Chris Tillman

[Greg Pappas]

It wasn't even that rough a showing. His ERA was under 5.00 most of the time he was pitching, and rose from 4.71 to 5.40 in a rough final outing. Have him start fresh in the spring and I expect good things.

But his peripherals weren't that great...They showed his ERA to be lucky.

He did a lot of pitching with runners on base and didn't strike out too many guys. I still think he came through it pretty well. With his stuff, he will get better but I was satisfied with how he did in his first run through MLB.

I agree that Tillman performed admirably, especially weighing age/inexperience, but I still feel that using the term 'rough' was/is appropriate... even if we add 'a bit' before it.

Regardless, we agree that he will improve and I expect big things from Tillman by 2011.

[Three Run Homer]

If he can get his HR rate down to 1.1-1.2, he's going to be a rotation anchor for years to come. He has flyball stuff and will give up his share of HRs, but so did Curt Schilling--and like Schilling, Tillman should have very good K and BB numbers, so that most of his HRs will be solos.

[Frobby]

If he can get his HR rate down to 1.1-1.2, he's going to be a rotation anchor for years to come. He has flyball stuff and will give up his share of HRs, but so did Curt Schilling--and like Schilling, Tillman should have very good K and BB numbers, so that most of his HRs will be solos.

I think it is pretty hard to project any pitcher to display the kind of command that Schilling eventually developed. The guy walked 2.0 per 9 IP in his career, and had 6 seasons under 1.5 BB/9 in his final 8 seasons. That's very rare.

[Guest BrettMeister86]

Tillman, as many have said, showed flashes of absolute brilliance and ace "stuff" in 2009 at the age of 21. He had 3 needs to address in the offseason and many reports have him working on those things.

1. Put some more muscle on his frame - I remember hearing he put on about 20lbs or thats his goal for this season and he looked a little more fleshed out at FanFest

2. Fix his flat fastball - as he tired his fastball flattened out and resulted in his high HR rate he needs to spot his pitches pitch low and inside more often (a la Greinke who I think could be a good comparison for what he should aspire to be)

3. Just get more experience in the bigs. Tillman is going to be fine this year, he will give up his share of HR's like Guthrie but his curve is absolutely devastating and I think his refining of his changeup will help his progression. Pitching 5th in a rotation will help him rack up wins against non AL-Beast teams 5th starters too, I like his match ups.

13-9 4.55 ERA 167K 98BB

BUT...if he can get more life and a lil more consistent velocity on his fastball while adding size to his frame...the O's could have their #2 TOR emerge in 2010...

[Mackus]

I don't think that Tillman will have quite that consistency that Matusz will have, but I think that him at his best will be slightly better than Matusz at his best.

I do think we are going to be absolutely thrilled to have the two of them together for the next six seasons. That will be awesome.

[LookinUp]

I love Tillman's ability to always improve. His progression was amazing and consistent through the minors.

I think the kid's a baseball prodigy. Does that mean he'll be the next Greg Maddux? No. I do think he'll continue to refine his command and pitchability though, and I expect a TOR type starter out of him.

[LookinUp]

For a guy who claims he doesn't know anything about pitching you are spot on in what I see in Tillman. I will take it a step even further though. I see more talent potential in Tillman than I do in Matusz and that is no slap in the face to Matusz as I think he is going to be very good as well. I just think Tillman's stuff is electric, much moreso than Matusz who is more of a command/control type pitcher. If Tillman can gain better command of his pitches the sky is the limit for this young man.

I actually think this has a lot to do with the placement of the camera. Matusz's secondary pitches are pretty incredible too.

[bce086]

I do think we are going to be absolutely thrilled to have the two of them together for the next six seasons. That will be awesome.

That makes me giddy. Add all the other youngsters, and I just don't know what to do with myself. Following this team is more fun now than it's ever been for me.

[Lucky Jim]

Tillman's fastball isn't "flat." People keep saying that. He actually gets significant vertical movement on it. Check out PitchFX. This can be hard to pick up from a 6'5 guy who comes over the top, especially from the off-kilter angle that you get watching the game on TV, but it's there.

His problem is locating it. When he elevates, he needs to elevate up and in (and occasionally up and away). He needs to be able to pitch under the hands of hitters on both sides of the plate. He also needs to locate down in the zone.

Trea is right: if he doesn't learn to do that, he'll struggle to be a No. 3 pitcher with this team.

Where Trea is wrong: there's no reason to think that a 21 y.o. is some kind of static entity that can't make these changes, especially one who has been advanced every step of the way.

[murrayfan420]

Tillman, as many have said, showed flashes of absolute brilliance and ace "stuff" in 2009 at the age of 21. He had 3 needs to address in the offseason and many reports have him working on those things.

1. Put some more muscle on his frame - I remember hearing he put on about 20lbs or thats his goal for this season and he looked a little more fleshed out at FanFest

2. Fix his flat fastball - as he tired his fastball flattened out and resulted in his high HR rate he needs to spot his pitches pitch low and inside more often (a la Greinke who I think could be a good comparison for what he should aspire to be)

3. Just get more experience in the bigs. Tillman is going to be fine this year, he will give up his share of HR's like Guthrie but his curve is absolutely devastating and I think his refining of his changeup will help his progression. Pitching 5th in a rotation will help him rack up wins against non AL-Beast teams 5th starters too, I like his match ups.

13-9 4.55 ERA 167K 98BB

BUT...if he can get more life and a lil more consistent velocity on his fastball while adding size to his frame...the O's could have their #2 TOR emerge in 2010...

It’s been shown that after the first week or so (or even sooner) it’s pretty random what slot in the rotation you’re going to face as an opposing pitcher. With different off days, people skipping starts, people getting hurt, it’s impossible for two teams to always have their #5 starts facing each other. Also, you have to figure team’s #5 starters are the ones getting skipped the most often. So Tillman is probably just as likely to face staff ace’s and their #5 slot.

edit: I'm sure there's an article out there that explains the probabilities much better than I can, but I don't have the time at the moment.

[LookinUp]

Trea is right: if he doesn't learn to do that, he'll struggle to be a No. 3 pitcher with this team.

Where Trea is wrong: there's no reason to think that a 21 y.o. is some kind of static entity that can't make these changes, especially one who has been advanced every step of the way.

This pretty much sums it up. +1

[TyCobb]

Tillman's fastball isn't "flat." People keep saying that. He actually gets significant vertical movement on it. Check out PitchFX. This can be hard to pick up from a 6'5 guy who comes over the top, especially from the off-kilter angle that you get watching the game on TV, but it's there.

His problem is locating it. When he elevates, he needs to elevate up and in (and occasionally up and away). He needs to be able to pitch under the hands of hitters on both sides of the plate. He also needs to locate down in the zone.

Trea is right: if he doesn't learn to do that, he'll struggle to be a No. 3 pitcher with this team.

Where Trea is wrong: there's no reason to think that a 21 y.o. is some kind of static entity that can't make these changes, especially one who has been advanced every step of the way.

Not to mention a -4.8 horizontal movement on his fastball. Some of the things said about a rookie with 12 starts in the bigs is ridiculous. In 2008 he threw more ips than ever before (135.2) . Last year he threw 161.2ip. So for nearly 30 innings he was probably gassed facing MLB hitters.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Not to mention a -4.8 horizontal movement on his fastball. Some of the things said about a rookie with 12 starts in the bigs is ridiculous. In 2008 he threw more ips than ever before (135.2) . Last year he threw 161.2ip. So for nearly 30 innings he was probably gassed facing MLB hitters.

Which would comprise nearly half of his MLB innings. Frankly, I was shocked to see how many fastballs he threw above the belt, but a lot of that can be attributed to fatigue.

It's almost impossible to overstate the significance of his age. Apart from experience, it involves physical maturity. Power and strength doesn't fully emerge until age 23 or so. Until then, we haven't really seen what a player can produce. We understand that with hitters, but with pitchers it's not as obvious because most have reached physical maturity by the time we first see them in MLB.

Tillman isn't there yet. At least, he wasn't last summer. Adding 10-15 pounds of muscle would have a couple of possible effects:

1) added velocity; and/or,

2) improved core stability which would allow him to throw more accurately and more consistently, and with less effort. This would help bring down his pitch counts and help him go deeper into games, and also go deeper into the season, without becoming fatigued.

Anyone who uses his 65 IP last season as a basis for directly projecting Tillman's future is making a huge miscalculation.

[Stotle]

Not to mention a -4.8 horizontal movement on his fastball. Some of the things said about a rookie with 12 starts in the bigs is ridiculous. In 2008 he threw more ips than ever before (135.2) . Last year he threw 161.2ip. So for nearly 30 innings he was probably gassed facing MLB hitters.

Are you guys reading the vertical correctly? I think what it shows is an absence of gravity-driven drop, so his velocity and the backspin keep the ball up. When you have enough backspin and velocity, the ball can have the appearance of "late explosion" when really it is the ball not dropping on the trajectory the eye expects (though it's still downward the entire time out of the hand.

The closer to zero on a FB vert, the more "drop" or boring action there is on the pitch. I haven't done an exhaustive study but my guess is that "average" vert. movement for a low-90s fastball would be around 6-7 in.? so anything above that would have some perceived "gittup". Sort of spitballing here -- will try to look up some of this stuff when I have time.

[JTrea81]

Which would comprise nearly half of his MLB innings. Frankly, I was shocked to see how many fastballs he threw above the belt, but a lot of that can be attributed to fatigue.

According to Cameron who has followed Tillman in Seattle's minor league system, Tillman has always pitched up in the zone with his fastball to get strikeouts, that's the problem and it appears he's continued to do it throughout his professional career because it worked, until he got to the majors in a HR prone ballpark.

It's not fatigue, rather how he pitches.