Chris Tillman

[Why_Knott?]

With the other starting pitchers in the rotation all having various things surrounding them this off season (Millwood being newly acquired, Guthrie hoping to bounce back, Bergesen coming off injury, and lofty expectations for Matusz), one guy i have not heard talked about a whole lot is Chris Tillman.

He is the guy we are counting on to become the jewel of the Bedard trade, and reached the majors last year at the age of 21. He certainly had his ups and downs in the 2009 season, but showed promise and pitchability.

It seems that many people aren't expecting a whole lot out of him for 2010, and I have even seen him referred to as a number 4 pitcher at best.

So the question is: what are your expectations for Chris for 2010? What are your expectations beyond that?

I think next season we will see an innings eater who will throw close to 200 innings, and keep his ERA between 4.50 and 4.75. I think his K rate will improve, and his HR total stabilize as he is able to command his pitches, and get more movement on his fastball.

I think eventually Chris will develop into a solid number 2 or 3 type starting pitcher, and if he can continue to develop and command his fastball, we are looking at ace material. Also, it is good to see that command issues with him do not necessarily mean walks like with other young pitchers of the past.

Thoughts?

[El Gordo]

10- 11, 145 IN, 5.24 ERA, stint in AAA.

[Arthur_Bryant]

It seems that many people aren't expecting a whole lot out of him for 2010, and I have even seen him referred to as a number 4 pitcher at best.

So the question is: what are your expectations for Chris for 2010? What are your expectations beyond that?

I think next season we will see an innings eater who will throw close to 200 innings, and keep his ERA between 4.50 and 4.75. I think his K rate will improve, and his HR total stabilize as he is able to command his pitches, and get more movement on his fastball.

When you put it that way (bolded) he would be an innings-eater, though that's not what comes to mind when I think of him. And while 200 IP and 4.50-ish is possible, I believe that something will click during all those innings and that he'll be a much more effective pitcher at the end of the season than at the start.

I don't think he'll be a slow-developing talent. Real talent seldom develops in a slow and steady manner. Quantum leaps are more like it.

[isestrex]

I expect him to eventually be a solid #2 starter in a few years, though I think Gordo's prediction is a tad harsh for this season....

[Frobby]

To be clear about one thing: Adam Jones was the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Tillman ended up in the package but several other minor leaguers were discussed before agreement was reached on Tillman.

I saw real flashes of brilliance from Tillman last year: an electric fastball that reaches 96 mph, a 12-6 curve that has the bottom fall out, and a very deceptive change-up. He didn't always have command of his stuff. I expect to see a guy who has some brilliant games and other games where his command gives him trouble. I'd forecast an ERA in the high 4's that will be just fine for a 22-year old in his first full season of major league ball.

Once his command sharpens up, he can be a TOR starter, without question.

[Why_Knott?]

To be clear about one thing: Adam Jones was the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Tillman ended up in the package but several other minor leaguers were discussed before agreement was reached on Tillman.

I saw real flashes of brilliance from Tillman last year: an electric fastball that reaches 96 mph, a 12-6 curve that has the bottom fall out, and a very deceptive change-up. He didn't always have command of his stuff. I expect to see a guy who has some brilliant games and other games where his command gives him trouble. I'd forecast an ERA in the high 4's that will be just fine for a 22-year old in his first full season of major league ball.

Once his command sharpens up, he can be a TOR starter, without question.

I understand that Jones was the centerpiece, I said that we are hoping Tillman becomes the jewel because a TOR starter will be more valuable than a GG or All Star CF, IMO. Especially when we have a wealth of OF talent, and the pitching is what has been suspect.

[Frobby]

I understand that Jones was the centerpiece, I said that we are hoping Tillman becomes the jewel because a TOR starter will be more valuable than a GG or All Star CF, IMO. Especially when we have a wealth of OF talent, and the pitching is what has been suspect.

I have a lot of confidence in what Jones is going to become; barring injuries, he's going to be someone's starting CF for the next 12-15 years, go to a few all star games, maybe win a few gold gloves. I wouldn't say I am "counting on" Tillman being more valuable than that. I'd agree it's possible he will be, but I'd say the odds are against it.

[sangar]

The breakthrough improvement refered to seems plausible for a pitcher with Tillman's talent. I think the 7 inning 2 hitters will come more frequently this year but it won't be until the second half of 2011 that he establishes himself as one of the best.

[TyCobb]

I think Tillman is better than Matusz. I think Tillman is going to be the best on the staff this season and many seasons after.

[Sanfran327]

I have a lot of confidence in what Jones is going to become; barring injuries, he's going to be someone's starting CF for the next 12-15 years, go to a few all star games, maybe win a few gold gloves. I wouldn't say I am "counting on" Tillman being more valuable than that. I'd agree it's possible he will be, but I'd say the odds are against it.

Crazy to think that Jones is the second best CFer we have with predictions like that.

[Sanfran327]

I think Tillman is better than Matusz. I think Tillman is going to be the best on the staff this season and many seasons after.

Tillman needs to put some weight on his lower half. He's still young though. It will happen.

[Old#5fan]

To be clear about one thing: Adam Jones was the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Tillman ended up in the package but several other minor leaguers were discussed before agreement was reached on Tillman.

I saw real flashes of brilliance from Tillman last year: an electric fastball that reaches 96 mph, a 12-6 curve that has the bottom fall out, and a very deceptive change-up. He didn't always have command of his stuff. I expect to see a guy who has some brilliant games and other games where his command gives him trouble. I'd forecast an ERA in the high 4's that will be just fine for a 22-year old in his first full season of major league ball.

Once his command sharpens up, he can be a TOR starter, without question.

For a guy who claims he doesn't know anything about pitching you are spot on in what I see in Tillman. I will take it a step even further though. I see more talent potential in Tillman than I do in Matusz and that is no slap in the face to Matusz as I think he is going to be very good as well. I just think Tillman's stuff is electric, much moreso than Matusz who is more of a command/control type pitcher. If Tillman can gain better command of his pitches the sky is the limit for this young man.

[crowmst3k!]

Frobby and OldFan have nailed it.

Tillman has some really great pitches, but he needs some refinement.

From what I have seen of him his 4-seam fastball lacks life, so if he can routinely locate it low in the zone, he should improve exponentially. I heard that he was also developing a cutter this year, which should help.

He has a great 12-6 for an out pitch, this is absolutely true, and IMO it's his best pitch at this point in his career. But like I said before, he needs to augment and locate his 4 seemer to help end his reliance on this pitch (excessive curveball usage can be hell on a pitcher)

[JTrea81]

I have a bad feeling we'll wish we would have traded him this offseason.

I too expect him to struggle especially with the longball at OPACY and get demoted for Arrieta or maybe even Britton.

[Lucky Jim]

I have a bad feeling we'll wish we would have traded him this offseason.

I too expect him to struggle especially with the longball at OPACY and get demoted for Arrieta or maybe even Britton.

Fortunately, you've never watched him play, nor do you have any scouting acumen. So there's that.

Also this:

Just thought I'd throw out a few of the things that brought a smile to my face.

Bubba Brown (Roy, UT): Thanks for the legendary all-day chat. Re-order last year's top five prospects with the knowledge we know have one year later.

Jim Shonerd: Wieters, Hayward, Hanson, Price Rasmus for me.

Ben (Leland Grove): Can you rank these "M" lefties for us? Matzek, Moore, MadBum, Matusz. Thanks.

Ben Badler: Matusz, Matzek, Moore, Bumgarner

Jake (Chicago, IL): Thanks for the marathon chat guys! Would you mind picking the top three from the following group of AL hurlers? Tillman, Holland, Montgomery, Crow, Niemann, Turner, Crosby, Kelly, Hagadone, Martin Perez, and Cahill. I say Montgomery, Turner, Holland.

Ben Badler: Tillman, Perez, Montgomery

3 for 3, i'd say thats not too shabby