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I'm not really one to second guess the manager...

The Wedge

By The Wedge
in Orioles Talk

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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Visiting my mother and only have dialup so I'm not going to spend 20 minutes reading more than the first page of this thread... but I'll chime in that I agreed with the move at the time because Wiggy hits into DPs and because it was a situation where 1 run could easily decide the game.

I think it was the right move and I was happy to see that one of our "power" hitters who isn't a speed/defense guy was actually capable of laying down a very good bunt. How many good bunts have been laid down by those types of players on the Orioles in the past decade? I'd say precious few. I realize that bunting is a littleball strategy that only should be applied in certain situations, but when those situations come up it's nice to know that we have at least one player who knows how to do it right. Even Brian Roberts, a guy whose speed means that bunting SHOULD be a part of his game, isn't a very good bunter.

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gman2388 A-Ball

gman2388

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Does anyone know the probability stats of how often a team scores with 1st & 2nd, no outs, as opposed to 2nd & 3rd, 1 out?

I would think you're more likely to have a multi-run inning in the first situation, but you're more likely to score 1 run in the second scenario.

Is that accurate? If so, I don't have a problem with Trembley increasing his odds of scoring 1 run, since it was a tie game in the 8th. Earlier in the game, I wouldn't have had Wigginton bunt, but in that situation it was defensible.

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

By this data, 1st and 2nd and no out leads to 1.573 runs on average. 2nd+3rd, 1 out, leads to 1.467 runs. Bases loaded and one out is 1.65 runs.

I don't know if there's more current data--this is from 99-02--and this doesn't say anything about the distribution of run values, but I think it's interesting how similar the averages all are. To me, since it seems to be virtually a wash, that seems to suggest leaving your hottest hitter to hit.

Of course, it's different since it was late in the game, but it was the 8th, not 9th, and I'm not sure how much you can play for just one run given our bullpen.

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The Epic Major Leaguer

The Epic

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http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html Of course, it's different since it was late in the game, but it was the 8th, not 9th, and I'm not sure how much you can play for just one run given our bullpen.

I get you, but if you're tied and it's the bottom of the eighth inning, I couldn't care how sucky the bullpen is...you gotta play for one run, and just hope you get more. There's only three outs to go. If you can't find one pitcher to get you three outs, then you're not fielding a Major League team.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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I'll be the first to admit that my thinking on this wasn't based on any empirical evidence. It's just seemed to me that the odds of getting a hit off Bard were slim, that that hit was likely to be a single. In other words, it was really based on the idea that the most likely productive outcomes were a flyball and a single, neither of which are very helpful.

I guess, in the end, as I said, it remains a pretty close call, and highly context dependent.

Regardless, Bard was awesome.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I'll be the first to admit that my thinking on this wasn't based on any empirical evidence. It's just seemed to me that the odds of getting a hit off Bard were slim, that that hit was likely to be a single. In other words, it was really based on the idea that the most likely productive outcomes were a flyball and a single, neither of which are very helpful.

I guess, in the end, as I said, it remains a pretty close call, and highly context dependent.

Regardless, Bard was awesome.

I guess...the first 2 hitters did get on, right?

But he was very impressive to get out of the jam.

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gman2388 A-Ball

gman2388

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I get you, but if you're tied and it's the bottom of the eighth inning, I couldn't care how sucky the bullpen is...you gotta play for one run, and just hope you get more. There's only three outs to go. If you can't find one pitcher to get you three outs, then you're not fielding a Major League team.

I can go with that...all the more reason it'd be nice if someone had the distribution of run values, rather than just the average, for the base/out situations.

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Mike B Veteran All-Star

Mike B

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Nothing wrong with disagreeing with a manager's decisions. That's half of what managers are for. But of course, people can't just disagree with the decision, now can they? No, they cannot. Instead, everything has to "boneheaded" and "terrible". Why? Evidently, it's because the poster is oh-so-much smarter about baseball, to the point where there is no basis for disagreeing, just condemning. What a complete load of baseless ego...

Good Post RShack. People can not understand that baseball is a game of decisions. What is worst we have some posters, who actually think they know more than the guys that make the decisions. That is what is boneheaded and terrible.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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I guess...the first 2 hitters did get on, right?

But he was very impressive to get out of the jam.

Yeah, I was thinking about that, too. As in, what are the relative probabilities of scoring in certain situations given specific types of pitchers. And then I was like "did he inherit those runners? How the hell did THEY get on?" lol.

Ah, well, what a great weekend.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Yeah, I was thinking about that, too. As in, what are the relative probabilities of scoring in certain situations given specific types of pitchers. And then I was like "did he inherit those runners? How the hell did THEY get on?" lol.

Ah, well, what a great weekend.

To take this conversation away from the poor decision for a moment and focus on Bard....He has 3 pitches...Decent but not great command...and throws hard. He was a starter and was converted to a reliever.

When watching a guy like him pitch that well late in games, I just can't help but think that DH could be that guy for us.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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To take this conversation away from the poor decision for a moment and focus on Bard....He has 3 pitches...Decent but not great command...and throws hard.

When watching a guy like him pitch that well late in games, I just can't help but think that DH could be that guy for us.

I do think that he has two plus-plus pitches (and three overall). The fastball may be better than plus-plus. He located that pitch to Scott and Reimold in freakishly specific ways for a 100 mph pitch.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I do think that he has two plus-plus pitches (and three overall). The fastball may be better than plus-plus. He located that pitch to Scott and Reimold in freakishly specific ways for a 100 mph pitch.

Yep....He is good...Boston needs a bat...I wonder if they would be inclined to move him or Papelbon as a main piece for a bat?

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