What's the matter with Zach Britton?

[taygre]

Unfortunately, that's just not true. It sounds good in theory but unfortunately, guys who are getting ground balls instead of fly balls are almost always going to be more effective in the big leagues. Obviously you do have to miss some bats and Britton does that, but guys that tend to give up a lot of flyballs in the minors mean they are usually working up in the zone. Unless you are throwing mid-90s or higher it's tough to work up in the zone in the big leagues.

Actually, it is true. An out is an out. Of course there are situations in games where you want a strikeout or ground ball HIT RIGHT AT AN INFIELDER. But every ground ball is not an out or double play. There are many combinations to get two outs without a run scoring from third. It doesn’t always have to be a ground ball double play. Many of your points and others are valid. But, everybody can not and should not be a sinker ball pitcher. But most people here and in all of baseball just dismiss anybody that does not throw mid 90’s that is a fly ball pitcher. Just short sighted. Just because you don’t get a lot of ground balls, doesn’t mean you can’t be successful in the big leagues. You have to take every pitcher and look at his numbers over a sustained period of time. If the guy gets them out, he gets them out. If he succeeds at a level then he deserves the chance to do it at the next. I am tired of hearing about ground balls. This started about 15 years ago with all the new stats. You can pitch or you can’t. Give me some guys that can pitch and I won’t question how they do it. But, for some people it just won’t be good enough.

[allstar1579]

Actually, it is true. An out is an out. Of course there are situations in games where you want a strikeout or ground ball HIT RIGHT AT AN INFIELDER. But every ground ball is not an out or double play. There are many combinations to get two outs without a run scoring from third. It doesn’t always have to be a ground ball double play. Many of your points and others are valid. But, everybody can not and should not be a sinker ball pitcher. But most people here and in all of baseball just dismiss anybody that does not throw mid 90’s that is a fly ball pitcher. Just short sighted. Just because you don’t get a lot of ground balls, doesn’t mean you can’t be successful in the big leagues. You have to take every pitcher and look at his numbers over a sustained period of time. If the guy gets them out, he gets them out. If he succeeds at a level then he deserves the chance to do it at the next. I am tired of hearing about ground balls. This started about 15 years ago with all the new stats. You can pitch or you can’t. Give me some guys that can pitch and I won’t question how they do it. But, for some people it just won’t be good enough.

Ok well look up the % of flyballs that become outs versus the % of groundballs that become outs, and then compare them with the avg. gb/fb ratio and see what you have. Here's a hint, a lot more flyballs become HR than groundballs.

There is a TON more to "being able to pitch or you can't" or there would be a lot more guys making it to the bigs. Everyone in the minors can pitch, but not everyone of them is willing to make the adjustments to stay better than the level of hitters they are facing. The ones willing to put in the work and do their homework are the ones that will be successful.

[taygre]

Ok well look up the % of flyballs that become outs versus the % of groundballs that become outs, and then compare them with the avg. gb/fb ratio and see what you have. Here's a hint, a lot more flyballs become HR than groundballs.

There is a TON more to "being able to pitch or you can't" or there would be a lot more guys making it to the bigs. Everyone in the minors can pitch, but not everyone of them is willing to make the adjustments to stay better than the level of hitters they are facing. The ones willing to put in the work and do their homework are the ones that will be successful.

Here's a hint, a lot more fly balls become HR than groundballs. REALLY?????

Everyone in the minors can pitch, but not every one of them is willing to make the adjustments to stay better than the level of hitters they are facing. Are you serious with this statement? Look, I know that most successful pitchers get a lot of ground balls. What I am saying is that you should not discount or for that matter just dismiss guys who can get guys out a different way. That is what I just don’t get. I don’t know; maybe just think outside the box every now and then. Not just jump on the bandwagon. I mean really look at a guy and see the make up and mental toughness that you need at the big league level. Look at all the guys that come up and the great ratio’s, go/ao and low to mid 90’s fastball. But they are just not very smart or can’t make adjustments in that pressurized environment. I like a guy that gets ground balls. I just don’t project him on that ability alone.

[Lucky Jim]

I mean really look at a guy and see the make up and mental toughness that you need at the big league level.

When you look at a guy, do these show up in a strong jaw? Good posture? Bushy eyebrows? Hairy knuckles? A lumpy skull?

[Tony-OH]

Actually, it is true. An out is an out. Of course there are situations in games where you want a strikeout or ground ball HIT RIGHT AT AN INFIELDER. But every ground ball is not an out or double play. There are many combinations to get two outs without a run scoring from third. It doesn’t always have to be a ground ball double play. Many of your points and others are valid. But, everybody can not and should not be a sinker ball pitcher. But most people here and in all of baseball just dismiss anybody that does not throw mid 90’s that is a fly ball pitcher. Just short sighted. Just because you don’t get a lot of ground balls, doesn’t mean you can’t be successful in the big leagues. You have to take every pitcher and look at his numbers over a sustained period of time. If the guy gets them out, he gets them out. If he succeeds at a level then he deserves the chance to do it at the next. I am tired of hearing about ground balls. This started about 15 years ago with all the new stats. You can pitch or you can’t. Give me some guys that can pitch and I won’t question how they do it. But, for some people it just won’t be good enough.

Well, unfortunately, baseball is starting to understand the importance of the groundball stat and with more and more data available through minor league stats, it's giving evaluators more data to rely on than just stats like ERA, H/9, HR/9, K/9, BB/9.

At face value, an out is an out, but good scouts understand it's how pitchers are getting outs that's important. Things they might work in AA, may not work in the major leagues where batters are the best in the world. I've seen guys like John Stephens, Aaron Rakers, Ryan Kohlmeier, Radhames Liz dominate AA batters but they never could replicate that success in the major leagues.

Because AA batters tend not to square a ball up as well as major leaguers in general, they tend to pop balls up more or hit lazy flyballs. However, in the major leagues a lot of those same pitches will end up home runs or line drives because the hitters are able to square them up better.

Guys who get a lot of ground balls normally have a lot of movement on their pitches which precludes batters from squaring them up as much. Obviously guys who can sink the ball get guys to top balls into the ground, but also guys with good run can get guys to ground out by having the ball away from the sweet part of the bat, perhaps onto the fist where batters are more likely to ground out or hit a weak pop up.

I'm not sure a true study has ever been done since most groundball data has only been available for the minor leagues over the last 3-5 seasons, but I'm willing to bet that most guys who are successful as major league starters got more groundball outs than flyball outs.

Saying that, guys who can throw in the mid to upper 90s can keep guys from squaring them up as much just due to the extreme velocity, especially if they have some movement. Guys who can miss bats up in the zone with mid-90s or higher stuff normally are fly ball pitchers because when they miss, guys will normally get the ball in the air. But they can get away with it if they miss enough bats.

There are not too many low-90s flyball pitchers in the minor leagues who will end up starting pitchers in the major leagues.

[taygre]

Well, unfortunately, baseball is starting to understand the importance of the groundball stat and with more and more data available through minor league stats, it's giving evaluators more data to rely on than just stats like ERA, H/9, HR/9, K/9, BB/9.

At face value, an out is an out, but good scouts understand it's how pitchers are getting outs that's important. Things they might work in AA, may not work in the major leagues where batters are the best in the world. I've seen guys like John Stephens, Aaron Rakers, Ryan Kohlmeier, Radhames Liz dominate AA batters but they never could replicate that success in the major leagues.

Because AA batters tend not to square a ball up as well as major leaguers in general, they tend to pop balls up more or hit lazy flyballs. However, in the major leagues a lot of those same pitches will end up home runs or line drives because the hitters are able to square them up better.

Guys who get a lot of ground balls normally have a lot of movement on their pitches which precludes batters from squaring them up as much. Obviously guys who can sink the ball get guys to top balls into the ground, but also guys with good run can get guys to ground out by having the ball away from the sweet part of the bat, perhaps onto the fist where batters are more likely to ground out or hit a weak pop up.

I'm not sure a true study has ever been done since most groundball data has only been available for the minor leagues over the last 3-5 seasons, but I'm willing to bet that most guys who are successful as major league starters got more groundball outs than flyball outs.

Saying that, guys who can throw in the mid to upper 90s can keep guys from squaring them up as much just due to the extreme velocity, especially if they have some movement. Guys who can miss bats up in the zone with mid-90s or higher stuff normally are fly ball pitchers because when they miss, guys will normally get the ball in the air. But they can get away with it if they miss enough bats.

There are not too many low-90s flyball pitchers in the minor leagues who will end up starting pitchers in the major leagues.

Tony,

I totally agree that there are not too many flyball pitchers that are successful in the big leagues. That means there are some. So, I say let's not jump up and down when somebody has a great GO/AO and can't miss bats. And let's not dismiss somebody that is a flyball pitcher that can miss bats. I also think the one component that most guys don't talk about that good scouts know is very important is makeup.

[Tony-OH]

Tony,

I totally agree that there are not too many flyball pitchers that are successful in the big leagues. That means there are some. So, I say let's not jump up and down when somebody has a great GO/AO and can't miss bats. And let's not dismiss somebody that is a flyball pitcher that can miss bats. I also think the one component that most guys don't talk about that good scouts know is very important is makeup.

Actually, good scouts know there are a lot of important things including makeup, stuff, consistency, delivery, mound presence, fielding, time to home, ability to keep stuff from the stretch and good old fashion velocity and movement of pitches.

I don't just dismiss a pitcher for being a flyball pitcher. I do however have concerns about flyball pitchers without a good fastball. John Stephens was a flyball pitcher who missed a ton of bats in AA.

[Stotle]

Ok well look up the % of flyballs that become outs versus the % of groundballs that become outs, and then compare them with the avg. gb/fb ratio and see what you have. Here's a hint, a lot more flyballs become HR than groundballs.

There is a TON more to "being able to pitch or you can't" or there would be a lot more guys making it to the bigs. Everyone in the minors can pitch, but not everyone of them is willing to make the adjustments to stay better than the level of hitters they are facing. The ones willing to put in the work and do their homework are the ones that will be successful.

Groundballs, however, are more likely to be a basehit than are flyballs. Which is why it doesn't work to JUST be a groundball pitcher. You need to miss bats at a reasonable rate, as well...or you're left with the tightrope profile of a Bergie.

[allstar1579]

Groundballs, however, are more likely to be a basehit than are flyballs. Which is why it doesn't work to JUST be a groundball pitcher. You need to miss bats at a reasonable rate, as well...or you're left with the tightrope profile of a Bergie.

You are correct. I started down the road of an argument, where I eventually would have gotten into how you can't be too much of either, how you can give up less hits as a FB pitcher but they hurt you more XBH and all, and no matter what kind of pitcher you are you have to miss bats...blah blah blah. You know that I'm a fan of the mental side of pitching too, so it could have been a good one. Had things all worked out in my head, and then you know real life happened and I realized it really wasn't worth my time to get into so I just let it go.

[taygre]

Groundballs, however, are more likely to be a basehit than are flyballs. Which is why it doesn't work to JUST be a groundball pitcher. You need to miss bats at a reasonable rate, as well...or you're left with the tightrope profile of a Bergie.

Better be careful. You are going to ruffle a lot of feathers with that one.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Better be careful. You are going to ruffle a lot of feathers with that one.

Don't worry, Stotle can handle the heat. He's an accomplished feather-ruffler.

[LookinUp]

This thread should be made a sticky and required reading for all members of OH. The only things that aren't specifically mentioned are the K and BB rates, though missing bats implies the point.

[Tony-OH]

Better be careful. You are going to ruffle a lot of feathers with that one.

No he's not, because no one here is saying that a being a ground ball pitcher is the only thing that is important. I know where Stotle is coming from and I know his reservations about Britton. I also know that he hasn't seen Britton throw live in the last two years and if he did, he's probably have a different take. He's a good enough evaluator that if he saw Britton's stuff, he'd know why scouts love him now and why he's starting to get that top prospect love from BA.

A lot of it has to do with his heavy sinker/slider combo and his ability to induce groundballs, but it also has to do with the fact that he started to miss bats the last few seasons.

[Hank Scorpio]

No he's not, because no one here is saying that a being a ground ball pitcher is the only thing that is important. I know where Stotle is coming from and I know his reservations about Britton. I also know that he hasn't seen Britton throw live in the last two years and if he did, he's probably have a different take. He's a good enough evaluator that if he saw Britton's stuff, he'd know why scouts love him now and why he's starting to get that top prospect love from BA.

I lot of it has to do with his heavy sinker/slider combo and his ability to induce groundballs, but it also has to do with the fact that he started to miss bats the last few seasons.

Britton might not breeze through Bowie without blinking, but I'd attribute at least a little bit of his mildly rocky start to trying to embrace and implement the changeup. That's a very important piece to his future puzzle.

[Tony-OH]

Groundballs, however, are more likely to be a basehit than are flyballs. Which is why it doesn't work to JUST be a groundball pitcher. You need to miss bats at a reasonable rate, as well...or you're left with the tightrope profile of a Bergie.

Perhaps, but I'd rather give up a single than a homer. I agree with your point about missing bats but you'll have a hard time convincing anyone but our new friend here that being a flyball pitcher is better than a groundball pitcher.