say "Now we know what kind of Major Leaguer he can be"? Of course not. I think the only thing that is clear as that things haven't been handled right in his development. It could be that Rowell isn't handling instruction well, or Baltimore isn't developing him correctly, or (most likely) a little bit of both.

3) Okay, I'll bite. Based on Rowell's tools, taking into account his struggles and without the benefit of an interview or workout, I'll say I'd select him over Townsend at 3:5. Rowell is a better athlete, giving him more defensive versatility (which is important in my mind). I also think Rowell's raw offensive tools, even with the questions, are potentially more valuable. This is, of course, assuming I'm taking Rowell to a fresh start, rather than keeping him in the same organization. Loosely, I think Rowell would equate better to an older, more athletic, Malm. That's taking Rowell's struggles into account. I still honestly believe his value is 1st round talent, but I have no idea how much developmental damage has been done over the last two years and if the Rowell/Baltimore relationship is worse off (and if so, if it is fixable).

Now this is interesting. I appreciate your take on things.

[CrimsonTribe]

This isn't a fair assumption. Rowell against talent vastly inferior (on the whole) to pro ball with a metal bat. Rowell certainly would have been drafted, and if I had to guess I'd say he would have been drafted fairly high after a good showing at Alabama.

Just to think, he could have been cracking homers with the Tide alongside Kent Matthes rather than breaking my heart in the pros. I still have faith in him though.

[Stotle]

Just to think, he could have been cracking homers with the Tide alongside Kent Matthes rather than breaking my heart in the pros. I still have faith in him though.

Yeah, I'm sure Bama would have been thrilled to have him show up in the fall. Too much talent for me to write him off, though I really want to see him up close (which I haven't been able to do yet, this year).

[Owen21]

Forget about his numbers and give him a taste of AA. He may actually do ok. I would be interested to see what Rowell could do under the eyes of Moe & Komminsk. It would be more like....Hey Billy, this is AA....see how you like it....you can always go back to Frederick. It could prove to be the motivation he needs.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Forget about his numbers and give him a taste of AA. He may actually do ok. I would be interested to see what Rowell could do under the eyes of Moe & Komminsk. It would be more like....Hey Billy, this is AA....see how you like it....you can always go back to Frederick. It could prove to be the motivation he needs.

I like it. Lets start running our minor league system as a pure demeritocracy!

[Jammer7]

Forget about his numbers and give him a taste of AA. He may actually do ok. I would be interested to see what Rowell could do under the eyes of Moe & Komminsk. It would be more like....Hey Billy, this is AA....see how you like it....you can always go back to Frederick. It could prove to be the motivation he needs.

That is an interesting approach, but I don't think it'll fly with Stockstill if the reports of his horrible approach are what the staff sees. I think Hebner has some credibility for sure, but perhaps he's not able to get through to Rowell and Komminsk can. :scratchchinhmm:

Props to you for thinking outside the box.

[Old#5fan]

Ouch! The Keys score 12 runs and multiple players have multiple hits. Unfortunately Rowell goes 0-5 with 4 K's. He must be getting close to bottom.

I am starting to think this kid had no talent to begin with. In fact, I don't see how any high school non-pitcher prospect could be so highly rated as he was. I mean he was facing HS competition for craps sake. I know kids who hit well over 400 in with a slew of homers and never even got drafted at all. Since Rowell can't field he had to be drafted for his bat. Makes me wonder why as no HS kid faces regular top of the line pitching. So how did this kid get rated so high to begin with?

[ThisIsOurHouse]

What does he bat in the order now like 7th. He is becoming really hard to cheer for. As much as I want him to succeed, he just does not have the skills or mindset to be a successful professional baseball player. Hopefully he proves me wrong, but it looks like he just cannot keep up with High A pitching.

[Old#5fan]

What does he bat in the order now like 7th. He is becoming really hard to cheer for. As much as I want him to succeed, he just does not have the skills or mindset to be a successful professional baseball player. Hopefully he proves me wrong, but it looks like he just cannot keep up with High A pitching.

Yeah, it just seems like he got extremely lucky to land a huge amount of money for no actual talent. Sort of the Kyle Boller of the Orioles. In short a bum draft pick!:laughlol:

[Skywalker76]

Ouch! The Keys score 12 runs and multiple players have multiple hits. Unfortunately Rowell goes 0-5 with 4 K's. He must be getting close to bottom.

In OOTP they call this the Golden Sombrero :laughlol: