The Once and Future Billy Rowell

[nyco]

What on Earth happened to this guy?

Overhyped? Overwhelmed? I remember when we drafted him, everyone was saying he was a David Wright clone.

Help me out here. Am I too hasty in writing him off (not that I'm doing that).

Or are we all slightly bummed by the whole thing and moving on with our lives?

[Moose Milligan]

What on Earth happened to this guy?

Overhyped? Overwhelmed? I remember when we drafted him, everyone was saying he was a David Wright clone.

Help me out here. Am I too hasty in writing him off (not that I'm doing that).

Or are we all slightly bummed by the whole thing and moving on with our lives?

Looks like he's just not panning out, for whatever reason. There have been questions about attitude and work ethic.

I'm not sure if you're too hasty in writing him off. He's still young so I don't think his book can be written just yet. However, the door is closing on him and things aren't looking good. He was off to a good start this year and has cooled considerably.

I don't think many people are bummed considering Snyder is killing it, Matusz looks great and Wieters dominated before being promoted.

Had this guy been labeled our savior or something, things might be different. I've written him off, though.

[QBsILLEST1]

Ive written him off as well, to me he does not have the bat that was originally advertised. I dunno if that is because his swing was tinkered with so much that he lost his way or he just didnt develop the way expected, his swing is apparently long and slow, though he was rated as having good bat speed. Of course he is 20 Year old, but his fairy tale is about ended.....We havent taken a HS bat since then and I dunno if JJ ever will again in the 1st round unless its a cant miss kinda guy....

[Guest Big Easy]

I wouldn't write him off just yet. He's still young, and that light could turn on at any time. Also, keep in my mind that he has switched positions several times since he was in high school. Not only is he trying to learn how to hit a curveball, but how to play another new position as well.

[UMDTerrapins]

Is it worthwhile to send him to Delmarva?

[Crazysilver03]

Is it worthwhile to send him to Delmarva?

That would be a real kick to the prido for Rowell. I like the idea.

[Jammer7]

I'm not ready to give up on the kid yet. The luster has worn off to some degree certainly. Maybe a demotion is a good thing, but maybe not. I'm sure his confidence is shaken and a demotion may just do more harm than good. Maybe a "minor injury" will require a few days off and a trip to the GCL or Bluefield when their season begins. Though a demotion, if he takes it in stride, would allow him to compete against players his own age. Tough call.

He may just need to get his head clear and take the pressure off himself for a bit. He seems like a high maintenance kid who needs some success to get it headed back in the right direction.

[grady41]

See Montanez before Orioles before you write him off.

[Mizerooskie]

See Montanez before Orioles before you write him off.

I think comparing him to Montanez would be writing him off.

And yeah, I have zero confidence that he ever makes the bigs. I know, I know, he's young for his league. That excuse was fine last season, but he's at the same level this season, and is performing worse. He's also lost some of his positional value with the outfield switch.

Other than the Britton pick in the 4th round and the Berken pick in the 6th round, that 2006 draft is looking brutal for the Birds.

[Greg Pappas]

Ive written him off as well, to me he does not have the bat that was originally advertised. I dunno if that is because his swing was tinkered with so much that he lost his way or he just didnt develop the way expected, his swing is apparently long and slow, though he was rated as having good bat speed. Of course he is 20 Year old, but his fairy tale is about ended.....We havent taken a HS bat since then and I dunno if JJ ever will again in the 1st round unless its a cant miss kinda guy....

Bats are -College or HS- traditionally the best bet to become productive ML'ers. Jordan won't be precluded from taking a HS kid in R1 because Rowell hasn't developed as hoped... just yet.

Here's one thought among many...

Most 20 year-olds would just now be finishing up their sophomore year in college. If we took a draft-eligible sophomore and he was struggling at Advanced A-ball, but showed promise... would we/should we "write him off"?

We have posters who are too quick to judgment, and while obviously it would surprise said posters, what if... just what if... Billy Rowell straightened out his swing and in two seasons, at 22 years-old, showed that his once bright prospect star is still high in the sky? Is it a foregone conclusion that he cannot rebound? Could he just possibly be the player we thought we drafted, but he was mishandled, or resistant to change, or, or, or...? Could he in two years time, at a still very young 22, hit .300, crack 20+ HR's and post an 850+OPS at AA Bowie? Would anyone bet their house he's incapable of this?

He may be a bust, he may rebound in a big way, or maybe he falls somewhere in between... but he's awfully young, and I'm willing to give Rowell the time he needs to get it figured out.

[Jammer7]

I think comparing him to Montanez would be writing him off.

And yeah, I have zero confidence that he ever makes the bigs. I know, I know, he's young for his league. That excuse was fine last season, but he's at the same level this season, and is performing worse. He's also lost some of his positional value with the outfield switch.

Other than the Britton pick in the 4th round and the Berken pick in the 6th round, that 2006 draft is looking brutal for the Birds.

I understand your take, but I think it's a little early to judge just yet. I think in two years or so, the 2006 draft will be seen as a solid one. Beato and Rowell are struggling, but they are far from done. Blake Davis may yet be a solid ML reserve INF. Britton may well be the star of that draft in a few years. Ryan Adams and Tyler Henson are also far from done. They're solid bats, especially Adams, who has been hurt this year. I believe if you can get 2-3 MLers out of a draft, then you have success. Berken, Britton and Adams seem to be on track, and if Beato, Rowell or Henson figure things out then we are ahead of the game. There isn't much left after the top seven picks, though.

With Jordan's draft philosophy, other than Wieters and Matusz, it is all about a development process...and it takes time. He's going to miss some with the more raw higher ceiling kids, but when they make it we'll get better performance on the field than the usual mediocre last place birds we've come to know over the last decade.

[Cavspider]

Bats are -College or HS- traditionally the best bet to become productive ML'ers. Jordan won't be precluded from taking a HS kid in R1 because Rowell hasn't developed as hoped... just yet.

Here's one thought among many...

Most 20 year-olds would just now be finishing up their sophomore year in college. If we took a draft-eligible sophomore and he was struggling at Advanced A-ball, but showed promise... would we/should we "write him off"?

We have posters who are too quick to judgment, and while obviously it would surprise said posters, what if... just what if... Billy Rowell straightened out his swing and in two seasons, at 22 years-old, showed that his once bright prospect star is still high in the sky? Is it a foregone conclusion that he cannot rebound? Could he just possibly be the player we thought we drafted, but he was mishandled, or resistant to change, or, or, or...? Could he in two years time, at a still very young 22, hit .300, crack 20+ HR's and post an 850+OPS at AA Bowie? Would anyone bet their house he's incapable of this?

He may be a bust, he may rebound in a big way, or maybe he falls somewhere in between... but he's awfully young, and I'm willing to give Rowell the time he needs to get it figured out.

Fair enough. Now answer me this...if he were a draft eligible college sophomore and not already in our system...given his current performance and projection based thereon....

Where would he have been drafted, if at all, this year in a weak hitters draft?

I am not sure he would have been drafted at all, but you guys are the draft gurus around here. IMO if he wouldnt have been drafted, then he is a bust already that we just hope to salvage.

[geschinger]

I'm still confident that Rowell will turn it around... Less confident than I was a month or two ago, but still confident that the talent will eventually come through. I still think it is way to early to panic, label him a bust etc...

[Greg Pappas]

Fair enough. Now answer me this...if he were a draft eligible college sophomore and not already in our system...given his current performance and projection based thereon....

Where would he have been drafted, if at all, this year in a weak hitters draft?

I am not sure he would have been drafted at all, but you guys are the draft gurus around here. IMO if he wouldnt have been drafted, then he is a bust already that we just hope to salvage.

It's difficult to say what sort of numbers he would have put up in college. Being a former 1st round talent, ML teams would keep close tabs on him. But he would fall completely out of the top five rounds or so, if he were batting .228. But again, two different animals... college and pro.

[Three Run Homer]

No harm in keeping him where he is and seeing if he can get better. But the reports we're hearing about his swing are disturbing. He's not going to get better if he can't fix that.