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The Case for Joe Gunkel


LookitsPuck

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Joe Gunkel might have an odd name, but he might be a decent #5 for the Orioles this year in replace of Mike Wright.

With the Orioles rotation in a serious state of flux, there might be a decent option in Joe Gunkel.

Starting tomorrow is Yovani Gallardo. Far from a sure thing health or stuff wise, Gallardo is going to be given every chance to fail. After all, it took Ubaldo over 2 months to be booted from the rotation. The rotation sets up as follows:

Chris Tillman

Kevin Gausman

Tyler Wilson

Yovani Gallardo

????

As everyone knows, the O's called up Odrisamer Despaigne. He's a candidate for the #5 spot as well. But focusing on Joe Gunkel for a second.

Gunkel has put up solid numbers for Bowie and Norfolk.

In 2015 w/ Bowie: 2.59 ERA in ~104 IP with a 1.3 BB/9 and 6.0 SO/9. The strikeout rate isn't anything to write home about, but his hit rate and homer rate is pretty solid (7.3 and 0.6). Put this together and we're looking at a WHIP at 0.958 in 2015.

Gunkel started 2016 with Bowie and eventually Norfolk putting together a combined 3.44 ERA in ~52 IP with a 5.3 SO/9 and 1.5 BB/9. Hit and homer rate were similar to 2015: 8.8 and 0.7.

Aside from 1 clunker w/ the Tides, he's put up some pretty stellar numbers:

9 games, 55 IP, 12 ER, 48 H, 8 BB, 35 SO which ends up netting out the following numbers:

1.96 ERA, 6 IP/start, 7.9 H/9, 1.3 BB/9, 5.7 SO/9 with a 4.4 SO/BB ratio and a 1.018 WHIP.

The main reservations w/ Gunkel is certainly the strikeout rate. A lot of his minor league numbers read a lot like Tyler Wilson's. It looks like Gunkel has better overall control, but not by too much.

With Wright in the minors and Ubaldo banished to the bullpen (and perhaps elsewhere), there's a starting spot and potentially a long relief spot available on the club. It looks like Despaigne and Gunkel could be that unless Buck still believes in TJ McFarland.

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But he's not a PROOOOSSSSSSPPPPEECT!!! WAHHHHHHHH

Actually, I believe that the Orioles DO view Gunkel as a prospect, which is why I suspect that they are a little hesitant to add him to the 40-man roster and bring him up just yet.

He was excellent for AA-Bowie last year, and very solid but not quite spectacular so far for AA-Bowie (4 starts) and AAA-Norfolk (9 starts) so far this season.

In my rat's ass of an opinion, he's very close but not quite there yet. That is what guys like Despaigne and Worley there for ...... veterans who can do a reasonably good job to tide the team over until bona-fide prospects like Christopher Lee and Joe Gunkel are ready.

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Actually, I believe that the Orioles DO view Gunkel as a prospect, which is why I suspect that they are a little hesitant to add him to the 40-man roster and bring him up just yet.

He was excellent for AA-Bowie last year, and very solid but not quite spectacular so far for AA-Bowie (4 starts) and AAA-Norfolk (9 starts) so far this season.

In my rat's ass of an opinion, he's very close but not quite there yet. That is what guys like Despaigne and Worley there for ...... veterans who can do a reasonably good job to tide the team over until bona-fide prospects like Christopher Lee and Joe Gunkel are ready.

P.S. I'm not necessarily completely against bringing Gunkel up now. That is simply my interpretation of what's happening. For all I know, the Orioles may think that he IS ready, and may add him to the 40-man roster and bring him up within a week or two. I'm just generally conservative with the promotion of pitchers that I believe have a chance at a solid Major League career, which I believe that Gunkel does. The Gunkel-for-De Aza trade may wind up being one of the good ones for this organization when all is said and done ...... in fact, the trade in which we acquired De Aza (for 2 minor Leaguers) the year before (2014) is looking good in hindsight, as well.

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A big thing to consider is that whoever is the 5th starter they will face the Padres their first two starts. So they won't be facing the Jays and Sox. Those are winnable games. I'd favor Despaigne over Gunkel for those two starts. Then see what happens. Not a knock on Gunkel by any means, just think that Despaigne is the better/safer play at the moment.

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